Model Plays: Week Six (Saturday)

We will take a look back at the Model results from week five and turn back to the simulation machine to see what it suggests for week six...FOOTBALL!

In week four, we finished above .500 as a whole but struggled in the higher-confidence plays (upped UNITS). So, we thought, maybe we need to go to a “spray the board” approach. It wasn’t the right week to do that. So, we battled back late, and even though we posted our first sub-.500 week as a whole, we still managed to go +7 units, moving us to +11 on the season. Remember, we don’t suggest plays on any of our zero UNIT plays. However, we will still grade them and refer to them as “leans” to assess our overall progress. We lock the consensus spreads on Saturday morning.

Here is the results breakdown for week five:

Here is a look at the Model results (week-by-week) as a whole through week five:

DISCLAIMER: If you are new here, I do this every week. This is different than any other statistical model. We primarily utilize the ‘talent’ level of a team and include various factors from our depth charts, playing time projections, and other considerations to simulate each game and identify where Vegas may be off-line. Is it a perfect Model? No, and it probably never will be. This is for entertainment purposes, and we’ll continue to strive to give you some winning insights along the way. Don’t put your kids’ 529 Plan on anything you see here, no matter how convincing the write-up!

We are off to a good start in week six with a couple of Thursday night wins on New Mexico State (+1.5) and UNDER 52.5. Neither was a ‘play’ for us, but the leans were on the right side.

FRIDAY NIGHT

So, we have our only 3-unit play going on Friday evening, so we’ll post this for you on Friday night and add more on Saturday morning.

Western Kentucky (+2.5) at Delaware

This is certainly a trend we’ve seen in the Model, and it’s worth noting that it is unlikely to be what it sees from the talent level in Delaware. This has been largely unsuccessful — other than the sneak by from Colorado in week two. It is possible that the Model is just not catching up to this 3-1 Blue Hens squad, and it’s going to go well too often. However, if our Model were like the rest, it would ignore the player-level talent gap and go solely off the results, which would put us right where Vegas has this one. So, maybe it all comes to roost tonight?

Looking at the ‘Game Card,’ it is just clear that the talent level difference according to the player-level data heavily favors the Hilltoppers, who have mainly been ‘meh’ in their 4-1 season to this point. They have played the third-easiest schedule, and in the one challenging match-up, they had their doors blown off by Toledo. They will need to clean up their penalties, as they are ranked 119th in FBS, averaging 74.2 yards per game. The Hens are coming off a bye and are at home in Newark, so those are some positive vibes coming their way. We await the official availability report, which is expected to be released shortly, and it may paint a different picture. However, WKU has no noticeable injuries to report heading into this game. The simulation has the Hilltoppers pulling away in a 39-27 win.

San Diego State (-6.5) vs. Colorado State

It remains interesting and somewhat of a mystery how a Sean Lewis-led team is clearly winning with defense. But that’s where we are in 2025. I’m still checking back to ensure there was no clerical error in the posting of their 35-0 win over Cal in week four. Regardless, they have two shutouts and a 6-3 record (from last week at NIU). The Rams are in a bit of an offensive funk themselves, enough so that another offensive mind, Jay Norvell, is handing over play-calling duties to Matt Mumme. Not much should change in the approach, and they are going with Jackson Brousseau to take over for the struggling Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi at quarterback. Colorado State needs to run the ball, and they appear to have horses to do so, but they must find some room to do so. The other factor at play when examining the ‘Game Card’ is that the Rams are really banged up, including quite a few NEW injuries that will impact this one, including OL Tanner Morley, who was announced ‘out for the season’ after an injury suffered last week. They will also be without a couple of defensive contributors, LB Jacob Ellis and DB Dylan Phelps. Everything piles up and sees a bit of a run away at Snapdragon Stadium on Friday evening:

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Okay, a solid start. Now we add in our Saturday plays. We couldn’t help but notice the influx of offense on Friday evening. We are going to add a slight adjustment across the board to favor some offense in the slate today as they seem to be hitting that stride.

