Model Plays: Week 12
Let's take a look back at how our Model performed in week 11 and overall in 2025. Then, we'll focus our attention on what the simulations are suggesting we investigate a bit deeper for week 12.
Just when we thought we had this thing figured out, week 11 happened. The common trend for 2025 for the Model has been that it has succeeded over the long haul and a ‘spray the board’ strategy is the best bet. Coming into last week, it had just one week performing under .500 (back in the dreaded week five).
Week 11 joins it as a rough overall week, going just 44-58-0 (43.1%) on all leans. That drops it to 52.7% on the year.
The good news: It actually salvaged with the “UNIT plays” which ended up +2 UNITS. But, since we tend to take some credit for all of the results when they go our way, we must be fair and balanced (how’s that for a change?) in our reporting. That said, our non-human Model does not recommend any plays without a UNIT attached to it.
Here are the broken-down results from week 11:
So, we’ll hit you with the disclaimer. This is always a “work in progress” and you should never place any more than you can handle on anything suggested by this computer simulation.
Buuuuuuutttt….if you enjoy dabbling, you can find this to be an entertaining piece and maybe even take your local (LEGAL!) Sportsbook to the cleaners every once in a while.
Here are the week-by-week results from 2025:
Let’s move into week 12, shall we…
WEEK 12
We have already seen six games come and go through Thursday of week 12. The Model has accumulated a 7-5 record in those games and drawn even on the UNIT plays, of which it had four suggestions (2-2).
We have no plays for Friday evening, and it takes us until the afternoon slate to get to one that the Model thinks is worth jumping on in week 12…
Marshall at Georgia State OVER 62.5 (1 UNIT)
Looking at the leans and plays this week, it’s definitely an ‘over’ theme with 28 leans on the ‘over’ and six actual 1-UNIT plays on the over—zero on the under. So, we’ll see if the offenses find their strides this week and bring that to fruition, but the first one on the docket is the Herd heading to Atlanta to take on the Panthers. This one is relatively simple when looking at the profiles, Georgia State can’t stop anything and the Herd aren’t exactly the ‘85 Bears on that side of the ball. Both can go fast and have veteran/solid quarterback play with Marshall’s Braylon Braxton, who is expected to be okay and play (probable on the report) and either Cameran Brown or T.J. Finley for the Panthers. In games with this profile, our Model tends to favor a back-and-forth affair that exceeds that number.
North Texas (-18.5) at UAB (3 UNITS) and OVER 68.5 (1 UNIT)
The rare 3-UNIT play has the Mean Green throttling UAB and covering this number with ease. The computer isn’t buying that still shocking 31-24 win over Memphis back in eight, Alex Mortensen’s first game as interim head coach. That magic has worn off quickly with back-to-back losses to UConn and Rice. This is a public play for sure but many worry about a led down spot for North Texas. QB Drew Mestemaker has been nothing short of spectacular this season since winning this job and the Blazers have the 134th ranked pass defense in our rankings. We just don’t see them stringing multiple stops together to keep this thing in shouting distance. If they do key on the aerial attack, it’s not like the Mean Green can’t turn to a dynamic true freshman back Caleb Hawkins to keep the chains moving on the ground. This also suggests the over as UAB can potentially get some late scores if garbage time allows for it.
New Mexico (-14.5) vs. Colorado State - 1 UNIT
This one is more about the current state of the Rams, than it is a Lobo love fest. The lost season that has already led to the firing of head coach Jay Norvell. Things have not improved and now players seem to be falling off the map. RB Jalen Dupree announced his intention to transfer out and is no longer with the program. Other injuries are piling up on the offensive line and they just lost to UNLV by 32 points a week ago. The number is a bit lower due to a question around motivation. They have reached bowl eligibility and are not in the running for the Mountain West Championship game. That said, the model doesn’t really care about that and the talent level, current metrics and injury woes is heavily in favor of the home team.
UL-Monroe (+4.5) vs. South Alabama - 1 UNIT
The model must thing there can be some magic happening over the bye week for the Warhawks. They are riding a five game losing streak and have been non-competitive in those game. However, it has been against some solid competition in that stretch. The Jaguars do not quite fall into that cateogory according to our ‘all-in’ rankings at 125th in the land. The Warhawks are banged up, they have been for quite some time so that is nothing new. Both teams are coming off bye weeks. In a case like this, the model really likes the home team that is getting over a field goal.
Memphis (+2.5) at East Carolina (2 UNITS) and OVER 58.5 (1 UNIT)
Hello, Tigers! Once again, the model just can’t seem to ignore their love for Memphis. Tulane put an end to that run last week in a shootout loss to the Green Wave. The spread reflects the expected ‘quit factor’ that can come into play after the Memphis road to the American Conference Championship game — and potential spot in the CFP — has been shut down. Will they find it difficult to get up for this game on the road against an ECU team riding high on a three-game winning streak, scoring over 40 points in their last three games. Granted, Tulsa, Temple and Charlotte aren’t exactly at the level of the team that just now fell out of a chance to compete in the 12-team playoff (regardless of how far fetched that seems). The motivation question is real and should be considered, but the model sure loves it some Tigers (again).
San Diego State (-2.5) vs. Boise State
Another darling of the model this season has been the Aztecs, and like the Memphis example above, it came to a crashing halt last week after they faltered against Hawaii on the island last week, losing 38-6. Their opponent, the Broncos, went through a similar beat down, losing to Fresno State 30-7 their last time out in week ten. They have had a bye week to let that sink in and now head to San Diego to take on the Aztecs, both with hopes for a Conference Championship appearance in their sights. This will be a key matchup for that end. The biggest advantage on the ‘Game Card’ is the Aztecs pass defense (ranked 19th in FBS) going up against a passing offense now led by unproven Max Cutforth for Boise. If the Aztecs can focus on stopping the run with little threat of the aerial attack, things should slow down for the home team. The atmosphere should be there late on Saturday evening and the simulation has the Aztecs winning the night.
Other suggested UNIT plays:
Georgia Tech at Boston College OVER 59.5
Southern Miss (-3.5) vs. Texas State
FIU at Liberty OVER 51.1
Coastal Carolina (+3) at Georgia Southern
Mississippi State at Missouri OVER 51.5
Here is a look at the full Model Tracker (as a screenshot) at the time of publish here on Friday early evening. Things do change/shift slightly and if you are intrested in viewing a live edition of this Tracker, consider joining up as a Depth+ subscriber over at the website. There are certain data perks and insights you can draw with a subscription (and it further supports our work as a bonus).
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