The Ripple Effect: James Franklin

Jaden Del Guercio makes his writing debut, beginning a series of articles examining each of the 16 head coach firings, the fallout, the path forward, and the ripple effect on other coaching positions.

Jaden Del Guercio is a college sports enthusiast from Los Angeles, California. His passions are college football and hockey. He is another Oregon Ducks fan and is not afraid to let you know about it. He makes his writing debut for CFBDepth after helping behind the scenes with data collection and insights during the 2025 season.

James Franklin received his first head-coaching position at Vanderbilt in 2011. The Commodores, prior to hiring Franklin, had only two winning seasons since 1980 and only two bowl wins in program history. After a respectable debut season of 6-7, Franklin led Vanderbilt to new heights, going 9-4 in back-to-back seasons and adding two bowl wins. Following the major scandal involving longtime head coach Joe Paterno and a few mediocre seasons under Bill O’Brien, the Nittany Lions turned to the young and rising Franklin to lead a return to the winning ways they were accustomed to.

How it went down

During Franklin’s tenure at Penn State, he compiled a record of 104-45, placing him tied for the 2nd-most wins in program history. During his 12-year tenure, Franklin restored the sustained success and stability that Happy Valley had been seeking, culminating in a 2022 Rose Bowl victory over Utah.

You may find yourself asking, "Why was Franklin under so much scrutiny as of late, considering how successful he was?”

The reason for Franklin’s warm seat was due to his lack of success in the big games. The games you are expected to win at Penn State. Before his midseason firing this past fall, he had a record of 4-21 against AP Top 10 opponents, including a 1-10 overall record against Ohio State and a 3-7 record against Michigan. To add fuel to the fire, the Nittany Lions went 1-8 at Beaver Stadium when facing top ten opponents under Franklin. Due to his lack of success against these key Big Ten rivals, Penn State made no College. Football Playoff appearances and Ten Championship only twice. After a successful 2024 season, in which Penn State lost a close game to Notre Dame in the CFP semifinal, tensions began to rise internally within the program as Franklin went 0-3 against top-ten opponents once again. Firing him wasn’t even on the radar, given the general level of success and the core of the roster returning to compete in 2026, which led to expectations of a run at a National Title.

They retained 18/22 starters from 2024, led by star QB Drew Allar and their star running back tandem of Kaytron Allen and Nicholas Singleton. With a cakewalk non-conference schedule, all eyes were on the 2024 Big Ten Championship game rematch against Oregon at home in week five. With College Gameday in town and the national media all over this one. The expectations and trajectory of the season would depend heavily on the outcome of this game.

Down 17-3 in the fourth quarter, the Nittany Lions made a prolific comeback to get the game into overtime. Following an Oregon touchdown and failed two-point conversion in Double OT, trailing 30-24, Allar dropped back on the first play and threw an interception to star Safety Dillon Thieneman. That moment could be considered the official turning point in the James Franklin regime.

The outrage was at an alarmingly high level, with thousands of fans chanting “Fire Franklin” as they left the stadium. The very next week, the Nittany Lions lost 42-37 to the UCLA Bruins, who at the time were 0-4 and appeared to be one of the worst power-five teams heading into that game. They had just fired their head coach, Deshaun Foster, and the Lions appeared to have lost motivation, with morale at an all-time low. The next week, James Franklin and the team played Northwestern at home and lost 22-21. The feeling of eeriness in the air as James Franklin walked off the field that day was difficult to watch. Athletic Director Pat Kraft and the Penn State administration proceeded to fire Franklin the very next day, which is wild considering that about 10 months prior, he had them one drive away from making the national championship. The domino effect that followed was historic and groundbreaking in the college football world.

The Transition to Matt Campbell

Terry Smith, a longtime positional coach at Penn State, served as interim coach and led the Nittany Lions to a 4-3 record, including a bowl victory, following the departure of James Franklin. He did a really solid job in weathering the storm, including a near win against the eventual National Champion Indiana Hoosiers. A few weeks later, Franklin was hired by Virginia Tech after the Hokies became the first team to fire their head coach, releasing Brent Pry after an awful start to the season. Notably, Pry has deep ties with Franklin, having worked for him at Vanderbilt and Penn State. He was brought back to Blacksburg and will serve as Franklin’s defensive coordinator in 2026.