SATURDAY

Here are the suggested plays (all one UNIT) for Saturday. At the end, we’ll provide the full gamut of the simulations so you can see the leans…

Army (-6.5) at UAB and OVER 56.5

Army takes its usual spot as a “Model Play” here in week six. It’s been a roller coaster ride this season with a loss to open things against FCS Tarleton State, followed by an impressive win over K-State in Manhattan, and then two straight losses to good teams (North Texas and ECU). You see that 1-3 (0-2) record and think ‘big-time down year for the Black Knights,’ but the Model isn’t buying it. It sees this team as more talented — espectially in the trenches — than the Blazers. They have been challenged more to this point (34th SOS+ compared to 115th). It’s almost a touchdown spread, so it’s not like Vegas doesn’t realize this team is better than it has played, and it is on the road, but the talent difference is what the simulation sees and it has closer to a two-touchdown spread between these teams. It also sees an OVER play here as both offenses have the edge and it is worth nothing that UAB will be without S Sirad Bryant after he stepped on Tenneesee kicker Max Gilbert’s leg after a kick in their last game before the bye week.

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UTSA (-6.5) at Temple and OVER 58.5

The Model really likes this UTSA offense — and is highly unimpressed with Temple’s defense. That’s about the gist of it. Both teams are coming off of bye weeks and Temple has a few more injury concerns on their side with a lot of questionables, though the expectation is that most will have used the week off rest up and get on the field. Will it matter? The game is in Philly, so that should help the Owls and K.C. Keeler keep this one close, but it is the explosive plays from the Roadrunners that will get this one moving and the Owls have enough on offense, including what appears to be a nice little offensive line advantage over UTSA, to get on the board. If we can get this to go back-and-forth a bit, we’ll get to the total and then UTSA can pull away in the fourth quarter for a little ‘two for one’ special.

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James Madison (-20.5) at Georgia State

Another theme of the Model is fading this Panthers team. They just don’t have the talent-level of the competition. Now, looking at an almost three touchdown spread on the road is never something that screams ‘jump on it!’ but our simulation says to do just that. The Dukes are getting healthier as their running back room is loaded a couple of them — Ayo Adeyi (probable) and Jobi Malary (questionable) — are making their way back. Meanwhile, the Panthers are dealing with quite a few new injuries, especially on defense. A defense that have given up points in droves, albeit against some of the best competition a group of five school has played thus far (33rd SOS+), including Ole Miss (63 points ) and Vanderbilt (70). They did hold Memphis under 40, so there’s a feather. It just doesn’t set up will for the Panthers in their first Sun Belt game and it’s statement time for the Dukes, who will be making a run at that G5 spot in the CFP.

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Buffalo (-9.5) vs. Eastern Michigan

The Bulls have had a disappointing campaign in 2025. Their two wins are against FCS Saint Francis (PA) and Kent State. They have played close games though, and losing to Minnesota and UConn aren’t horrendous outcomes. The Model still likes the talent on this team and getting quarterback TQ Roberson back for this one is going to be a boon to the offense. They are well coached and disciplined, ranking 14th in FBS in penalty yards/game. Eastern Michigan remains without one of their top defensive players, DL Jefferson Adam and that adds to a major talent edge in the trenches — primarily on the offensive side for Buffalo, compared to the Eagles’ front seven. Even with C Jake Timm listed ‘doubtful’ for this one, James Carrington III should hold it down just fine:

All of that leads up to a simulation favoring the Bulls and going away…

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Texas State at Arkansas State OVER 64.5

Yes, that’s a big number — but the simulation suggests it’s not high enough. We know about that Bobcats offense and it’s capabilities, but the key will be Arkansas State matching it throughout the game and avoiding costly turnovers. Texas State has a new injury to CB Jaden Rios and are already without starters Trez Moore (yet to play) and Will Mitchell II. Perhaps Jaylen Raynor can match what Brad Jackson and the Bobcats can do through the air and keep this going back-and-forth for a while? If the Red Wolves can chip in a few scores throughout this one, we see it getting into the seventies.

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Coastal Carolina (+20.5) at Old Dominion

The Monarchs have surpassed just about everybody’s expectations thus far, en route to an early 3-1 record, including an impressive showing in week one against Indiana on the road, losing by just 13 points. They handled business against a down Liberty team last week and now get the Chants, who are coming off of a bye week. There are some linebacker injuries to look out for on the ODU side with star Jason Henderson already calling it a career. Koa Naotala and Mario Thompson are both ‘doubtful’ to play in this one and it’s creating a bit of a void in the second level. Not many G5’s can handle the loss of three starter-quality players at any position group. Does Coastal have what it takes to take advantage? That’s certainly questionable, but can they keep it within three touchdowns? That’s a bit more likely says the simulation:

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Other late night single-UNIT plays:

• Troy (+1.5) and OVER 47.5

• Florida State vs. Miami OVER 53.5

• Mississippi State at Texas A&M OVER 57.5

• California vs. Duke OVER 55.5

Here is the full card for week six: