SOTC Update: LSU Tigers
Brian Kelly finished his third season in Baton Rouge and the Tigers have not been a legitimate National Title contender under his watch. That needs to change.
LSU Tigers
State of the Chart™ Recap Edition
Live All-In Ranking: 14th
Offense: 14th
Defense: 27th
2024 Results: 9-4 (5-3 in SEC)
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|||||| STATE OF THE CHART™ SUMMARY
Brian Kelly was brought here from Notre Dame to win championships. Thus far, his tenure is defined by attracting a lot of individual talent but coming up short in the big games that could catapult this team back to national prominence. That narrative is going to need to change very soon. This team has the quarterback and that alone gives enough hope to hang your hat on; but the defense has to match the level of play on the other side of the ball and Garrett Nussmeier can’t be expected to win every game chucking it 50+ times (well, at least not consistently). Defensive coordinator Blake Baker is going to need to live up to that lofty status as an up-and-coming star in the coaching profession and take the talent that is pumping through this program and mold it into a unit that is feared. Then, it simply comes down to finishing games, avoiding the big mistakes (both mental and physical) and go on an extended run.
|||||| HEAD COACH AND COACHING STAFF
Brian Kelly left Notre Dame to go to a place where he could win National Titles. Now three seasons into his tenure at LSU and the Tigers have not come close to competing for that ultimate prize (while Notre Dame made in CFP Championship game). Sure, the talent is there and the individual performances has been off the charts; but that needs to culminate in not just wins - but Championships. It's a stretch to say that he is on the hot seat, but that chair is warming and a lot more is expected in 2025 as patience will really begin to wear thin.
Kelly did make news this off-season by putting his money where is mouth is by asking for more “big money” donors — and becoming one himself, pledging $1 Million to an NIL fund.
Coaching Staff Notes/Changes:
Joe Sloan is the offensive coordinator and will remain the play caller for this offense in 2025. Blake Baker returned to Baton Rouge after a stop at Mizzou and definitely got things improved on that side of the ball, though there were still some uneven performances. Kelly is bringing in former Miami defensive coordinator Lance Guidry as a defensive analyst to team-up with Baker and provide another veteran presence on the staff.
Former UConn head coach Bob Diaco will not return to the LSU staff. He is rumored to be heading to North Carolina as the linebackers coach. He served as the special teams and linebackers coach, as well as a Senior defensive analyst for Brian Kelly the past three seasons.
Up-and-comer Slade Nagel is leaving the program to take the offensive coordinator role at Houston. He was the special teams coordinator and tight ends coach in 2024 after coming to Baton Rouge from Tulane.
To backfill Nagel’s departure, Kelly recently hired special teams coordinator Aman Anand away from FCS Grambling State. He has experience at Baylor and Penn State. He’s well respected and is making a big jump for 2025.
They also landed former Florida State offensive coordinator Alex Atkins to take over on on-field role, believed to be tight ends coach and run game coordinator.
Update (2/28): Defensive line coach Bo Davis is leaving the program to join the NFL’s New Orleans Saints in the same position. Davis was paid handsomely to re-join the Tigers staff before the 2024 season. LSU is his alma mater. That lasted just one season.
Note: This is a “dynamic” article; meaning we will update any information that comes in this “off-season” and post a note when impactful moves are made or news breaks.
|||||| 2024 SCHEDULE / RESULTS ANALYSIS
The LSU loss and the South Carolina win each look a lot different at the end of the season compared to the instant reaction. The USC loss looked acceptable and the three-point escape in Columbia was met with skepticism. However, now that we look back on that, those instant reactions were off-base and end up washing themselves out. Week nine in College Station against A&M was the pivotal week and the 38-23 loss kicked off a three-game SEC losing streak, including an embarrassing blowout loss to Alabama in Baton Rouge and ended any hope of a post-season bid to anything other than a lower-level bowl game. The strong finish helped make this look better than it actually was. And, what it was, was a tough slate - ranked 12th in FBS - for difficulty according to our SOS+ metric.
Further evidence from our dWIN (deserved wins) metric shows that nine wins is a bit of a mirage and we have them closer to a 7-win squad — 7.1 to be exact. This metric takes into account SOS, turnover luck, weighted spread performance and most importantly, the post-game win expectancy numbers (PGWE) from collegefootballdata.com. The glaring ones are the 15% posted in the South Carolina win and just a 27% on the three-point win over Ole Miss, which put a damper on what at the time looked like a signature win. The most curious is the 27% PGWE posted for the 44-21 win over Nicholls State in week two.
||||||| POSITION GROUP CHECK-INS
OFFENSE: Offensive coordinator Joe Sloan leaned heavily on the golden arm of quarterback Garrett Nussmeier this year as the Tigers pass play rate (59%) was third in all of FBS. Who could blame him? Nussmeier is/was really good. That said, the lack of a running game to set it up and keep opposing defenses honest, simply was not there. True freshman Caden Durham ended up taking the lead back role and performed admirably and the offense finished posting over 30 points per game, but it was not elite like it was in the not-so-distant past. If they can create some fear in opponents on first down running the football, it would go a long way. That said, another year of maturity from Nussmeier and you may not have to.
||| QB
Nussmeier got the call to take over for the great Jayden Daniels and he performed admirably. The hype was justified. He tossed for over 4,000 yards and 29 touchdowns. He should cut down on that interception total (12) as he continues to mature, but the future is now for Nussmeier. He is set to return for likely one more season. Both backups hit the portal but Michael Van Buren Jr. comes in from Mississippi State to provide a capable backup.
||| RB
Caden Durham led the way and was the highest performer as a true freshman for this maligned group. Josh Williams backed up and was solid in his final season in Baton Rouge. Kaleb Jackson was third in the pecking order. Durham will return and is one of the top young backs in the game. They get a couple of 4-star prospects in the class, led by Harlem Berry, who could carve out a role as a true freshman after putting up insane numbers in his high school career down there in Louisiana. However, he did so against lower-level competition, so he’ll need to show he can do it at the higher level. Many have little doubt that will happen.
||| WR
Kyren Lacy got the glitz and glamour in this group but Aaron Anderson was right there with him and was certainly more reliable. CJ Daniels and Chris Hilton Jr. battled injuries all season and that opened the door for Zavion Thomas to show what he could do, and the former 4-star Mississippi State recruit is on the verge of a breakout. They hit the portal to bring in a few weapons to supplement as Hilton's health can't be relied on; though the same can be said for most of those they are bringing in, including Oklahoma’s Nic Anderson, Kentucky’s Barion Brown and former Florida State Seminole Destyn Hill. Loads of talent will make up for any lost time due to injuries or other missed time.
||| TE
Mason Taylor was a big part of this offense and a reliable underneath option for Nussmeier. He was not a red zone threat. Trey'Dez Green took that on, who put up four touchdown catches out of his 13 total grabs. Green also showed well in his handling of pass protection when called upon to do that (just 45% of the time). Taylor is heading to the NFL a year early, but they are set with Green. Ka'Morreun Pimpton was going to be a secondary option, but he's transferring out to TCU.
||| OL
The data suggests that the achilles heel of this offense was a lack of an established run game and this group is to blame. In particular, center DJ Chester struggled in run blocking and RG Miles Frazier was downright amazing in pass protection, but was average in the run game. As a result, team finished 107th in rush yards per game. Four of five starters are heading out. The only returner is the aforementioned Chester, who needs to grow up quickly and likely moves to one of the guard spots as they nab Virginia Tech center Braelin Moore in the portal, who is a big upgrade. They also landed Josh Thompson from Northwestern to take over one of the guard spots. Word of warning if they plan on going with Paul Mubenga at the other guard spot. PFF data suggests he was below replacement level in his sample size that included over 430 snaps at left guard. Work remains to be done here.
DEFENSE: Blake Baker's group was certainly improved in 2024, but they remained very inconsistent. They were good at getting in the backfield and finished off the quarterback 34 times. The issues ran deep in both facets of the game. The secondary certainly possessed plenty of talent, but gave up 7.7 yards per pass play (ranked 91st). Meanwhile, the run stopping wasn't much better. They allowed 4.3 yards per attempt (73rd) and gave up way too many explosive plays on the ground. 27 opponent run plays went for 30 or more yards throughout the season (ranked 118th). There were good performances against UCLA, Arkansas and Vanderbilt - not exactly offensive juggernauts in 2024. And, there were bad performances, like that time Alabama racked up 311 yards on the ground and put up a 42-spot. Baker has earned a lot of praise but he'll need to get this group to the next level for that to continue.
||| DL
Former Oregon EDGE Bradyn Swinson was the leader of this group, picking up nine sacks and 42 hurries. The dude helped out in the run game as well with 31 stops. Sai'vion Jones was a solid second option on the other side with Gio Paez helping to plug the middle, which was accomplished less than they hoped. All three have run out of eligibility and as they load up in the portal, they are going to need to find some run stuffers. In fact, their top four, including Paris Shand, are out of eligibility. They got a good one coming in from Florida in Jack Pyburn (15.2 run defense rating). They will need a couple more. Shone Washington (former JUCO and UGA) gets another year thanks to the Pavia rule. This will be a bit of a rebuild.
