CFB DeptHITS: Friday, December 27
We have transfer portal news you'll want to know about and then 'quick previews' and full 'Game Cards' for the five-game slate of bowl action today.
Today we’ll focus our attention dually on some of the bigger portal news and trends we are seeing, along with ‘quick previews’ and full-on ‘Game Cards’ for the five-game slate of bowl action today and tonight. We have a full day of football and those days are waning. We need to enjoy and savor them. Say what you want about bowl games, they are football games and these coaches and players care about them.
|||||| PORTAL NEWS TO KNOW
Washington ::: LB Taariq Al-Uqdah [15.8] is at the very top of our linebacker ratings and is headed to the other side of the Apple Cup. He is headed to Seattle to join the Huskies after two really solid seasons for the Cougars. With head coach Jake Dickert headed to Wake Forest, he no doubt tried to get his star linebacker to come cross-country with him, but Al-Uqdah is staying in the Pacific Northwest.
Nevada ::: S Hayden McDonald [13.9] is heading from the Ivy League (Columbia) to Reno to join the Wolfpack. McDonald was amongst the hightest-rated players looking to level up from FCS after a break through 2024 season. A big get for Nevada.
UNLV ::: The Rebels pick up a commitment from WR JoJo Earle, leaving TCU for Vegas. He came to the Horned Frogs from Alabama where he was a highly regarded recruit back in 2021. He just hasn't panned out anywhere as he couldn't crack the rotation and get consistent looks. Maybe a drop down to the group of five is the answer to unlock his potential? He’s running out of time to show us something.
Texas State ::: WR Tyrin Smith is heading to San Marcos to join the fast and fun Texas State offense in 2024. He comes to the Bobcats from Cincinnati (via UTSA) and has had some trouble finding his footing after a breakout 2022 campaign with the Roadrunners, where he caught 71 passes for over 1,000 yards and seven touchdowns. He'll look to find that magic again in 2025. A high-upside pickup for GJ Kinne and company.
Florida State ::: The Seminoles continue their portal raid and are clearly focused on bulking up the trenches. They get more offensive line help with Wake Forest transfer center Luke Petitbon [14.2] headed to Talahassee. He will take over for Maurice Smith [12.7] and is a significant upgrade. The 'Noles have added four offensive linemen via the portal this cycle so far.
Virginia Tech ::: The Hokies get a big pickup for the offensive line as West Virginia transfer Tomas Rimac [14.9] announced his intention to head to Blacksburg for 2025. He was the full-time left guard for the Mountaineers and has one year of eligibility remaining. Even with this addition, the Hokie line has taken a net hit with LT Xavier Chaplin [14.3] (Auburn) and C Braelin Moore [13.7] (LSU) headed out.
Tulane ::: The Green Wave get a commitment from C Jack Hollifield [14.3] to come in via Appalachian State. He was the Mountaineers starting center and is the presumed replacement for Vincent Murphy [13.9] next year.
UTEP ::: The Miners are losing a good one on the defensive line as Maurice Westmoreland [14.0] is hitting the portal. He came to El Paso from the JUCO ranks and was a force, racking up 32 tackles, 21 hurries and eight sacks this season. His partner in crime, Kyran Duhan [14.3] is heading to Oklahoma State and the Miners' have work to do to replace those two who were their two best defensive players.
|||||| BOWL GAME QUICK PREVIEWS AND GAME CARDS
We have a five-game slate today and with the portal and opt outs really hitting some of these teams hard, let’s see where the chips fall and get you some Model predictions to help make some money-making decisions today…
Quick Preview: Navy is coming off the impressive win over Army and gets a big-time name brand opponent in the Armed Forces Bowl. Oklahoma has been ravaged by injury all season and now they enter with some ‘opt out’ issues as well. The overall edge still favors the Sooners and both defenses have the edge on the offenses. One thing that the ‘Game Card’ points out to keep an eye on is the Navy defensive front seven with a nice sized advantage of the much maligned OU offensive line. The line has moved from opening at OU -6.5 down to the Sooners advantage under a field goal due to all of the player availability news. Our model spits out a 3-point win for Navy in this one, 21-18.
Plays: That puts a lean to Navy +2.5, plus a ML sprinkle and UNDER 43.5.
