Model: Week Seven Saturday Plays
Let's take a look at what the (CFBDm) Model predicts for this sure-to-be wild week seven Saturday around college football and give some updates on changes made to our work-in-progress here...
Friday evening is a perfect example of why it would be wise to keep gambling on college football to a fun hobby, rather than a profession. The Model was clearly on the right side of the UNLV game (-19) but the Rebels just stopped playing in the second half and were backdoored. Nobody saw this start coming from Arizona State, and the Model foresaw a Utah route and plenty of points. Neither happened. So, what do we do? We bounce back and take a look at what the simulations bear out for this week seven Saturday and take a look. First, let’s discuss some changes made to the Model:
1.) REALLY BAD DEFENSES ADJUSTMENT
We were noticing a flaw in the system that the Model was not accounting for and that is the drop off between the last 8-9% of the defenses at the FBS level. They go from bad (105-115) to really, really bad (116+) and we needed to find a way to account for this. It certainly came true last night with Utah State giving up a 50-burger to the Rebels, and it really could have been a lot worse. You should see this adjustment in this weeks version of our simulations.
2.) EXPLOSIVE PLAYS
We also added in a little algorithmic change to account for explosive plays we are seeing. Now that we are a few weeks in, we can start to see who is creating and sometimes relying on those big, chunk plays. And, equally as important, we are seeing the teams who are allowing them. Even just two big plays from either team that go for touchdowns are big swaying factors for totals in these games.
|||||| WEEK SIX RECAP
Week six was a big week for the newly revamped v2 of the Model and, despite a wild-and-crazy week, it ended up +4 UNITS on the whole. Remember, we grade every single game, including the point spread (side) and total for each to get our "overall record” but only suggest “plays” on games that we see going +/- 5.5 points in either direction. So, the UNITS are the real measure. We are also tracking how we are doing in certain types of games (Power 4 / Group of 5) to see if we are outperforming in a certain area to latch on to a niche…
If you’d like to see the “blow by blow” of the week six results, please click the link above. Not a whole lot to glean from these results. The trend is that games are going OVER at a higher clip and our best performance was in our seven OVERS at the G5 vs. G5 games at 5-2. Offenses are definitely starting to take shape and come into form; we’ll see if that continues in week seven.
|||||| WEEK SEVEN TOP PLAYS
Disclaimer: Here it is. Don’t forget. This is still a brand new Model that we are developing and adjusting as we go along. It is by no means perfect and, quite frankly, never will be. This is a fun exercise using our data from our depth charts, combined with other factors to try to predict the scores of these often unpredictable games (see: last week). DO NOT put your house on any of these plays that follow. Could you dabble? Sure, why not?
Cincinnati at UCF - OVER 58.5 - 4 UNITS
The only 4 UNIT play of the day is on this over that is driven by our new explosive play factor coming into play. Both squads are capable of breaking off big plays, and while both of these squads have solid defenses, the game script leads us to believe this becomes a back-and-forth, shootout in Orlando today.
Missouri (-27) at UMass - 3 UNITS
The Model doesn’t have a human factor included here, but I’m starting to think AI is creeping in and taking into account that the Tigers are really looking to “get right” after an embarrassing performance in their first road test at Texas A&M last week and falling fast in the polls. No, the Model just stays focused on what both teams are putting on the field. And what it sees is a Mizzou team that is wildly more talented than UMass and should have no problem winning this by 4+ scores.
Memphis (-7) at South Florida & OVER 61 - 3 UNITS each
Simply put, the Tigers are a better team that USF at this moment. Both teams are coming off of bye weeks and Memphis’ only slip up is to what is clearly a pretty darn good Navy team. The Bulls have played a tougher schedule, including games at Alabama and against Miami, so there could be a little factor at play with the level of competition at play keeping this line depressed. The Model sees the Tigers getting their second win in the state of Florida today:
Army (-27.5) at UAB — 3 UNITS
It would not be a Model Play Saturday article without the Black Knights making an appearance. Vegas is trying to deter those who have been cashing in on the lack of respect put in our Armed Forces, but they didn’t go far enough according to the Model. The big difference at play is a dominance on the lines of scrimmage, that will allow this Knights offense to do whatever they please against a hapless UAB defense, who just gave up 71 to Tulane a week ago.
There are some more 3-UNIT play out there in our full slate of action, including:
Illinois / Purdue UNDER 48.5
Southern Miss / Louisiana UNDER 41
Air Force +6.5 at New Mexico
Texas State -14 vs. Arkansas State & OVER 66
Kentucky / Vanderbilt UNDER 44.5
Check out the full smattering of predictions and plays here:
Best of luck and enjoy another, sure-to-be, nutty Saturday in college football! Please consider subscribing and sharing our work. It really does help.