Model Plays: Week Nine (Updated)

Let's take a look at the (CFBDm) Model and how it performed in week eight. Then, we'll run these games through the simulation machine to see which sides it favors for a loaded week nine.

The Model keeps on trucking along and week eight was another ‘break even’ type week, going right at .500 overall (59-59-0) and losing two UNITS. We still haven’t seen that back-breaking week quite yet and while those are dangerous words to say, the Model continues to perform on the whole, we just wish it were more consistently nailing the UNIT plays. It’s treading water and remains resistent to move off of certain favorites (with more talent than they are displaying on the field), including Toledo, UConn and, of course, Army.

Here is the weekly breakdown from week eight:

The model leaned heavy on the overs a week ago. It’s just not getting the right ones right as it went 12-8 on G5 vs G5 overs, but lost four UNITS, somehow. 6-12 in P4 vs. P4 overs is ugly and we’ll see if it bounces back here in week nine.

Here are the full results rolled up:

It’s been a bit of a roller coaster, getting off to a HOT start, utilizing a big week one to jump out in front. Adding to it in week two and then hitting a WALL in weeks 3-4. Got back after it weeks 5-6, but then plateaued a bit over the last two weeks. Let’s see where we go here in week nine.

WEEK NINE

We have six games under our belts, and our Depth+ subscribers received the tracking document before kickoff on Tuesday via email. If you’d like to join that exclusive group, click here » We only had one UNIT play in those six games, and that was the OVER in the South Alabama vs. Georgia State game last night. That hit. Overall, it went 4-6 in the leans.

We have one play in tonight’s (Friday) three-game slate:

North Texas (-26.5) at Charlotte

Talk about two programs headed in different directions. The Mean Green got back on track against UTSA last week, dominating on the way to a 55-17 throttling. This comes off their first and only loss of the season to the high-powered USF Bulls in week seven. Charlotte’s lone win came back in week three against FCS Monmouth. Not only does the Model see North Texas as supremely talented, but they also see injuries galore on the Charlotte side, forcing them to rely on even less experience as Tim Albin navigates his first season here. The UNT offense should have its way against the 124th-ranked Charlotte defense, and they should not let off the gas as they will battle to stay in the race for the American title and likely a rematch with the Bulls. There is a lean to the OVER 60.5 as well with the model simulation coming out here:

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ADDED SATURDAY MORNING:

Okay, we are back after a solid showing on Friday evening. North Texas didn’t look good from the start, but the talent eventually took over and covered rather easily. Let’s take a look at the Saturday UNIT plays from the simulations:

Memphis (+5.5) vs. South Florida

The Tigers suffered a rough loss to story-of-the-week UAB last week. Talk about a wake-up call. They now host the class of the American thus far, the USF Bulls, who have been running over and through everybody. They haven’t played a close game in four weeks. Their only loss is to Miami (the Florida one), and they beat the actual Florida in week two. The Model still likes the Tigers’ talent level to keep this one close and wants us to take those 5.5 points. QB Brendon Lewis is ‘day-to-day’ with an injury suffered in that game last week, and his status is significant. If he is deemed out, this is sure to kick off the radar. We’ll keep an eye on that pre-game. Our numbers aren’t entirely buying this USF defense, and we could see this one sneaking over the total of 58.5 as well if it becomes a back-and-forth affair.

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Ohio at Eastern Michigan OVER 58.5