Model Plays: Week Five

We'll take a look at that Model and see how it performed in week four; then look ahead at what we have for week five in our weekly "Model Plays" article.

Maybe we should take the ‘spray the board’ philosophy. I put off grading the Model performance most of the week for two primary reasons. First, it was crazy busy with so much news, injuries, and updates that we needed to make to each of our squads. Secondly, it did not seem likely to yield a good result. And, as much as I stress that this Model is a work-in-progress and I don’t want anyone putting too much into these suggestions, I still feel an obligation to get some of these right.

It turns out to be another winning week overall. The Model hit 53-46-1 (53.0%) overall. The problem: the UNITS. We gave 11 of them back this week. So, it’s winning over the long haul, but struggling in the ones where it is most confident. Interesting.

So, we made some changes this week. We were seeing some wild discrepancies away from the Vegas odds, and while we don’t want to mirror what is set, we need to recognize that the market is strong. It knows what it is doing. So, we did a little calculation to help bring it back to the mean a bit, and we won’t see so many 3-5 UNIT plays going forward.

Here is the full recap/breakdown from week four:

And here is our overall results from 2025:

As we move forward, we’ll continue to refine our numbers and explore where we can achieve success with this model. But, again, this is for entertainment purposes only! You’ll need to pay more than the equivalent of two gallons of gas per month to get guaranteed results, that’s for sure.

New Approach

So, we are going to take a different approach to this week five “Model Plays” article. We’ll call it a ‘spray the board’ approach. For each game, we’ll give a nugget (or more) along with what the simulation has. We’ll pull up the ‘Game Card’ and run through the entire slate of action for week five. We are also going to a staggered release:

• Friday / Saturday Early (through 1:30 PM ET start times): By Noon on Friday (today)

• Saturday Mid-Day (3:30 - 4:15 PM ET start times): Added on Saturday Morning (tomorrow)

• Saturday Evening (the rest of them): Added by 12:00 PM ET Saturday

Thursday

• Army (+4.5) 1 UNIT at ECU / OVER 52.5 1 UNIT

Well, we already had one dud for the week. But we aren’t hiding anything, so let’s take a look at what went wrong and what we learned from it. ECU has a solid defense. Head coach Blake Harrell is a defensive-minded coach, and he did a nice job slowing down the Black Knights. They were led by a 21-point first-quarter outburst, which made this OVER look like a lock. However, the Army defense made some adjustments, just as they had the week prior against North Texas, and it finished with a score of 28-6 in favor of the Pirates. That’s a 0-2 (-2 UNIT) start.

Friday

• Florida State at Virginia - 7:00 PM ET ::: This is a real spot for a statement from UVA. The offense is humming with Chandler Fields running the show, scoring in bunches this year, albeit against some weaker defenses. FSU has yet to be tested since that week one throttling of Alabama, and they are coming in ready to roll. One injury to watch out for is UVA’s starting center Brady Wilson, who is listed as questionable for this one. That may make a difference. The Model agrees with Vegas on this one, finishing up as win for FSU, 35-28.

  • Model Lean: FSU -6.5 and OVER 59.5 (no units)

  • Game Card & Simulation:

    

• TCU at Arizona State - 9:00 PM ET ::: The Horned Frogs got out of that SMU game with a win, but also quite banged up. Both are coming off impressive Big XII victories as ASU beat Baylor on the road in week four. Given the health of the Frogs, the short week, and the travel, our heads would lean toward the Sun Devils in this one. Throw in a decided Specialists advantage (who would have guessed that from a year ago?), and that’s enough for a play.

  • Model Leans: Arizona State -3 and OVER 54.5 (no units)

  • Game Card & Simulation:

    

• Oregon State at Houston - 10:30 PM ET ::: The winless hosting the undefeated. What could go wrong? It’s been a rough start for the Beavers in ‘25, but they have also played the fourth-toughest slate thus far with games against Cal, Fresno State, at Texas Tech, and at Oregon. It’s early enough that Corvalis should remain a solid home-field advantage. Houston is coming off a bye to rest up, but may have a bit of rust from their last win over what appears to be a disarrayed Colorado team. The Model says Houston, but with little confidence, I think this is a spot the Beavers can surprise and cover this one.

  • Model Lean: Houston -13.5 / UNDER 47.5

  • Game Card & Simulation:

    

Saturday Early

• Georgia Tech at Wake Forest - 12:00 PM ET ::: The Yellow Jackets head to Winston-Salem to take on Wake Forest, which is coming off a bye. Georgia Tech is sitting at 4-0 with a signature win (or is it?) over Clemson in week three and handling business last week against Temple. The Deacs will be without DB Rushaun Tongue, which may impact certain aspects of this game. Heavy rains are expected in the area on Saturday and could cause delays and or some sloppy conditions. Jake Dickert’s team will have to surprise them to keep this one within reach, but the Model seems to think they can do it.

