Cure Bowl Preview and Pick
Let's take a close look at the Cure Bowl featuring the USF Bulls and Old Dominion Monarchs from Camping World Stadium in Orlando, Florida.
Old Dominion will travel down south to meet its opponent, the South Florida Bulls, for the Cure Bowl. While Orlando certainly isn’t “home” to the Bulls, it’s certainly a lot closer and more familiar to the very different-looking USF squad that was the darlings of the early season, beating Boise State and Florida to kick off the season. While things faded a bit down the stretch, it was still a successful season for Alex Golesh and company. So much so that he and his entire offensive staff have bolted to take on their new challenge in Auburn, Alabama. The Monarchs battled all season and had a roller coaster performance-wise, especially on the defensive side of the ball, where they finished the season allowing a TOTAL of 26 points in their final four contests. Both squads will be without their starting quarterbacks, so let’s take a look at where we may find some advantages in the Cure Bowl, shall we?
INTANGIBLES
ODU has further travel for this one, and the Bulls will be better suited for the climate. The weather itself looks perfect for a mid-December ball game. The Monarchs finished on a heater, winning their final five games, and we mentioned the defensive dominance in those games, though it should be noted they did so against some of the weaker Sun Belt competition. This is from a team that allowed 111 points in a two-game stretch mid-season (at Marshall and at James Madison). The Bulls will be operating without head coach Alex Golesh and the entire offensive staff. They will also take the field without catalyst QB Byrum Brown, who has opted out of the game. At full strength, the Bulls are even better offensively than those two teams listed above — but they are not the same coming in.
The Bulls played a much more demanding schedule, including the aforementioned battles with Boise State and Florida. They also took a licking at the hands of eventual CFP participant Miami (FL) in South Beach. USF’s final SOS+ was 51st in the country, with ODU coming in at 98th. Both squads achieved a nine-win regular season with the Bulls posting a higher “deserved wins” (dWIN) mark at 9.9, compared to 9.2.
ADVANTAGE: USF
PLAYER AVAILABILITY
Note: [ the number in brackets is the player rating, out of 20 ]
OLD DOMINION MONARCHS:
The Monarchs will be without their dynamic starting quarterback Colton Joseph [15.0], who has announced his intentions to enter the portal. He has not been practicing with the team. Therefore, it will be Quinn Henicle [10.9] drawing the start. We don’t have a ton on him, but he was impressive in limited duty a year ago when he was also Joseph’s backup. He doesn’t rate out super high, but he can make plays.
There are a few defensive players that they will want to shed those ‘questionable’ tags and see the field, including S Nickendre Stiger [14.6] and CB Botros Alisandro [13.1]. They have had some time to heal up and get out there, so we aren’t anticipating their absenses.
SOUTH FLORIDA BULLS
We mentioned the stinging loss of star QB Byrum Brown [16.8] and his veteran (by age) backup Gaston Moore [12.2] will draw the start for the Bulls. Though, we could see others.
On the defensive side of the ball, DE Dennard Flowers [13.8] missed the finale in week 14 and we don’t have a definitive update on his status.
There is an outside chance that WR Chas Nimrod [13.1] will make his return after missing games since a week seven injury. He was moved to ‘questionable’ ahead of the week 14 game but did not play.
ADVANTAGE: EVEN
TALENT / MATCHUP EDGES
It’s worth noting that both offenses were two of the most explosive in nature this season with ODU coming in 2nd and USF 3rd in all of FBS football in our explosive plays metric. That said, that was with their dynamic quarterbacks leading the way, so we definitely expect that to slow down in this matchup. Old Dominion was better at limiting those chunk plays on the defensive side of the ball, finishing and impressive 33rd in flipped metric (USF was 71st).
ADVANTAGE: ODU (slight)
In close games, it is often the specialists that make up the difference. According to our live rankings, the Bulls have a solid advantage in this realm (kicking, punting, returns).
ADVANTAGE: USF
We are big on trench play in our model and we are seeing quite a big advantage for the athletic front seven for the Bulls over the ODU offensive line. If this comes to fruition and they are able to frazzle the new starting quarterback, it could spell some problems for the Monarchs. Henicle is athletic and will likely extend some plays, but he’ll need some semblance of time to make things happen consistently.
ADVANTAGE: USF
MODEL SIMULATION
Even with all of the factors at play, the Model still likes the Bulls to pull away in this one. The line has shrunk from opening with the announcements of the departures from the South Florida program, but the simulation doesn’t seem to worry about that.
That said, we do think ODU will come to play tonight. We’ll suggest a lean to USF (-2.5) but a play on the UNDER 53.5 with the new faces running the offenses under/behind center.
Enjoy the Cure Bowl!