CFB DeptHITS: Wednesday, January 1
New Year. More Football. That's a motto we can live with. We have three College Football Playoff games to earn the right to the semi-finals. We'll spend some time looking closely at those matchups...
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|||||| PORTAL NUGGETS
Before we jump into the previews of the games, there are a few portal ‘nuggets’ we’d like to share with you…
Ohio ::: RB Sieh Bangura [14.0] is headed back to Oxford, Ohio, after a season at Minnesota. He was a prized portal pick up for the Gophers last cycle, but they had plenty of talent in that room and he only saw four carries in Minneapolis. He heads back to the Bobcats where he ran for over 1,900 yards and 22 touchdowns between 2021-2023. He will team back up with Anthony Tyus III, who ran for over 1,000 yards this season.
Florida Atlantic ::: The Owls get a couple of solid 'retains' after both QB Kasen Weisman [12.3] and starting RT Daughtry Richardson [9.9] announce that they will depart the portal and play for new head coach Zach Kittley in Boca Raton. Weisman was a true freshman and earned solid playing time under center. He'll likely compete for the starting job. Richardson is a Florida State transfer and while his rating doesn’t stick out, he is young and highly-touted so there is room to grow.
Washington State ::: S Kapena Gushiken [13.7] was a solid performer and like the best one in the Cougars secondary this season. He has announced he is moving on and entering the portal.
|||||| CFP QUARTERFINALS PREVIEWS & ‘GAME CARDS’
Quick Preview: In the first of three CFP games today, we’ll see the heavily favored Texas Longhorns (12-2) taking on the upstart Arizona State Sun Devils (11-2) at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, Georgia. Two teams in new conferences this season are representing in the CFP. Texas is coming off of a convincing first round win over SMU, while Arizona State has had plenty of time to rest up, scheme and attempt to show the world they belong. So, that’s the big question. Do they belong here? Taking a look at two key metrics we devise to attempt to do just that, we’d like to say that they do. They played the 17th ranked SOS+ (strength of schedule) according to our metric that posts ‘point in time’ rankings of their opponents. Then, dWIN (deserved wins) shows them earning all of those wins and then some (11.7). Are they as battle-tested as their opponent from the SEC? No. But, that’s baked into this spread and the narratives around this game. Also, one may think the pure rotational talent level (which we track) would heavily favor the Longhorns. And, again, they are more talented (7th), but the Sun Devils are not trailing by much as the data has come in this season and Kenny Dillingham’s squad has performed and improved each and every week. Speaking of Dillingham and his coaching staff — they seem to scheme and game plan with the best of them. This seems like a ringing endorsement of the Sun Devils to pull off the upset, but in the words of the great Lee Corso — not so fast. The Longhorns appear just a bit too strong on the lines of scrimmage to call for an upset. They also get back their full contingent of wide receivers with Isaiah Bond appearing probable to play.
Model Simulation:
Plays: This has it coming out very close to where most books have this one on the spread, so we’ll go with lean to Arizona State keeping it within that number (+12.5). The play appears to be on the OVER 53 and we’ll go ahead and suggest a 2-UNIT play on that.
Quick Preview: The Rose Bowl features the Ohio State Buckeyes (11-2) and Oregon Ducks (13-0) squaring off in Pasadena, California. The weather is supposed to be beautiful and we are in for a treat with this one. These two powerhouses met in Eugene earlier this season with the Ducks coming out on top, 32-31. However, the post-game win expectancy numbers favored Ohio State rather convincingly (82%) and everything is pointing to a knock-down; drag-out in Southern California this afternoon. So, where can we find some edges to lean on and try to make something out of this. Our ‘Game Card’ shows that the Buckeyes played s tougher slate (16th in SOS+) compared to the Ducks (31st) and Ryan Day’s squad fully deserved their 11 wins to this point (11.5; +0.5 dWIN). The Ducks come in at (11.6; -1.4) in that “deserved Wins” metric. Again, it all just points to about as even a matchup as you’ll find. Both teams are relatively healthy and not a whole lot of big questionable tags to follow. Looking closer at the matchups, one thing that the Buckeyes do really well is limit explosive plays (2nd in FBS); and that may have something to do with the style of their opponents, but also is a testament to their defensive scheme under Jim Knowles. The Ducks do a fine job of that on the defensive side as well, ranking 15th in our defensive explosive plays allowed ranking. The one area we see an edge is the Ducks’ pass rush against an actually below average Buckeyes pass protection unit. The offensive line comes in a lot lower that one may expect and if this game goes Oregon’s way, that may be a place to point to a major contributing factor and something to watch early.
Model Simulation:
Picks: No surprise that this one comes out as a one-point thriller in the Model sim. That said, when it is all this close, we’ll take any points we can get. Therefore, we’ll lean to Oregon (+2.5). Also, if both teams’ stay true to their form on defense to avoid allowing the big, chunk plays — we could see this one staying UNDER 55.5.
Quick Preview: We’ll finish up one heckuva day of football with another intriguing matchup as the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (12-1) face off with the Georgia Bulldogs (11-2) at the Caesar’s Superdome in New Orleans. The Irish are fresh off a solid and convincing win over Indiana in the first round game, while the Bulldogs earned the right to rest up after capturing the SEC Championship a few weeks back. The big storyline during that time was the availability of the Dawgs’ QB Carson Beck. He was injured in that Championship game and turned out to require surgery on his hand and that thrusts talented, but inexperienced Gunner Stockton to the big stage. This is not an easy matchup to the thrown into, but this staff has had time to prepare a game plan. That game plan likely features a heavy dose of RBs Trevor Etienne and Nate Frazier on the ground to keep pressure off of Stockton and allow him to get the ball out to his talented group of receivers. Notre Dame has been stout on the defensive side of the ball against both the run and pass; so we will see what somewhat maligned OC Mike Bobo comes up with to attack this defense. One edge that we see is in the specialists (kicker, punter and returners) that favors the Bulldogs. In close matchups like these, that is often the difference. In fact, Georgia punter Brett Thorson, who we have ranked as the top punter in the game, may be asked to pin the Irish offense back and keep field position in a tight battle.
Model Simulation:
Picks: When it is all said and done, the Model gives UGA a six-point victory and that puts us in the Georgia (-1) camp with slight optimism. A lot points to a slugfest that stays under this number, but the Model still sees enough offense to get to OVER 45 as well.
That’s our show for today. Enjoy this amazing day of football. If you have some time, please spread the word about our little endeavor here. It really does fuel our passion to provide this content (nearly) every day. Thank you.