Model Plays: Week Seven

Let's take a look back at the week that was and what the Model machine and simulations tell us to expect in week seven...

Another wild and crazy week of college football is in the books. Week six of the 2025 season will be looked back on as a week that may have begun the process of breaking many programs, at least in their current structure and standing. We saw Texas falling further behind and their all-everything quarterback prospect looking very human. We saw James Franklin’s Penn State Nittany Lions suffer through one of the biggest upsets at the hands of the directionless UCLA Bruins for their second loss in a row. Today, we know what will happen in any given week is ludicrous — but we’ll never give up trying!

Week six for our Model was a successful one. It finished up at 59.0% and up +7 UNITS for the second straight week. It performed exceptionally well in the totals game — going 30-20 overall there. Here is a look at a further breakdown of where it ended up:

Overall, in 2025 our Model has projected 592 outcomes for 296 games (FBS vs. FBS only) and is sitting at the following overall numbers:

315-274-18 — 53.2%
+18 UNITS

That’s it! We’ve solved it. We broke Vegas. Right?

Not even close. In every one of these articles, from the start until we stop doing this whole thing, we will continue to disclose that this is NOT perfect and is always a work in progress. Can we find a way to have consistent success over the long term? Sure. Why else would we do this? But we will have bad weeks, and we never suggest putting anything more than you can handle, as a general rule of thumb for anyone who enjoys gambling on our fantastic sport.

So, let’s take a look at what the model machine and simulations have for us in week seven…

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY RESULTS

Our CFBDepth+ subscribers have already seen what the model provided for the early weekday games that are now behind us. We took a hit by a point (in a line that moved) as Southern Miss — a 2-UNIT play — blew a big lead and allowed Georgia Southern to backdoor them. Oh well. We’ve had plenty go the other way this year, and it’s all a part of the game.

So, we are down a tough 3 UNITS thus far.

Note: These are always moving — right up until game time. We make adjustments based on the availability reports, and they are often released just an hour before the game begins. There are usually revelations on player availability that warrant a move in the simulation. That’s why we call them “live” and be sure to check back often.

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FRIDAY PLAYS

We have a three-game slate on tap for Friday evening and there are a couple of plays that the Model tends to like:

Rutgers at Washington OVER 60.5 (1 UNIT)

Rutgers travels across the country to Seattle to take on the Huskies and will do so on a Friday evening. They are coming off of a bye week, so it should not be impacted too greatly. We saw them at home in a Friday night game against Iowa earlier this season that had some fireworks (yes, IOWA), and the Model expects a similar outcome. The Scarlet Knights will need to score to get this up over a high number in the sixties, and they haven’t let us down on the offensive side of the ball yet this season. Rain is in the forecast, which could cause some problems. However, it could cause as many problems on the defense as it would slow down these potent offenses. The expectation is to see a lot of Huskies RB Jonah Coleman (and backup Adam Muhammad) taking advantage of a leaky Rutgers run defense. In the end, Scarlet Knights QB Athan Kaliakmanis and OC Kirk Ciarocca will come up with enough to keep this thing close and going back-and-forth — the best (and only) way for this to rise over that 60-point threshold.