  • Model Lean: Wake Forest (+13.5) / UNDER 51.5

  • Game Card & Simulation:

  

• USC at Illinois - 12:00 PM ET ::: Two programs feeling very different after week four, which saw the Illini completely embarrassed against Indiana and the Trojans handling Michigan State at home. It’s an early start for USC, whose body clocks will be at 10:00 AM at kickoff in Champaign. The Trojans lead the nation in explosive plays, and Illinois gave up quite a few of those to the Hoosiers a week ago. With injuries remaining in the secondary, Jayden Maiava should be able to exploit that (once he wakes up). The Model agrees with a line close to a touchdown, when it’s all said and done, and Illinois will be playing with some urgency.

  • Model Lean: USC -6.5 / UNDER 60.5

  • Game Card & Simulation:

  

• Notre Dame at Arkansas - 12:00 PM ET ::: The Irish travel to Fayetteville to take on the Hogs. Sam Pittman’s squad is coming off of a heart-wrenching one-point loss to the Memphis Tigers in week four, while Notre Dame ran all over (literally) Purdue en route to their first win of 2025. This line has dropped significantly as the week has progressed, opening at -12.5 for Notre Dame and subsequently falling to -4.5 at the time of writing. There are plenty of offensive stars in this one, and the defensive play of Notre Dame has been a talking point (not a good one). The Model actually sees the Razorbacks winning this game. Looking closer at the ‘Game Card,’ it appears that the Arkansas offensive line is expected to hold against the Irish's lackluster pass rush and keep things moving.

  • Play: Arkansas +4.5 (1 UNIT) / UNDER 63.5

  • Game Card & Simulation:

  

• Rutgers at Minnesota - 12:00 PM ET ::: It’s a bit of a homecoming for Athan Kaliakmanis as he returns to Minneapolis, where he started his career. Now, he’s in charge of a high-flying Rutgers offense that couldn’t quite keep up with Iowa a week ago, losing their first game of 2025 by ten to the Hawkeyes. The Gophers have had enough time to stew over their loss to Cal in week three and likely used the bye week to get some things right. This will be a test to see which wins — a good defense or a good offense. As usual, the Gophers are showing an ability to limit big plays, but haven’t seen an offense of this caliber just yet. Both teams are dealing with some injuries, but the most notable is on the Gophers’ side as RB Darius Taylor remains questionable to be able to go in this one. As does his backup A.J. Turner. Even if Taylor is able to start the game, he has not been able to stay on the field very long. That’s something to keep an eye on as kickoff approaches. There is a very slight lean to the Gophers in this one but the Model does see Kaliakmanis managing enough to help get this one over the current total of 51.5.

  • Lean/Play: Minnesota -5.5 / OVER 51.5 (1 UNIT)

  • Game Card & Simulation:

    

• Duke at Syracuse - 12:00 PM ET ::: The injury to quarterback Steve Angeli is unfortunate for the Orange. They are riding high after an upset of Clemson and moving to 3-1 on the season. They host Duke in the Dome, who is coming off their best performance of 2025 after a couple of early disappointments. Word on the street is that Rickie Collins is no slouch and should step right in and make some plays for this offense, which has a scheme set up for success seemingly regardless of personnel. The Model likes the Orange to keep this one close and will lean to taking those 5.5 points.

  • Lean(s): Syracuse +5.5 / OVER 60.5

  • Game Card & Simulation:

    

• Louisville at Pittsburgh - 12:00 PM ET ::: What jumps off the page on this ‘Game Card’ is the injury impacts on both teams. With star running backs questionable all over the place. That includes Louisville’s Isaac Brown. Backup Keyjuan Brown is listed as ‘out’ and Duke Watson is also dealing with some health concerns. Going up against a Pitt defensive front seven ranked 4th in our talent rankings is going to be no easy task. QB Miller Moss has not shown the ability to win games himself at this point. Meanwhile, RB Desmond Reid is also nursing an injury suffered in the ‘Backyard Brawl’ and even with the bye week to get healthy, he remains uncertain. The model sees this one becoming a slog-fest and staying low scoring with the Cardinals sneaking it out in the end.

  • Lean/Play: Pittsburgh (+4.5) / UNDER 57.5 (2 UNITS)

  • Game Card & Simulation:

    

• Cincinnati at Kansas - 12:00 PM ET ::: Both RB Daniel Hishaw and S Mason Ellis have been updated to ‘doubtful’ to play against the Bearcats in week five. These are impactful injuries to note for the Jayhawks. On the other side, Bearcats DL Dontay Corleone is a name to watch as well, holding a ‘questionable’ tag. He’s been unable to stay on the field recently, but is a difference-maker. Cincy is coming off a bye, and Kansas is coming off a ‘high’ with a convincing win over West Virginia in Lawrence. They’ll stay at their newly renovated home and try out that potent offense against a solid defense. We can’t agree that this is the best team they’ve played this season, as head coach Lance Leipold alluded to, but they will need to play better in the secondary than they did against Mizzou, that’s for sure.

  • Lean(s): Cincinnati +4.5 / UNDER 57.5

  • Game Card & Simulation:

    

• UCF at Kansas State - 12:00 PM ET ::: Had we looked ahead to this one in the pre-season and known that one of these teams was 3-0 and the other 1-3, we likely would have had them reversed. But here we are. A good K-State coaching staff has had a bye week to prepare for the undefeated Knights, something that head coach Scott Frost is accustomed to in his time in Orlando. It can’t be ignored that the Wildcats were very close to sitting at 0-4 if not for a comeback against FCS North Dakota in week one, following a battle with Iowa State in Dublin. The Army loss at home is also not aging well, as the Black Knights have not been impressive outside of that performance thus far in ‘25. The Model tends to agree with Vegas on this one, giving a slight edge to K-State, with a predicted score of 25-21.

  • Lean(s): UCF +5.5 / UNDER 49.5

  • Game Card & Simulation:

    

• South Alabama at North Texas - 12:00 PM ET ::: The Mean Green have been the talk of the Group of Five thus far in 2025, compiling a 4-0 start, including an OT win over Army a week ago. The Jaguars, on the other hand, are on a three-game slide, including a somewhat inexplicable loss at home to Coastal Carolina last week. That said, the post-game win expectancy numbers suggest the Jaguars deserve better than their one win, putting them at a dWIN of 2.2 — the most significant difference in the metric in all of FBS. North Texas has been leaning on fast/hot starts and also has a +8 turnover margin early in the season. The biggest injury note is to Mean Green DB Da’Veawn Armstead, who is questionable to play in this one and would open things up a bit for a struggling Paul Petrino-led South Alabama offense. Despite some of those warning signs — the Model likes the Mean Green to run away with this one.

  • Play/Lean: North Texas (-12.5) 1 UNIT / OVER 62.5

  • Game Card & Simulation:

    

• Bowling Green at Ohio - 12:00 PM ET ::: Eddie George has done a nice job getting this Falcons team to show respectably in their first four games of his tenure, managing a 2-2 record. The wins are against FCS Lafayette and a struggling Liberty team. Meanwhile, Ohio has played a tough slate of games early on, with matchups against Rutgers, West Virginia, and Ohio State. They are also sitting at 2-2 on the season. The ‘Game Card’ gives Ohio a few advantages, leading to a 5-point win in Athens — but that doesn’t cover the 7.5.

  • Lean: Bowling Green +7.5 / UNDER 50.5

  • Game Card & Simulation:

    

• Utah State at Vanderbilt - 12:45 PM ET ::: Oh, aren’t you falling in love with those ‘Dores in 2025? They have handled every test thus far, including a dominant road win over South Carolina in Columbia and, most recently, exacting revenge in a big way against Georgia State, 70-21 in week four. This is the exact scenario for a let-down spot. Sure, but this coaching staff is still keenly aware of that happening a year ago when the Panthers shocked Vanderbilt. Utah State is a great story so far, as Bronco Mendenhall has the Aggies playing well, sitting at 3-1 on the season. They really haven’t faced too much stiff competition. As expected, the matchups heavily favor the Commodores, but this is a hefty spread at 22.5 points at the time of writing. Vanderbilt is remarkably healthy with just one player believed to be questionable going into this one. The Model is a lean to Utah State, but it’s certainly not a comfortable play. However, it does like the UNDER for two teams that combined for 118 points between them a week ago. So…yeah.

  • Lean/Play: Utah State +22.5 / UNDER 58.5 (1 UNIT)

  • Game Card & Simluation:

    

• Eastern Michigan at Central Michigan - 1:00 PM ET ::: Two of the directional Michigan schools will do battle in Mount Pleasant this week. The Eagles are coming off a nice win over Louisiana a week ago — their first of 2025. Central Michigan was able to lick its wounds from the two previous weeks’ beatdowns at the hands of Pittsburgh and Michigan, losing by a combined 108 (!) points by beating FCS Wagner 49-10. This looks like a very evenly matched game at-a-glance on the ‘Game Card’ and when that’s the case, you usually take the points. So, with a wide range of outcomes at hand with these two, we’d suggest staying away.

  • Lean(s): Eastern Michigan +5.5 / OVER 54.5

  • Game Card & Simluation:

    

• Georgia Southern at James Madison - 1:30 PM ET ::: Rain is expected in Harrisonburg on Saturday, early afternoon. That could throw a little wrench into this one. Looking at the Injury & Status column on the ‘Game Card’ (linked below!), there are quite a few entries on both sides of the ledger. The Dukes have been impressive thus far in 2025, including a spirited effort in Louisville back in week two. The play hard on defense and seem to have a rather significant advantage on both sides of the ball. JMU has a host of backs, though banged up, and they are deep; they will not be afraid to stick to that run game against a really suspect Georgia Southern run defense. It should be mentioned that this was the reasoning behind a 3-unit play back in week three when Jacksonville State was the play. The Eagles did give up plenty of yards, but the offense came through in that one. They won’t be able to do that in this one against the Dukes' defense, and the Model sees them (being JMU) running away with this one.

  • Lean(s): JMU -17.5 / OVER 56.5 (1 UNIT)

  • Game Card & Simulation:

    

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Saturday Mid-Day