Disclaimer: We’ll get this out of the way at the very beginning. This Model is still in its infancy and has had quite a few tweaks and adjustments already. We are still not in a position to officially declare this ready for ‘prime time’ and it will likely be next year before we do so. That said, we can still have some fun and find some edges that may enhance your viewing/earning pleasure this week 12 Saturday…
First, a look back at week 11.
So, we got back on the horse and had a well over .500 week and were up +14 UNITS overall. Interestingly, we hit 13 of 18 UNDERs but didn’t have a lot of confidence in them, staying even on UNITS. Meanwhile, we were under .500 on OVERs but ended up +4 UNITS there. We’ll say this again for our returners (and for the first time for you newbies): There are different trains of thought on the best way to play this type of information. There is “spray the board” with even confidence and let the volume carry you through. There is also the “focused” approach where you only play the top plays … and then there is anywhere in the middle of those. This week, it would have been profitable either way. That has not been the case every week this season (let’s just be honest here).
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We certainly would like to see some of these trends continue, obviously. The top play was Army over North Texas which hit for 5 UNITs. We got lucky in the UConn game as they covered by a half point and that was a 3 UNIT play. Navy and Liberty came through for us as well as 3 UNIT plays. Of the 25 “Group of 5” matchups, the Model struck 58.6% of the time. Man, if we could just keep that even close to it over the course of a season, we’d be cooking!
No major adjustments to the Model this time around and hope we can continue our little streak here. Turning the page to week 12 where we do not see any 5- or 4-UNIT plays jumping out at us. In fact, we only have one play over 3 UNITS and one of them is Friday evening…
We do like UTSA to handle North Texas with relative ease getting a point. Here is the clip from our DeptHITS article posted Friday morning detailing that matchup:
North Texas at UTSA — 8:00 PM ET Looking at these records, you may think that North Texas has the edge. We obviously look far beyond those records in our analysis of these games. We’ll start with North Texas’ dWIN stat of 4.1 (compared to the 5 wins they have). That impact is ranked 104th and means that it is a bit misleading to where they are at. Both teams have played similarly ‘easy’ schedules thus far and are similarly banged up overall. The Roadrunners’ are particularly thin at wide receiver and will need others to step up to help the offense take advantage of a below average Mean Green defense. UTSA is coming off of a bye week and that could be a slight advantage, but where we see the biggest difference between these two is in those trenches again. UTSA has shown an ability to get to the quarterback this season and while UNT has protected decently to this point, this front seven is more talented and dynamic. If the Roadrunners can cause havoc in the backfield, it could be a long day for Chandler Morris and this offense that mustered just three points against Army last week.
This is the second time the Tigers have been a top play for the Model and the first was the projection of a blowout over UMass back in week seven. That one hit and we’ll try to go back to the “Alpha Nerd” well (Mizzou head coach Eli Drinkwitz) and grab another win. Okay, so let’s dive in a bit more here. A LOT is being made of the injury to Brady Cook and starting C Connor Tollison. It has moved the line. Drew Pyne has not been great by any stretch, but he is a veteran, he has been here before and every week he should gain confidence and the coaching staff should be drawing up the offense to fit his skill set. It’s tough to determine the impact the loss of Tollison will have on the offense as a whole - and that is the big wild-card - because we’ve seen poor center play take down even really good offenses if that isn’t working. That said, the Tigers still have a lot of skill talent on this roster with RBs Nate Noel and Marcus Carroll and on the outside with dynamic WRs in Luther Burden III and Theo Wease. South Carolina is heating up, playing well on both sides of the ball and getting healthy all at the same time. The edge that may be exploited is on the left side of that Gamecocks offensive line where Josiah Thompson holds down left tackle. He’s a true freshman and by every PFF metric that feeds our player ratings (8.8/20), he is just not good enough yet. Cason Henry, at the other tackle spot is also not showing well according to the player-level metrics. Simply put, just under two touchdowns seems a bit too much for the Model to buy and actually has the Tigers keeping this one close until the end.
Picking on the Minutemen again. And jumping on the Flames bandwagon (again). With no Taisun Phommachanh at quarterback, both options - AJ Hairston and Ahmad Haston - haven’t shown us enough to warrant much of a sweat. There is also a key defensive injury to keep an eye on for the UMass and that’s LB Derrieon Craig, who made a very limited return to the field in week 10 against Mississippi State and has had the bye week to recover, so he may return, but we’re projecting him at half-speed for purposes of this projection. Both of these teams have played amongst the easiest schedules and Liberty has one of the worst dWINx ratios in the nation (6 wins; 3.6 wins). They also have a loss to Kennesaw State on their resume. The Model doesn’t care much about all of that. Last week they played to their talent level potential in a 20-point in over Middle Tennessee. It expects much of the same in this one…
If you have been following along with our updates this week, you will know that the Owls have had a bit of an exodus since the firing of head coach Brian Bohannon. This includes some role players and a key defensive player in LB Garland Benyard. The Owls were challenged to compete as it was and in their first game since this announcement (following a bye week), they may just get run out of their own stadium. The Bearkats have been winning recently with defense, taking back-to-back wins holding their opponents (albeit FIU and Louisiana Tech) to single-digits. Offensively, they managed just 19 points total in those games. Kennesaw State does not seem to present much of a threat offensively with a All-In Ranking of dead last on offense. The Model sees them mustering just 8 points. Throw in a defense with that same red #134 next to it and we think the Sam Houston offense can some up with similar outputs that they posted earlier this year against UTEP (41 points), Texas State (40) and New Mexico State (31)…
The Model sees this one becoming a good ‘ole fashioned Big Ten knock-down, drag-out battle in Champaign. The defenses should win the day and both offenses lack explosive plays and play slow paces. Both teams also run balanced offenses, but certainly want to run the ball and that would keep the clock ticking.
This one could get up there, even with two very respectable defenses taking the field. SMU is coming off a bye and with both coaches being offensive minds, we can see why this one should go over that number. Bill O’Brien named Grayson James his starting quarterback over Thomas Castellanos, who, in turn left the program. We tend to trust O’Brien’s judgement when it comes to quarterback play and with a weapon like Lewis Bond on the outside and potential talents at tight end like Kamari Morales, they are looking for somebody to stay in the pocket longer and deliver the ball. That has been James. We’ve adjusted the play-calling metric slightly to accommodate that. The Eagles are the key to this one as we feel the Mustangs dynamic offense led by QB Kevin Jennings should hold up their end…
This is one that when you first see the line the public probably leans heavily to Washington State. The Model is just confirming that this is not a trap. The Cougars are a better team than the Lobos and it will play out that way on Saturday night. New Mexico has put together a solid run and getting within striking distance of Bowl eligibility is certainly an accomplishment of it’s own, their recent schedule per SOS+ has been lackluster at best (Air Force, Utah State, Wyoming and San Diego State are four of their last five opponents). Now, in comparison to the recent schedule for the Cougs, it’s similar. But they have disposed of their opponents in a much more impressive fashion (save the 3-point win over San Diego State in week nine as a blip). None of that really matters to the Model itself, it’s more of a “make us feel better about this pick” analysis. The numbers say that Washington State should not be stopped on many possessions (if any). Both teams should hit explosive plays with little resistance, hence the 72.5 total — which the Model still leans OVER…
For the blow-by-blow and every spread and total pick that the Model simulation provides, you can visit here:
