Model: Week Eight Saturday Plays
Let's get a quick update on the (CFBDm) Model from a tough week 7; and take a look at what it likes for today's (Saturday) week 8 action.
We expected a down week one of these weeks and week seven was that week (how many “weeks” can you get in one sentence?). We trudge forward and let the Model collect the data and we’ll react to it. So, here is an overall look at the results from week 7:
Before you go scoffing too much, remember that we need to focus on the UNITS. The overall record is certainly something to track, but that includes all of the games that we would not suggest a play on and could go either way. Also, can somebody explain how that Friday night UNLV / Utah State game stayed under by a half point? That’s the way this whole “gambling” game works. It’s not called “make money easily.” It’s also what makes our game and this hobby great. Like any team (other than BYU apparently), we’ll have our ups-and-downs. The Model is very much a work-in-progress.
|||||| WEEK EIGHT THUS FAR
This week thus far, with 11 games in the books, it is at +1 UNIT (11-11 overall). Mainly, due to a big Duke cover last night. So, a little context around that. This is how fickle this game we play is. Duke was a 3-UNIT play last night. They covered, but it really could have gone either way. If that flips to a loss, it’s an SIX unit swing. That’s what happened to us last week with that UNLV/Utah State OVER 4-UNIT play. Again, just a reminder that we play a game on very thin ice.
|||||| WEEK EIGHT SATURDAY TOP PLAYS
Let’s take a look at what the Model sees as our top plays:
Navy (-16.5) vs. Charlotte — 3 UNITS
It wouldn’t be a Saturday without a suggested play on one of our service academies. The Model still doesn’t think Vegas is giving the Mids the love it deserves. The narrative feeding this line is that Charlotte has won two in a row, including a drubbing of East Carolina two weeks ago (before a bye last week) and they are getting healthier after a ravaging training camp. It all makes sense. But, the Model doesn’t really take that into account. It simply sees the Midshipmen as having a major edge in just about every category, amounting to another easy win.
New Mexico at Utah State OVER 77.5 — 2 UNITS
This is a hard reminder that the Model is not human and does not hold grudges. It simply simulates the games based on the available data and trends and gives us a final score. It just so happens that EVERY, SINGLE metric leads it to believe that there will be very few defensive stops in this one. Vegas has this at a number trying to scare people away and the conventional wisdom is that you just always take the under in games over 75+. Why? Well, everything has to break right to go over that high of a number, right? In this one, we are not so sure. I think this is the highest possible total our Model is capable of producing. Here’s why:
Both are in the bottom 10 defensively overall. UNM 133rd / Utah State 127th.
Both are in the middle-of-the-pack and capable offensively: UNM 80th / Utah State 84th.
Both run “fast” offensive paces
Both are putting up a lot of explosive plays on offense: UNM 47th / Utah State 26th
Both are allowing a lot of explosive plays on defense: UNM 132nd / Utah State 129th
That’s going to get us this:
North Carolina State (+10.5) at California - 2 UNITS
This is one that has us scratching our heads. If you just look at the results from the season thus far and the trajectory of both programs, you’d think this line is more than fair, especially with the Wolfpack traveling across the country to take on the Bears. However, the data has this one staying close and actually has the Wolfpack pulling it out. This can shift with some injury news, so stay tuned as the Bears have a few impact “Questionable” players including dynamic RB Jaydn Ott and LB Ryan McCulloch. The Wolfpack have LB Caden Fordham also listed as “Questionable” and would be a difference-maker either way based on his status.
Clemson (-20.5) vs. Virginia - 2 UNITS
The Model has this one getting ugly and it is in line with the data coming in on Clemson who have utterly dominated after the week one clunker against Georgia. Sure, you can argue the level of competition hasn’t exactly been top-notch since that showdown against the Dawgs (including Appalachian State, NC State, Stanford, Florida State and Wake Forest), but the margin of victory and dominating style has them showing well. The Cavs are 4-2 and played a really good Louisville team tight a week ago, losing by just four-points. The post-game numbers suggest it shouldn’t have been that close. In fact, UVA has a 3.7 dWINS (our own proprietary “deserved wins” stat), which suggests they aren’t exactly a four-win team. All of that plays into a dominating win for the Tigers:
Other 2-UNIT plays:
Auburn at Missouri - OVER 50
Wake Forest at UConn - OVER 56
LSU at Arkansas - OVER 57
Memphis (-11) vs. North Texas & OVER 69
SMU (-15.5) at Stanford
TCU at Utah - OVER 49.5
Here is a look at the full blow-by-blow tracker for week eight for the Model:
Enjoy your Saturday full of college football action here in week eight. Please consider subscribing and spreading the word of our little endeavor. Thanks in advance.