Model: Week Ten Plays
Let's see what the (CFBDm) Model says about this week ten slate and continue to tweak it to find a winning formula...
We’ll start with the disclaimer. This Model is in its infancy. We are using this first season to collect data and make the adjustments needed to find that winning formula. Last week we took a little UNIT hit after going above .500 overall on the plays. The Model simulates each game and provides a lean or a play on each spread and total. Here are the week nine results:
That is a snippet from the Model Tracker we post each week to get the blow-by-blow if you feel so inclined. We hit on our favorites (North Carolina and Colorado State) but got beat on our 2-unit plays throughout the day/evening. It’s cool. We’re learning. Had we sprayed the board with all one-unit plays, we’d be up. If we just played the top five plays, we’d be up. If we played it the way we are suggesting, we’d be down six units. These are the kinds of things we’ll keep in mind as we continue to build beyond the algorithm — go into our niches and avoidance spots.
The Overs stayed hot last week, though we are seeing a cooling (with the weather) as the Unders are hitting in the weekday games thus far in week 10. Another trend we should always keep an eye on. Little tweaks make all of the difference.
So, let’s turn the page to week ten shall we…
|||||| 4-UNIT PLAY
We don’t usually have many of these. One or two a week. Last week, it was North Carolina over Virginia. That one was never in doubt. This week, the Model gives us two plays…
Michigan (+14.5) vs. Oregon
This week the Model loves some Michigan. In fact, it sees the Wolverines winning this game and knocking off the #1 team in the land. Just like said last week, this Model has no feelings. It is not impacted by a lot of conjecture or talking heads. It doesn’t worry about common opponents (obviously, as Oregon just straight whooped Illinois last week, who had no problem with Michigan the week before). It’s straight data, homie.
Taking a look at the Game Card for this one, it’s really telling a story of evenly matched teams. The data shows an advantage for Michigan’s defensive line compared to Oregon’s offensive line. Same can be said on the other side of the ball for Oregon against Michigan. So, it’s really the home field advantage (+3.5 to Michigan) that gives the edge. The reason it rises to a top play status is the two-plus touchdowns given to the Wolverines. The Under is a slight (one unit) play as well.
This one makes me nervous, for sure.
North Carolina State (-9.5) vs. Stanford
The Model likes the Wolfpack in this one at home, coming off of a bye week in an early kickoff with the Cardinal traveling cross-country. That is one part of it. The other is that the talent level between these two rosters is as far apart as the campuses. RB Jordan Waters playing for NC State would be another boon as he has had the off week to rest up and get healthy. After four blowouts in a row, the Cardinal put up a fight against Wake Forest a week ago, falling by just three points. QB CJ Bailey is improving each week and the win at California a couple weeks ago is a notch in their belt. In the trenches, the Wolfpack have a big advantage, so…Model says…
|||||| 3-UNIT PLAY
Colorado State (-2.5) at Nevada
Only one three-unit play and it’s our friends the Rams who came through last week with a defensive outing against New Mexico and squeaked out a win and cover for us. The Wolfpack surprised many with their start to the season, playing SMU tough, then winning at Troy. Things have derailed a bit for Jeff Choate’s squad, including a convincing loss at Hawaii a week ago. The Rams are handling business in close games, riding a three-game winning streak by a total of 27 points. Many will point to a common opponent here and see that Nevada beat Oregon State in week seven, the week after the Beavers handed the Rams a set back. That may be depressing this line enough to make it a top play for us. But, the real factor at play here is this:
One of our new features at CFBDepth (and featured on the Game Card) is an Injury Impact Report. It measures the impact of all injuries, and those that are considered “new”. The Wolfpack came out of that Hawaii game banged up. And, even though their starting quarterback Brendon Lewis appears ready to play, there are injuries up and down with a lot of question marks. We see the depth of talent at Nevada a problem as well. All of that leads to this…
|||||| TWO-UNIT PLAYS
Not a ton of over two-unit plays this week, so here is the laundry list of those to finish up the Model suggestions for week ten (click on the game for a link to the Game Card):
If you want to see the 1-UNIT plays and all of the leans for the day, feel free to check out the Tracker here:
That’s our show for this week. Enjoy week 10 and let it be profitable!