Model Plays: Week Eight

Let's take a look back at another winning (barely) week for the (CFBD)m Model and look at what plays we are getting this week as we enter the second half of the college football season.

Let’s call week seven a ‘wash’ considering the Model performed at an even mark on UNITS and even though it hit 54.5% overall (61-50-1), there is a lot that goes into that number, including a little luck. At least it didn’t lose. And, not to harp on the fact that the Army gave up a touchdown with 08 left, leading 24-0 for a backdoor four UNIT swing…but, yeah, again, those all even out. Right?

That’s why we’ll open with this disclaimer. This model really is still a work-in-progress. One trend we are noticing is that it is slow to come off of teams that are showing on the field that they might not quite be up to snuff. This is not like other models. It focuses less on past results and more on the current talent level on the field — driven by our player ratings, which are based on many data sources, and by our squad's playing time projections. Of course, other factors go into this, but that is the gist. The Model is like the ‘Tin Man’ when it comes to this thing. Had we been personally burned as many times as the Toledo Rockets have burned us this season, we’d swear them off. However, the Model still sees a significant advantage and suggests them (again) nonetheless.

Here are the broken down results from the week that was:

And, a look at the seasonal results as we reach the halfway point:

A nice little rebound after a rough stretch of UNIT plays, losing nearly 20 of them in weeks 3-4. Do you think it will keep going in week eight? Let’s see what we have…

There are two ways to play this. You can lean into the suggested UNIT plays, which the Model identifies as the most lopsided relative to the spread at the time of publication. Or, you could ‘spray the board’ and play each individually, which is up +54 thus far on the season. We will provide some write-ups on what the Model (if it could talk) would describe each of the suggested plays, and then for our paid subs, we’ll get you the full slate of plays this week.

North Carolina at California OVER 47.5

1 UNIT // Friday, 10:30 PM ET

Maybe the struggling Tar Heels just needed some time to regroup and veteran head coach Bill Belichick and his staff is ready to break out in Berkeley? The talent is there and both teams have a lot of firepower to lean on. This one would certainly feel a lot better if Gio Lopez is able to play, as he looks to return from a leg injury. Yes, the Cal defense has been solid, especially against the pass, but think back to that first scripted drive of the season for the Tar Heels and hopefully they can contribute to get this over the total. Cal should easily hold up their end with QB Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele shredding this secondary that is missing some key pieces, including Thaddeus Dixon. Cal also has some injuries on the defensive side of the ball, including star DB Isaiah Crosby and two impact LBs Ryan McCullough and Serigne Tounkara.

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Army at Tulane OVER 45.5

1 UNIT // Saturday, 12:00 PM ET

This isn’t a very lofty total and that could be attributed to the recent lower-scoring outputs that Army has allowed in the past couple of weeks. Tulane has an established defense, but you can usually throw that out the window when Army comes knocking. It’s just such a different style. Army’s recent success on the defensive side has come against UAB and Charlotte, two of the worst offensive teams in the American Conference. Yes, they will run the clock on offense, but should also hit on a few explosive plays — of which they have not done a great job of this season. That said, if there is one weakness in this Tulane defense, it is allowing those chunk plays, ranking 113th in defensive explosive rating per our rankings.

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Toledo (-23.5) vs. Kent State

3 UNITS // 2:00 PM ET

Here we go again. We mentioned in the opening that this Toledo team just has too much talent to be 3-3 and a middling MAC program. Kent State has surprised with their two wins and both programs are going in opposite directions after the Rockets blew a big lead against Bowling Green a week ago, while Kent State whipped up on UMass, 42-6. Without those results, this would easily be a four-touchdown spread. We’d also draw up the last time this season that the Rockets had a disappointing result (14-13 loss to Western Michigan), they took it out on Akron, winning 45-3. That’s the result we’d need to see to cover this one.

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Buffalo (-16.5) at UMass

1 UNIT // 2:30 PM ET