Quick Preview: This is an intriguing matchup featuring programs on the rise. Despite Vandy’s three-game losing streak to end the season, they posted a validating (and damning) win over Alabama and lost to Texas by just three points. Georgia Tech played in an epic battle to end the regular season at Georgia, losing after eight overtimes. The Yellow Jackets got their signature win over Miami in week 11. Both played equally tough schedules and both also look to have deserved a bit better fate than their 7- and 6-wins respectively. Georgia Tech has a few injury concerns to watch out for as CBs Zachary Tobe and Rodney Shelley are questionable to go. LB Kyle Efford is going to sit it out as well. The ‘Game Card’ shows a slight advantage to the Yellow Jackets in the trenches and that is where this game may be won (or lost). Ultimately, the Model gives us a 3-point victory for Georgia Tech, 27-24.
Plays: Vegas has it right as the model on the spread and total. We don’t recommend any big plays here. Just enjoy a good football game.
Quick Preview: This is one of those games that we are missing quite a few players due to opt outs and general portal movement. We won’t list them here because we said this would be ‘quick’. One thing to track is whether or not Texas Tech RB Tahj Brooks plays in this game. He is a potential opt out and is a big offensive weapon for the Red Raiders. The Tech offensive line has been hit hard by the portal and they will have a brand new left side with Jacob Ponton likely starting at left tackle and Nick Fattig starting at left guard. Based on our player ratings, this is not a big drop-off and we shouldn’t see it be a huge impact on the final score. The Raiders will be without starting QB Behren Morton for this one due to injury, so we’ll see true freshman Will Hammond under center. He has seen a little action, so he should be ready for the test. Though, he won’t have all of his weaponry with so many players unavailable (or potentially unavailable). Vegas is still giving Texas Tech the slight advantage but we don’t agree. It could be that the Razorbacks have the bigger names on the opt out list and it’s driving it — after the dust settles, our Model still gives Arkansas a victory by a touchdown, 37-30.
Plays: So many variables go into these types of plays, but our system is designed to try to determine who remains with an advantage due to our player ratings and playing time projections. Therefore, we really tend to like Arkansas getting a point and a half (while you can get it), play that ML and grab the OVER 52.5.
Quick Preview: Unlike the game before it (above), this one is very one-sided when it come to player availability. Vegas has taken full notice and given the Orange an 18-point spread. The Cougars lost most of their coaching staff and double-digit starters between both sides of the ball. Meanwhile, Syracuse head coach Fran Brown says that ‘we don’t opt out around here’ and expects most everybody to play. Aye. Take away the fact that the Cougars are a shell of their former selves, they played a really light schedule and managed eight wins (which by our dWIN metric, were all deserved). Meanwhile, Syracuse was lucky to get to nine wins, but nothing should be taken away from them. They finished winning four of five and made some headlines along the way. Our Model sees a blowout — even beyond what Vegas is giving the Cougars and Brown doesn’t seem like the type to take the foot off the gas. Thus, a 46-19 victory is projected and that’s rare in our rather conservative simulation model.
Plays: Obviously, projecting a 27-point win has the play on the Orange laying 18 points. The lean would be to the OVER 59.5 as well, but not as confident in that one.
Quick Preview: The storyline from the A&M side in this one is that their top three defensive linemen, Nic Scourton, Shemar Stewart and Shemar Turner are all opting out. That gives them less ammunition to attack the USC offensive line, which has a glaring weakness at right tackle with Tobias Raymond likely getting the start out there. Mike Elko has the depth to get more talent in game and wreak havoc in the USC backfield. Trojans QB Jayden Maiava is mobile and may need to improvise a little to make this work. This offense will also will be without starting RB Woody Marks and will be replaced by Bryan Jackson, a true freshman, as Quinten Joyner has hit the Portal. One thing we can say about the Trojans largely disappointing 2024 season is that they played one of the tougher slates in all the land. Utah State was the lone non-power four opponent, who they disposed of 48-0 back in week two. A&M lost their last three SEC games to South Carolina, Auburn and Texas. Looking at the ‘Game Card’ we can see the Aggies controlling the game on the ground with Amari Daniels and Reuben Owens. The other edge that is glaring is the aforementioned pass rush (11th ranked) against the USC pass protection unit (97th). When all is said and done, the model sees a 34-29 win for the Aggies.
Plays: The line is right about on with our odds maker friends, so we don’t see a big play on the spread, though, we’d lean A&M if we had to choose. The play appears to be on the OVER 52.
That’s our show for today. Enjoy the games. And, if you so choose to partake in some gambling, get that good mojo going by doing us a favor and sharing/liking/subscribing/all the things that really helps us out. Thank you.