Model Plays: Week 13
Entering second-to-last full week of college football, our model continues to work through each FBS vs. FBS matchup. Let's take a look at how it has performed and see what it recommends for week 13...
And down the stretch they come!
We’re borrowing a famous line from another ‘sport’ but describe the fun that awaits us in the final two weeks of the college football season. Once again, it has flown by and here we are with some actual thoughts on who has a legitimate chance to win the National Championship in 2025. For our purposes, we continue to meticulously tweak each position group on our depth charts for all 136 FBS schools. We project playing time for each player, throw in some outside factors and put it through our model simulation to predict the results of each FBS-level game in week 13.
This article is designed to roll it up and show you why/how the computer is coming up with these prognostications (hint: It’s all in the data) and try to make an argument for each.
So, how has it performed thus far through 625 games (1,250 results including spreads and totals) in 2025, you ask?
I’d say ‘aight’.
If we were cherry picking some of the good (which we are) metrics, we’d go with this:
+25 UNITS on the season
52.6% overall on all plays + leans
11 of 13 weeks at or above .500 (we count week zero)
In the two ‘losing’ weeks with leans (week five and week 11), we still managed to make up for it with a +9 combined UNIT collection
Here is a look at last week’s (12) results:
and and overall, week-by-week look at the results:
Okay, enough bragging…What have you done for me lately, Mr. Model?
A quick reminder that this is always a work-in-progress and we do not recommend you putting your livelihood on the line with any of these picks. We know this great game that we love has such a high rate of variance, putting your eggs in one basket it unreasonable. Heck, if it weren’t that way, we would likely love it a little less. That’s a lot of “L’s” — let’s get to the W’s…
WEEK 13
Note: The simulations provide a ‘lean’ for every spread and total. We only recommend ‘plays’ on those with a 1-3 UNIT tag. Here are some of those plays for this coming week:
3-UNIT PLAY
These are rare. we only have one of them on this slate and didn’t have any over the past four weeks.
Southern Miss -1.5 at South Alabama
Saturday at 3:30 PM ET — Mobile, AL
The model has often taken the other side on the Jaguars this season, including last week against ULM, when they beat the Warhawks 26-14. For most recency-biased models, that’s enough to stay off of them for a while. Not ours. Remember, it doesn’t have feelings. It looks at the underlying talent from each squad and matchups. The Eagles' last outing was not pretty (a 41-14 loss to Texas State), and Vegas is buying into the trends and directions of these two teams. The narrative around Charles Huff’s five-game winning streak came against some weak(er) opposition, and when they faced the Bobcats, it all came crashing down. Our simulation does not agree, and that ‘Game Card’ features quite a few double arrowed advantages for the Golden Eagles. Throw in a couple of new defensive injuries for the Jags (DL Tyler Thomas who is expected to play, but may be banged up) and S Wesley Miller (doubtful), and we have enough to get to this:
2-UNIT PLAY(S) ::::::
USF (-21.5) at UAB
Saturday at 3:00 PM ET — Birmingham, AL
The Model is again holding no grudges for a lackluster week 12 by backing the Bulls once again in week 13. Coming off a tough loss to Navy, 41-38. It’s their third loss of the season and many wonder about their motivation going on the road to sleeping Birmingham, where the undermanned Blazers play out the string on a season that saw their head coach fired (Trent Dilfer) and have lost three in a row and six of their last seven. The one win in that span seems to really stick in everybody’s minds — a stunner over Memphis back in week eight. The fact remains that USF is a really good team that whooped up on Boise, beat Florida and demolished many others in their way. Hey! They lost to Memphis! How could you lay three touchdowns on the road to a team that beat that same Tigers squad? Maybe there is a bit less motivation out there but you can’t make up the difference in talent and I can assure you that their head coach Alex Golesh has plenty of reasons to keep the foot on the gas and put up impressive performances (ahem, see: open jobs). Take a look at the full ‘Game Card’ if you’d like more.
UConn (-7) at Florida Atlantic — AND — OVER 64.5
Saturday at 3:00 PM ET — Boca Raton, FL
The Huskies have been a mainstay here on the “Model Plays” all season. They return for yet another appearance as it just doesn’t think Vegas has caught up. There have been some rough losses (three in OT) but some signature wins — including three-in-a-row, including a victory of ACC member Duke a couple of weeks back. This is the final game of the season as Jim Mora’s team looks to get back to the nine-win plateau and set themselves up for a solid bowl game pairing and a chance to get to double-digits. Meanwhile, the first season for Zach Kittley in Boca has not gone all that great. The offense has shown signs of life, which is to be expected for the former Texas Tech play caller, but the defense has been passive (at best). Their four wins have come against teams ranked 100+ in our All-In Rankings, and includes one over FCS FAMU. The simulation does see the Owls having some success on the offensive side as well and this rising above that high 64.5 total. Two units on the Huskies and the over. Let’s go. Feel free to dive deeper into this matchup by pulling up the full ‘Game Card’ hosted over at the site.
1-UNIT PLAYS ::::::
James Madison (-13.5) vs. Washington State
Saturday at 1:00 PM EST — Harrisonburg, VA
The Cougars are traveling cross-country to a JMU squad with a lot to play for — including a potential spot in the College Football Playoff. In order for that resume to hold up and for the Sun Belt to earn a high enough regard to be considered, they need to make a statement in this game. They are coming off of an absolute blowout over the Mountaineers of App State a week ago and their lone loss on the season was a solid showing on the road early on at Louisville. Looking closer at the ‘Game Card’ we see a JMU defense that has been great at limiting big plays and they are taking on an offense that hardly produces ANY of them on their own. We just don’t see a path for the visitors to put up points. The simulation has them getting four field goals (12 points) and that offense having little trouble moving the ball. The Dukes are healthy with just two showing on their availability reports and they happen to have an edge in just about every metric we are tracking. It’s time for Bob Chesney and his program to make a statement and 13.5 points it not going to contain them in this one.
Western Kentucky (+21.5) at LSU
Saturday at 7:45 PM EST — Baton Rouge, LA
This is a scary one. The Hilltoppers head down to Baton Rouge to take on the Tigers and are getting three touchdowns. This one caught us by a bit of surprise, but we’re including a write-up as we try to figure out what it sees that is likes here. WKU has not played anybody even close to the quality of the Tigers, even if they have had a disappointing season by their lofty SEC standards. Garrett Nussmeier will not play for the Tigers, but they have a fine backup in Michael Van Buren Jr. to take the reins. It’s difficult to find anything on the ‘Game Card’ that gives us a whole lot of confidence, but the simulation has this one a lot closer than that spread. This is the Hilltoppers’ Super Bowl and LSU is playing out the string, with Oklahoma on deck next week. They beat Arkansas last week to lock up a bowl game (at least) so there may be a motivation problem here.
Here are some other 1-UNIT plays from the simulations:
Rutgers at Ohio State — OVER 55.5
Toledo (-28.5) vs. Ball State
Appalachian State (+5.5) vs. Marshall
Texas (-8.5) vs. Arkansas
Jacksonville State at FIU — OVER 55.5
Boise State (-17.5) vs. Colorado State + OVER 45.5
Washington (-10.5) at UCLA
San Diego State (-12.5) vs. San Jose State
Here is a screenshot of the full dossier for week 12 at time of publish. Note: These are all subject to change/shift as we get word on players being ruled in/out for games. It’s always moving. Consider signing up for CFBDepth+ to get access to the live tracker and much more over at the site (just $9.99/month). Have a GREAT (and lucky) week 13!
