Model Plays: Week 14
Let's take a look at what our model has in store for us in week 14 after a quick look back at it's performance in week 13 and overall this season.
We have reached the final week of the regular season in college football. We have a FULL slate of action spread throughout the week, including some games that have already been played. We will take a look at our results from week 13 and get you a two-parter this week with a mini-slate of action all day on Black Friday. We will come back Saturday morning to get you a few more plays and write-ups to help you make some decisions this week.
As always, we need to mention that this Model is in perpetual ‘work-in-progress’ mode. Anybody who tells you they have it all figured out is lying to you. We won’t ever do that. Even when it has a good run, there are plenty of nuances and factors in our game that are ever-evolving, and we need to adjust/adapt. This is for entertainment purposes, but we are also here to win.
That’s oursegue into our look at the week 13 results from the Model:
Another .500 week with a small UNIT gain of +4. This thing continues to either hold serve overall and/or produce some positive gains on the more confident picks. The most successful segment from week 13 was the 14-7-0 lean on 21 favorites in the Group of Five (G5). Overall, on spread plays in the 29 G5 vs. G5 games, this thing went 20-9. It gave back two UNITS on a couple of misses in the Power Four (P4) vs. G5 games, totaling five this week.
Here is the week-by-week look at the results from the (CFBDm) Model in 2025:
We’ll take it.
Now, like any of these teams we are covering, we need to finish strong and enter the post-season with momentum…so, let’s run that machine on the 67-game FBS level slate for our final regular season week.
WEEK 14
Early Games
We have had three games played, beginning with a couple of MACtion games on Tuesday and a lone American game on Turkey Day. Those net a 3-3 record with +1 UNIT as we embark on our two slates on Friday and Saturday.
Friday
There is a 13-game mini-slate for Friday and the model has a few plays to highlight…
Air Force (-2.5) at Colorado State (2 UNITS) + OVER 46.5 (1 UNIT)
The Rams are a bit of a mess these days as they navigate through a lost season and their opponent, Air Force, has not been much better recently. The Colorado State injury impact is at a critical level, even though it has been that way for a few weeks now. They also have a significant ‘quit’ factor to consider here. The Falcons have been inconsistent at best and appear to be struggling on offense without QB Liam Szarka. This line has come down too far for the Model to be okay with, and it’s jumping on the Falcons to right the ship in their final 2025 game. These two defenses are just bad enough for two bad offenses to get this over a low number as well.
Ole Miss (-7.5) at Mississippi State + OVER 62.5 (1 UNIT EACH)
Distraction? Nah. The Model doesn’t care about any distractions surrounding a certain head coach. It just sees an opportunity to jump on the Rebels, who are more talented and have a ton to play for in this version of the Egg Bowl. The motivation for the Bulldogs is there as well. Even if they weren’t in the hunt for a bowl game with a win, they always get up for their rivals in this annual rivalry game. Both offenses are set up for success in this one as well and it suggests a play on the over in a back-and-forth shootout today, kicking off at 11:00 in Starkville. The ‘Game Card’ also indicates a big advantage in the trenches as they Rebels can limit the running game and force Blake Shapen to throw the football and potentially become one-dimensional.
Northern Illinois (-5.5) vs. Kent State - 1 UNIT
The Huskies have had a down year, and Kent State has overachieved. As they come into the final week of the season, neither will make a bowl game, so it’s just good old-fashioned MAC showdown for pride. The Huskies are more talented than the Flashes, according to our metrics — especially on defense as compared to the Kent State offense. That said, they did just give up 35 to Western Michigan a week ago at home, and things are getting a bit hairy on that side of the ball. The ‘Game Card’ suggests an advantage on the defensive side of the ball as well, with a rather large front seven edge over the Kent State offensive line.
Other 1-UNIT plays:
Georgia at Georgia Tech OVER 59.5
San Diego State (-1.5) at New Mexico
Temple at North Texas OVER 65.5
Here is a look at the full Friday card as it stands:
We’ll be back tomorrow (Saturday) morning with our plays and write-ups for that slate. Enjoy week 14 Friday.
SATURDAY ADDITION
Okay, so Friday as…okay. We are sensing a trend here, with many .500 reports. Now, in week 14, the Model is 16-16-0 and up 2 UNITS. Let’s see if we can finish strong here on Saturday.
2-UNIT PLAYS ::::::
We have a few 2-UNIT plays on this final Saturday of the regular season. We’ll detail those out a bit more here and then list out the 1-UNITS to conclude.
East Carolina at Florida Atlantic OVER 65.5
The Pirates and Owls are destined for a back-and-forth shootout as the line certainly is prepared for that at a very high number. According to this simulation, it’s simply not high enough. Both offenses are clicking, even though the Pirates couldn’t keep pace with UTSA in the Alamodome last week, this is a bit of a different story as we show the FAU defense in the bottom ten in all of FBS football. They were in a similar shootout a week ago against UConn, eventually falling by three, 48-45.
Texas State (-8.5) vs. South Alabama — and — OVER 62.5
This is another example of the Model seeing a very high number, but simply not high enough. It’s going to go over that self-imposed cap and bring us a win. Right? It also believes GJ Kinne’s squad will pull away in the end and cover that 8.5 points they are laying. The Bobcats have seemingly found their groove the last couple of weeks, dominating Southern Miss and then handily beating ULM last week. South Alabama is also on a two-game win streak (against those same teams), but that Texas State offense is the difference here. A couple of new defensive injuries are highlighted on the ‘Game Card’ that may help keep things going back-and-forth.
Army (+7.5) at UTSA (1 UNIT) — and — OVER 51.5 (2 UNITS)
Betting against UTSA at the Alamodome has proven to be a losing strategy in recent years. The Roadrunners are just a different team there and continue to play that out in 2025. However, the model sees an Army team (that it always seems to favor) getting a touchdown and a hook, and can’t ignore it. Yes, the Army will slow things down, but they have been susceptible on defense all season, outside of some solid performances. UTSA’s offense just put up a big number against ECU here last week and is straight humming. The Knights are going to need to score to keep up, and if they are able, this will go comfortably over that low(er) number.
James Madison (-21.5) at Coastal Carolina
Fading Coastal has been a theme of the Model all season. This is a huge number to lay on the road, and JMU has already clinched its side of the Sun Belt. They may get up and ride it out, but the Model doesn’t play that game. They see Mr. Chesney keeping his boys playing hard for the full 60 and putting a licking on the Chants on their own teal turf.
Here is the remainder of the 1-UNIT plays:
Toledo (-11.5) at Central Michigan
FIU (-11.5) at Sam Houston — and — OVER 51.5
Syracuse vs. Boston College OVER 54.5
Missouri (-3.5) at Arkansas
Penn State at Rutgers OVER 55.5
Virginia (-8.5) vs. Virginia Tech
Tulane (-30.5) vs. Charlotte
Fresno State (-3.5) at San Jose State
Enjoy the final slate of action for this college football regular season and we’ll be back to wrap it all up on Monday.
Here is a point-in-time screenshot of the full slate from our Tracker:
Thank you.