For Virginia Tech, this had significant implications, as a program that was once at the pinnacle of college football has now landed a proven veteran coach with legitimate expectations. One of Franklin’s top qualities is his recruiting ability, and the Hokies experienced a rapid increase in commitments, placing them around the top 30 in most recruiting rankings. According to CFBDepth.com’s transfer portal churn rate, Virginia Tech ranked 30th in this year’s portal cycle, including 12 Penn State transfers joining Franklin. Brent Pry joined Franklin’s staff as a defensive coordinator, which also helped retain many players on the defense in the portal. One benefit of Franklin's quick hiring was a clause in his buyout stating that if he joined a new team within the next year, the buyout would be reduced from roughly 50 million to about 9 million.

For Penn State, the timing of this firing caused their recruiting class to dwindle and led to a significant loss percentage in the portal due to James Franklin’s stable standing. They were, however, able to lure long-time Iowa State Head Coach Matt Campbell to take over this job. Despite Penn State moving the slowest of the power four teams looking for a new leader, their call it “patience,” was rewarded with potentially the best of the bunch in Campbell. He elevated Iowa State to a standard it has not achieved in multiple decades. Although CFBD’s transfer portal team rankings place Penn State 124th in total talent churn rate, hiring Campbell enabled the university to achieve one of the quickest recoveries possible. Campbell brought along 18 active Iowa State players, including standout quarterback Rocco Becht. He also cleaned up the recruiting mess by helping Penn State finish with a top 75 class overall.

Iowa State ended up being the biggest loser in this situation, as a 10-year tenure with Matt Campbell and significant program momentum were suddenly shattered right under their noses. Iowa State does not have the top-tier funding and resources to produce an elite program at present, and Matt Campbell was a key factor in their overachieving. The Cyclones lost essentially every elite player on their roster to either the draft or the portal, and because Campbell left so late into the cycle, they were left multiple steps behind everyone else during the chaos of the portal opening.

The Ripple Effect

Any major head coaching firing or dismissal is a trigger event that can lead to a wide-ranging ripple effect. Let’s take a look at how this firing and eventual new hire impacted other jobs around college football:

James Franklin fired as head coach at Penn State »»» Terry M. Smith hired as interim coach for the remainder of the 2025-26 season »»» Matt Campbell (Iowa State head coach) hired as head coach at Penn State »»» Jimmy Rogers (Washington State head coach) hired as head coach at Iowa State »»» Kirby Moore (Missouri Offensive Coordinator) hired as head coach at Washington State »»» Chip Lindsey (Michigan Offensive Coordinator) hired as OC at Missouri.

The New Staff

Campbell brought along with him four other positional coaches including his offensive coordinator at Iowa State, Taylor Mouser. Former UCLA and USC defensive coordinator D’Anton Lynn was hired to act in the same role, across the country in State College. Terry M. Smith who demonstrated immense passion for the program was retained on Campbell’s staff to help preserve some of that classic Penn State culture and he’ll coach cornerbacks and serve as associate head coach. Special Teams Coordinator Justin Lustig was also retained by Campbell on this staff. Here is a look at the new full, on-field Penn State coaching staff for 2026:

Will it Work?

Matt Campbell has big shoes to fill and a ton of expectations following a guy with the stature of James Franklin. Fortunately, he received some luck in terms of scheduling as he begins his Big Ten debut season. Penn State avoided Oregon, Ohio State, and Indiana in 2026 as well as nothing too treacherous in the out of conference portion. With a lot of veteran players at leadership positions and more continuity than some might expect, Penn State is in line for a potential quick turnaround under Campbell. My belief is that the expectation is to be a legitimate factor in the Big Ten title race year one and hopefully a valid national title contender threat down the road. While on paper, just about every new hire gives a vibe of improvement — it doesn’t always happen. With Campbell’s track record and a boost in resources to succeed, this one seems set up for success.