Model: Week 11 Saturday Plays
Let's check in on the Model and see what it suggests as far as our top plays for Week 11 Saturday...
We’ll start with the disclaimer (again) and remind/inform you that we are still working on this Model and tweaking our algorithms to provide the best possible simulation of each game as possible. We are tracking trends, trying to identify niches and will continue to do so as we build a ‘winning’ Model.
Let’s start with a quick look back at the results from week 10…
In the 49 eligible (FBS vs. FBS) games from week 10, the Model finished right at .500 on the week, down six units. It split the top 4-UNIT plays with NC State hitting and Michigan faltering. It won the 3-point play and if we stopped there, we’d be up. That’s the second week in a row that was the case. If we ‘sprayed the board’ we’d be down juice. It had a lot of confidence in the 18 dogs selected and that’s where we lost the most ground. The OVER trend did continue as it went 19-8 (+4 UNITS) on OVERS, but had some extra confidence in the UNDERS that went 10-12 (-4 UNITS). Pretty much a wash.
Let’s move on to Week 11…
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Army (-2.5) at North Texas
The love for the Black Knights continues in week 11. After a one-week hiatus, they are back at the top of our suggested plays list. This usually hinges on a big advantage in the trenches. The offensive line in particular is the key here and with a still run-heavy (not triple option) “gun option” offense, that can really be taken advantage of. One key factor is the health of QB Bryson Daily. He sat out the 20-3 win last week against Air Force. Dewayne Coleman stepped in admirably, but he is not the dynamo that Daily has shown to be thus far. He is described as “questionable to probable” to play as of time of writing, but honestly, even if Coleman plays, this is still a 2-3 UNIT play due to the other factors. Those include injury impacts still haunting the Mean Green - despite getting healthier - and a general lack of defensive chops. The Mean Green are good on offense, but the Knights can slow them down enough to cover a less than field goal spread that has come down from time of opening. Here is what the Model projects:
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Liberty (-11.5) vs. Middle Tennessee
The Flames are coming off of two straight losses, including to a winless and seemingly overmatched Kennesaw State squad and followed up by a 10-point loss to Jacksonville State. This off of a stretch of playing just one game in four weeks due to a bye week schedule quirk and a hurricane-driven cancellation. We’ll say it again that this Model doesn’t care about any of that. It’s just the kind of noise that drives the lines and the Model sees this Liberty team as significantly more talented on just about every front. That said, the Injury & Impact Report is “High” for the Flames including quite a few losses in the passing game, specifically at wide receiver. Everything we say about this matchup could be said two weeks ago against Kennesaw State, but that was just a ‘clunker’ and the Flames will be more motivated this time around, they head to Murfreesboro and …
UConn (-7.5) at UAB
Just like riding the coattails of the Army Black Knights, the Model tends to fade the Blazers fairly consistently. Again, recency bias is not a thing with our Model — skills, talent, coaching and scheme are. So, that 59-21 win over Tulsa is not playing much into account here. Thus, the line being just 7.5. Before that, head coach Trent Dilfer’s seat was heating up after six straight losses, all by double-digits. The Huskies have been consistently solid all season long and the only ‘edge’ the Blazers have is in their specialists. That usually comes into play more in close games, but the Model doesn’t have this one particularly close.
The other 3-UNIT play is on the OVER in this game as the Model sees a back-and-forth shootout ensuing in Birmingham. Both run fast(er) offensive paces and at least one (UConn) has shown the ability to hit on explosive plays.
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Colorado at Texas Tech OVER 62.5
That total is nothing to sneeze at but the Model sees this one well into the 70’s with two dynamic offenses and one defense at least prone to giving up the explosive plays. Overall Colorado’s defense has been pretty darn good but they haven’t seen many offenses like the Red Raiders’ when clicking on all cylinders. This smells of a back-and-forth game script resulting in a scoreboard lighting up all evening.
Washington State (-20.5) vs. Utah State
This is a case of the Cougars not only being more talented in general, but injuries have hit the Aggies at a high rate and that’s difficult to overcome. Three touchdowns just isn’t enough and the model sees a 55-22 easy win in Pullman.
UTEP (-3.5) vs. Kennesaw State
The Owls turned back into pumpkin last week after the shocking win over Liberty in week nine and Vegas hasn’t totally reset. they actually played WKU somewhat tight (31-14) and while UTEP isn’t exactly setting the world on fire they do have a higher dWIN rating (2.3 compared to 1 actual win) meaning they deserve better in that column. It may be close for a while, but the Model sees the Miners pulling away and covering.
Other 2-UNIT plays include:
Boston College vs. Syracuse - OVER 52.5
West Virginia vs. Cincinnati - OVER 55.5
UConn vs. UAB - OVER 55.5
Michigan +14.5 vs. Indiana
UCF vs. Arizona State - OVER 55.5
Pittsburgh -7.5 at Virginia
If you’d like to see the full ‘blow-by-blow’ we have a Model Tracker document that you can take a look at throughout the day:
Most of all, enjoy this college football Saturday!