Model Plays: Week Four
Let's take a look at what our Model suggests are the 'plays of the week' for a busy Saturday in week four across college football.
It’s been an average couple of weeks for the (CFBDm) Model. And, by average, we literally mean exactly at the .500 mark. That’s good in baseball, but nothing to write home about when it comes to college football prognostications. Here is a look at the week-by-week performance thus far in 2025:
Week 0: 7-3-0 (70.0%) | +1 UNIT | 5 games
Week 1: 52-34-0 (60.5%) | +14 UNITS | 43 games
Week 2: 50-50-0 (50.0%) | +8 UNITS | 50 games
Week 3: 47-47-0 (50.0%) | -8 UNITS | 47 games
Total: 156-134-0 (53.8%) | +15 UNITS | 145 games
So, we gave back some UNITS last week despite the even record. That killer week one seems like so long ago and we’ll try to get back on track in week four. No major changes to the algorithm, though it was considered when we took at look at the heavy lean on favorites a week ago. Here is the breakdown of the results from week three:
We had 29 favorites compared to just 18 underdogs on the sides overall. That went 19-28-0, resulting in a loss of 13 units. I began to think that we were giving too much weight to one metric, which led to such a result. We cooled the jets a bit, realizing it’s a one-week sample, and looking ahead at what our simulations produced this week, it’s back to a better balance between favorites (24) and dogs (26) in week four. We’ll keep an eye on it, regardless.
THURSDAY / FRIDAY RESULTS ::::::
It must be noted that the Model is off to a rip-roaring 6-0 start, +5 UNITS. It really liked the Tulsa/OK State UNDER (3 UNITS) and the Rutgers/Iowa OVER (2 UNITS), to go with a single UNIT play on the Hurricane. Hopefully, you threw a Cover-3-style ‘moneyline sprinkle’ on that one as well. As we await the fate of the Mullet in Stillwater, we have a lot of football to get to on Saturday, so let’s see if we can keep this momentum going
3 UNIT PLAYS ::::::
Louisiana (-2.5) at Eastern Michigan
The Model likes the Rajin’ Cajuns to come back from that throttling they took at Mizzou in week three and go into Ypsilanti and hand the Eagles their fourth straight loss to open the 2025 campaign. This all seems to hinge on metrics showing Eastern as one of the worst defensive units in all of college football (ranked: 135th). The Cajuns lost their starting quarterback, Walker Howard, to injury and are now rolling with backup Daniel Beale. This is just the matchup they need for Beale to gain some confidence, it appears. The Cajuns are likely to lean on their 1-2 punch of Bill Davis and Zylan Perry in the run game to get the job done here, and the matchups appear to be in their favor. On top of the three losses the Eagles have suffered (including one to an FCS-level Long Island), they are also a bit banged up. It all adds up to a comfortable road win for the boys in red.
Toledo (-14) at Western Michigan
These are two programs going in opposite directions. This is the perfect time for a regression to the mean, which is why the line doesn’t appear high enough. The Rockets have been tested with an eight-point loss at Kentucky and passed a test, handling Western Kentucky, 45-21. Throw out the 60-0 win over Morgan State, and you still have a solid early-season resume. The data behind it tells a similar story. Similarly, the Broncos have played an impressive slate thus far, with respectable losses to Michigan State and Illinois on the road. They were right in the game against North Texas sandwiched between those Big Ten games. Now, as both teams open up MAC play in 2025, the talent edge on both sides of the ball appears to favor the Rockets. Sure, covering two whole touchdowns on the road is no small order, but a veteran coaching staff will have this team ready and will take full advantage. It will certainly help if a pair of talented defensive linemen — Avery Dunn and Martez Poynter — are able to shed their ‘questionable’ tags and get on the field to help shut down whichever quarterback Lance Taylor turns to in this one. Simulation suggests: all Rockets.
Marshall / Middle Tennessee State UNDER 47.5
We are going to back to this well again as two struggling teams seem to have a grip on the defensive side of the ball. The Blue Raiders went through a rock fight a week ago against Nevada and are keeping the ball on the ground at a healthy 2/3 clip this season so far. Neither of these personnel groups offers much in the way of a potential ‘script flip’ to suddenly start airing it out. On defense, there isn’t much to point out to support this theory, though the one area that stands out on the ‘Game Card’ is the talent level for MTSU to get in the backfield. They have managed just 1.5 sacks per game thus far, but the potential is there to wreck some drives. Overall, the game script calls for a slow ‘em down, knock-down, drag-out, that results in this:
Coastal Carolina (+15.5) at South Alabama
When scanning through these games earlier in the week, this one certainly didn't stand out to me. Coastal appears to be a shell of its former competent self, having played two non-competitive games against both Virginia (48-7) and East Carolina (38-0) thus far. Even the win over FCS Charleston Southern was a sleepy 13-0 victory. Tim Beck’s squad just doesn’t seem to have that mojo this year and is certainly in danger of having an abysmal season. Even our deserved wins (dWIN) metric suggests that Coastal only deserves some of that one win. At the same time, South Alabama played spiritedly against Auburn last week and posted just a two-point loss to Tulane in their home opener. So, what is going on here? One of the key points of this Model, which prioritizes talent level over past results, is to avoid getting caught up in that. Sometimes, this comes back to haunt us, as it continually focuses on what we see on paper (player-level data), but it never translates to the field. That’s usually a coaching issue — and we’ll make adjustments to factor that in. However, weird things happen and 15.5 points is a lot in a Sun Belt Conference opener, so we’ll let it ride and see if the Chants can find something to keep this one a ball game in Mobile this evening.
2-UNIT PLAYS ::::::
Texas Tech at Utah OVER 57.5
A popular play for sure as two offenses appear ready and willing to break out. A couple of ‘real-world’ caveats to consider and why this is not in the 60’s. 1.) It’s a very early start in Salt Lake and is ripe for a ‘sleepy start’ on offense. 2.) Neither team has played ANYBODY to this point and the defenses both still have a lot of talent. This one wreaks of a first-half UNDER (28) and then a full-game OVER as they get their bearings and make some adjustments in the second half.
Model Simulation »»» Texas Tech 33, Utah 33 (TT with the slight edge at 33.3 to 32.8) | View Game Card >
Army (+1.5) vs. North Texas
Army has a bad rap for that clunker to start the season against Tarleton State, and rightfully so. That is not a game a Jeff Monken team usually let’s get away. This Knights team did have a lot of turnover on offense and needed some time to get right. They handled business on the road at a down, but still respectable K-State team, in week two and followed that with a bye week to work on things. North Texas is the talk of the American, sitting at 3-0 and coming off a demolition of Washington State a week ago. They may be feeling themselves a bit after that performance, and, as usual, Vegas isn’t giving in too much. Another factor is that defending Joe Moore Award-winning offensive line took some hits, but new lines take some time to gel and they have the bodies to bring that together. The Model is going away from the storylines and focusing in on the talent-level, giving the Black Knights the edge at home by a touchdown.
Model Simulation »»» Army 31, North Texas 24 | View Game Card >
UConn (-21.5) vs. Ball State
This is the third appearance in a row for the Huskies. The Model can not give up on them, despite back-to-back overtime losses (and non-covers). But, here’s the thing (again) about the Model. It doesn’t care. There is no soul in that machine that’s spitting out these simulation results and it simply can’t get over the fact that the talent-level difference between these two teams is closer to 4-5 touchdowns, rather than the three that Vegas is calling for. There really is no reason to go any further than that — it’s a ‘get right’ spot for Jim Mora’s boys and we need that to happen before the ‘quit factor’ comes into play.
Model Simulation »»» UConn 43, Ball State 13 | View Game Card >
Southern Miss / Louisiana Tech UNDER 50.5
Another trend is emerging in the Model and it’s really liking this Louisiana Tech defense, and for good reason. They are showing well and the underlying talent level is backing it up. Both teams run it at a slow(er) pace and the Bulldogs are keeping the ball on the ground at a particularly high clip, leading to a lot of clock ticking. Both teams know how they want to win and the simulation has the game script of each playing ‘not to lose’ and setting the offenses up with long-fields and winning both time of possession, but field position battles. The Eagles have the most dynamic player on the field with QB Braylon Braxton providing a bit of a threat every time he has the ball and that gives a little pause, but he’ll need to do it against that stout LA Tech front.
Model Simulation »»» Southern Miss 22, Louisiana Tech 20 | View Game Card >
Texas (-39.5) vs. Sam Houston
There are certain games that the spread become irrelevant. No matter how high it gets and how unreasonable it seems, it’s simply not enough. This feels like one of those spots. Steve Sarkisian is at a point that he is going to be demanding the most out of the talent-level and they will play the full 60 minutes in this one. No mercy. Nothing else to say here.
Model Simulation »»» Texas 51, Sam Houston 3 | View Game Card >
Here are some of the other quick hitting 2-UNIT plays for week four:
Louisiana / Eastern Michigan OVER 50.5
FIU (-4.5) vs. Delaware
Arkansas State (-4.5) at Kennesaw State
Michigan State / USC UNDER 55.5
Annnddd….the full card:
Thank you for your support of our endeavor here. We put a lot of time into this — and we love it. Your following and paid subscription means the world to us and keeps us moving. Just making sure you know that we appreciate it. Good luck in week four — and ENJOY it.
-Mark & the CFBDepth Squad