||| LB
Sophomore Whit Weeks was all over the field for the Tigers, but he lacked much help from his teammates. That includes one Harold Perkins, who has gone from a “can't miss” prospect to just another guy at this point. They will need him to regain his form and take over for graduating Greg Penn III, the clear number two in this group. Weeks will return and be the leader of the defense. The short-term is fine with Weeks a part of it and they bring in four 4-star recruits in the class for a bright future (see below, they have the top linebacker recruiting class in the land).
||| DB
This group is blamed for a lot of the defensive problems. CB Zy Alexander was good as a starting corner while Ashton Stamps had his moments, but was inconsistent. That's probably a good word to describe the group as a whole -- inconsistent. They lose Alexander to graduation but hit the portal hard to get some replacements. Add safety Jardin Gilbert to the list of inconsistent, he was a starter but struggled at times. A couple of true freshman received some valuable experience as Dashawn Spears and PJ Woodland may be on their way to taking a big step forward. Tamarcus Cooley (NC State) and Mansoor Delane (Virginia Tech) join Stamps as the top three and will be an upgraded group.
SPECIAL TEAMS: The punting game was a clear weakness this year as the revolving door of Blake Ochsendorf and Peyton Todd didn’t yield great results. Kicker Damian Ramos was good (23-for-29). WR Zavion Thomas has taken over as the full-on kick and punt return specialist and handle those duties well. All of the specialists appear set to return at this point and all told it’s a top-35 group and could improve with another year.
Reader feedback is requested and encouraged! Who knows these teams better than their passionate fan bases? We don’t pretend to know it all and would love your feedback. We will update/edit based (and credit) for anything that is brought to our attention. Let’s do this together…
|||||| TRANSFER PORTAL TRACKER
247Sports has the Tigers as having the top portal haul of the cycle. We don’t disagree with that as they are bringing in a lot of talent. However, our ratings/rankings are different. We include the losses for an overall “talent churn” analysis. And they are losing a ton as well. They come in at 54th currently overall and sixth in the SEC at the time of writing. We’ve mentioned the biggest “get” of the cycle is a major area of need by locking up cornerback Tamarcus Cooley from North Carolina State. The problem is that they are also losing quite a bit from the defensive backs group. They bring in some high upside wide receivers, who, if they can stay healthy, could make a big immediate impact. Leading the way there is former Sooner Nic Anderson. The losses on the defensive line are glaring with the top two leaving are Jay’Viar Suggs (Wisconsin) and Da’shawn Womack (Ole Miss).
Below is a screen shot of the full, live Transfer Portal Tracker over at CFBDepth.com. Click the image or the button below to view it in its entirety…
|||||| 2025 RECRUITING CLASS
The Tigers class is coming in as a top-15 group but certainly would have been a lot higher if not for the loss of the top quarterback recruit who was flipped away from the Tigers to Michigan. Bryce Underwood is the first ever ‘100’ rated prospect for On3 and he now heading to the Wolverines after his original commitment to LSU.
The focus right now is on the defensive side of the ball, coming in at 3rd overall and first in the linebacking corps with four, 4-star recruits coming in. They also are re-loading the running back room with a couple of in-state runners in Harlem Berry and JT Lindsey.
Here is a snapshot of the 2025 Recruiting Class+ with a link to the live page with updates throughout the cycle:
|||||| 2025 SCHEDULE LOOK AHEAD
The Tigers trade with Georgia for the right to play Clemson in week one. That happens to be on the road this year and presents another tough challenge to get things kicked off. A win sets the stage for something special, though, if it ends up like the opener in 2024 (loss to USC), it is an early disappointment and doesn’t leave a lot of room for error later in the season. Their other non-conference opponents should be cake walks. They get Florida at home but need to travel to Ole Miss who will have not forgotten about the 2024 matchup that ended up going the Tigers’ way - deserved or not. They get both South Carolina and Alabama at home coming off of a bye, but that may not matter if the don’t handle their business on the road in the week prior to the off week against the Rebels in week five and A&M in week nine.
There is a lot of movement and decisions to be made throughout the off-season, including more portal moves, winter workouts and spring ball. Get all caught up with the full-on State of the Chart Magazine coming in July. If you missed the ad before, get more information and give us your e-mail to stay in the loop on everything SOTC!
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