CFB DeptHITS: Saturday, January 4
One more bowl game before the focus turns fully to the final four of the CFP, while the portal remains in full flight. Get everything you need to know from the past 24 hours right here.
Welcome to the day of the final bowl game of the season. It’s been a fun ride and we hope you have enjoyed our ‘quick previews’ and ‘Game Cards’ for each of them. We will continue to hone those content pieces and expect bigger and better things come next season. We’ll get you that final one for the Bahamas Bowl, following some portal news you’ll want to know and a check-in on what’s going on with portal quarterbacks as we stand today…enjoy!
[ Note: the number in the brackets is our player rating out of 20 ]
|||||| PORTAL UPDATES
Kansas State ::: The Wildcats add a brusing running back in Gabe Ervin Jr. [13.0] from Nebraska. He joins a pretty loaded room with both Dylan Edwards [13.9] and Joe Jackson [13.2] returning for 2025, he could carve out a role as a short-yardage and/or goalline back. He has suffered two season-ending injuries in his career and has one season remaining.
Tulane ::: Head coach Jon Sumrall needs to fill a void at the running back position with Makhi Hughes moving on and he got a pretty darn good one in Louisville transfer Maurice Turner [14.7]. Turner played in just four games this season as he was surpassed by freshman Isaac Brown on the depth chart. He'll now looks to spend his final year with less competition for carries in New Orleans. That said, there should be some of that competition from Zuberi Mobley [13.6] from FAU.
UCF ::: Scott Frost gets a commitment from former Indiana and Tennessee QB Tayven Jackson [14.1]. He joins now what appears to be a battle with incumbent Dylan Rizk [14.3] still currently on the roster, possibly holdover Jacurri Brown [13.1] and Cam Fancher [12.6], who transferred in from FAU earlier this portal cycle. Jackson showed well in a stint filling in for the injured Kurtis Rourke this season. He'll now battle to win that coveted job in Orlando. It remains to be seen who sticks around to battle with him.
Appalachian State ::: The Mountaineers also snag QB AJ Swann [12.5] from the portal to likely take over as the starter in Boone for new head coach Dowell Loggains. The former Vanderbilt and LSU quarterback saw some action for Vandy in 2023 but was stuck behind a lot of talent in Baton Rouge. He moves down a level to get back on the field and should be in a good situation assuming he wins the job.
Whoever wins that starting job won't be throwing to Kaedin Robinson [13.6], a reliable slot receiver for the Mountaineers this season catching 53 passes for 832 yards and two touchdowns. Robinson came to Boone after a stint at UCF. He has one season of eligibility remaining.
Miami (FL) ::: The Hurricanes need a replacement for starting center Zach Carpenter [13.2] whose eligibility runs out after this season. So, they nabbed James Brockermeyer [13.1], whose stay at TCU lasted just one season. They aren't exactly leveling up at the position, but should maintain a similar production from the important offensive line spot.
Wisconsin ::: Badgers head coach Luke Fickell clearly has an agenda this off-season and at the top of the list is bulking up that defensive line. He added another big-time potential portal player LSU's DT Jay'Viar Suggs [15.0] on Friday. Suggs joined the Tigers after a run at the Division II level. He showed well on the big stage despite being buried on the depth chart and playing just over 11 snaps per game. He's looking for a bigger role and should get that in Madison in his final season.
Wake Forest ::: A notable pickup for the Wake Forest defensive line as Jake Dickert starts to hit the portal and bring some talent infusion to this roster. EDGE Nuer Gatkuoth [12.7] is a bit underrated and battled injuries this season which brought his rating down a bit. Looking at 2023, he was a rising star with 29 pressures on the quarterback. His PFF grades show him as a really helpful run stuffer on the edge, which is certainly a valuable characteristic.
Purdue ::: This signing may float a bit under the radar, but Akron's EDGE CJ Nunnally IV [13.6] was one of the few bright spots on the Akron defense. He racked up 13 sacks in two seasons there and now joins Barry Odom's Purdue defensive unit for 2025.
Odom also went out and brought a familiar face to his new home with LB Mani Powell [12.2] signing on with the Boilers. He was at both Arkansas and UNLV with Odom. His numbers and ratings don't jump off the page, but he certainly appears to be have some potential. He's going to need to improve his tackling [8.8] if he wants to make an impact in the Big Ten.
Alabama ::: DL/LB Jeremiah Alexander [13.6] has been buried in the Crimson Tide's depth chart for some time now. He posted his career-high snap count (21) in the bowl game against Michigan a few days ago after being a highly touted four-star recruit out of Alabaster, AL in the class of 2022. He's looking for a new home and a better chance to see the field. He's one we'll be watching his whereabouts for 2025.
|||||| BAHAMAS BOWL PREVIEW / GAME CARD
The Bowl season is a grind. But, certainly a good grind. It comes to a close this morning with an early kick from the Bahamas as Liberty and Buffalo go head-to-head and we have one more ‘quick preview’ and ‘Game Card’ for you, before we turn our focus to the final three games of the College Football Playoff…
Quick Preview: If nothing else, we know weather won’t play a big factor in this one from Nassau, Bahamas. The Bulls and Flames could be stuck in some bad weather at home, but instead are in one of the most beautiful places in the world. Will the football on the field be as beautiful? We’ll just have to see about that. The Bulls come into this one riding a four-game win streak to finish up the season, but our SOS+ metrics shows that that stretch featured games against some of the worst competition in FBS football. Still, eight wins is an accomplishment and the Pete Lembo’s squad comes in pretty much fully in tact and hungry to show that they are not a fluke. Meanwhile, Jamey Chadwell’s group still has a bad taste in their mouths from a tough 20-18 loss to Sam Houston to end the season. They also played a really easy schedule and played one less game that most with the Hurricane cancellation earlier in the season. The Flames had some narrow wins and bad losses throughout the season and dWIN (deserved wins) stat says they were more of a 6.5 win team than and 8-win squad. Looking closer at the game card for any edges we can pull out, we do see one on the Buffalo side of things with their pass rush (ranked 35th) going up against a Liberty line that comes in at 108th in our live rotation rankings. If the Bulls can put pressure on QB Ryan Burger and/or Nate Hampton, it could be a deciding factor. Vegas seems to think the Bulls are the favorite laying between 3.5 and 4.5 points and when the dust settles, let’s see what our Model projects for this one.
Model Simulation:
Picks / Plays: We see another even matchup with the Bulls coming out on top by a point. The lean would be to take the points with the Flames, especially if you can get 4.5 of them. The total comes in exactly at what Vegas has it at - so no big play there. If we had to pick that, we’d go OVER 50.5.
That’s our show for today. Again, thanks for following along and supporting this here little endeavor. Please help spread the word and share this work. It fuels it all.