CFB DeptHITS: Friday, January 3
Let's get a look at the player movement news between big-time NFL announcements and portal commitments. Plus, we'll get you the previews and 'Game Cards' for the two bowl games today...
Today, we’ll focus in on some of the bigger news coming out of the last 24 hours regarding player movement between two big declarations for the NFL Draft and portal moves. Plus, two more bowl games today that look very different. We’ll get you what you need to know heading into those with the ‘quick preview’ and ‘Game Card’ links…let’s go!
|||||| DRAFT DECLARATIONS AND PORTAL MOVES
Alabama ::: QB Jalen Milroe [17.9] has announced his intentions to enter the NFL Draft in 2025. There was some question as to whether he would go the professional route, rejoin the Tide or even possibly enter the Portal. His answer was given on Thursday. Kalen DeBoer likely will look to bring in somebody to compete with Ty Simpson [14.7] and/or Austin Mack [11.7], who came with him from Washington.
Syracuse ::: RB LeQuint Allen [16.1] is leaving a year of eligibility on the table as he announced his intention to enter the NFL Draft. He was a big part of the Syracuse offense, both running (over 1,000 yards and 16 touchdowns) and receiving (64 catches for 529 yards and four touchdowns). A big loss for the Orange.
Rutgers ::: A big get for Greg Schiano's defense is EDGE Eric O'Neill [16.2] is heading to Piscataway after his ascension to the top of the portal rankings at James Madison, via Long Island University. O'Neill put up eye-popping numbers in his one season at JMU, including 14 sacks and 38 hurries.
Also, S Jett Elad [12.7] is set to join his fourth school for his final year of eligbility. He's moving from Las Vegas and UNLV to Rutgers for the 2025 season. He was with Barry Odom and the Rebels this year and was heavily involved. He was originally a class of 2019 recruit who spent time at a JUCO and appears to have been the recipient of an extra year of eligibility thanks to Diego Pavia.
Purdue ::: WR Charles Ross [11.7] has picked his fourth school as he leaves USC to head to West Lafayette and join Barry Odom's Boilermakers. He started his career at Nevada, before moving to San Jose State where he made some strides with the Spartans. He managed just one catch in LA this season. He has one year left to top his career-highs of 26 catches, 347 yards and two touchdowns.
Illinois ::: The Illini continue the momentum from their upset Bowl win over South Carolina with the signing of former West Virginia WR Hudson Clement [14.5] to come to Champaign to help ease the pain of big losses at the position. With leading receivers Pat Bryant and Zahkari Franklin heading to play on Sundays, the Illini will need some more talent for 2025. Clement is a good one and he joins Justin Bowick as the first two additions on the outside.
Texas A&M ::: Mike Elko and company have some work to do to build up that defensive line that is losing quite a bit from the front line. They have already secured commitments now from four defensive linemen, and the latest may be the best one yet -- DE Tyler Onyedim [14.2] is headed to College Station from Iowa State. He played 35 snaps per game for the Cyclones and while he didn't record a sack, he did produce 15 hurries and chips in on the run defense quite nicely [15.2].
Memphis ::: So much attention is given to that Memphis offense and it's well deserved. Coach Ryan Silverfield knows that he needs a well-rounded team to continue this run for the Tigers. In that spirit, they landed their 10th defensive player in the portal and it's DL Rayyan Buell [12.9] from Colorado (via Ohio). Buell played in just four games this season to preserve a redshirt and now moves to Memphis looking to make a big impact with likely two seasons of eligibility remaining.
|||||| QUICK PREVIEWS AND GAME CARDS
Quick Preview: The First Responder Bowl features the Texas State Bobcats (7-5) from the Sun Belt, taking on the North Texas Mean Green (6-6) out of the American. The AAC has had quite a run in Bowl season, but can they keep it going as a heavy underdog in this one? The first thing that sticks out to us is the difference in strength of schedule. North Texas played a much tougher slate (ranked 87th in SOS+) than did the Bobcats (124th). That said, the dWINs metric says that UNT should not even have been a bowl team and were closer to a 5-win team this season, taking out the luck and fortunate bounces the season brought along. The Mean Green ended up losing five of their last six games after what appeared to be a promising start. They were also ravaged by injuries this season. When the dust settles on everything, the edges all point the Bobcats way and with a beautiful day expected in Dallas today, we should see some points put up on the board, despite some question marks about player availability. Texas State QB Jordan McCloud playing is a big part of it. We do expect to see him under center and leading this fast and fun Texas State offense. North Texas will try to keep pace without their starting quarterback and turn to true freshman Drew Mestemaker. We don’t have a lot of data on him.
Model Prediction:
Picks: As mentioned, it appears there could be some points scored here and with the Model having the spread right around what Vegas has (Texas State -13.5), we’ll sit that side out. We would suggest a 1/2 UNIT play on the OVER 62.5.
Quick Preview: We should rename this one the “Opt Out Bowl” as both sides are missing a good number of key players. That’s where our data-driven approach becomes most useful. Who is more impacted with so many key names sitting this one out. Check that ‘Game Card’ (link below) for the names and ratings of those players. Before that, these teams were very similar despite competing in the Big Ten and ACC respectively. Both played right around a top-45 strength of schedule (SOS+). Both earned their wins, though, dWINs says that the Hokies deserved better than the six wins they posted. So, let’s get to the matchups when all is settled on the matchups. It’s pretty clear that the Hokies are missing much more talent from the opt outs and the current 9-point line may not be enough to cover it all up.
Model Prediction:
Picks: Looks like there is an opportunity to jump on the Gophers (-9) with some room to spare. The Model sees quite a big difference in the remaining talent left in these rotations. The total is closer to the spread, so we’ll lean UNDER 42.5 but not an official play.
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