Week 11 Quick HITS
We take a look back at week 11 and pull out the biggest storylines, misleading results, trends, and the impact of pre- and in-game injuries. We'll throw in a
Another wild week of college football has passed, and we now have some clarity on what transpired on the field, as we have our first release of the College Football Playoff (CFP) rankings. Let’s take a look at the biggest on-field storylines as we head down the stretch and each team positions itself for runs at Conference Championship appearances. In this Monday morning edition of the HITS, we’ll do the following:
A look at the on-field storylines that took form in week 11
Identify the most misleading results we saw from the week that was
Show you the in-game injuries we are tracking as we prepare to flip our focus to week 12
Let’s go…
TOP ON-FIELD STORYLINES ::::::
Oregon Survives in Iowa City
In one of the most anticipated matchups of Week 11, No. 9 Oregon narrowly escaped No. 20 Iowa with an 18–16 victory, preserving its College Football Playoff hopes. The Ducks struggled offensively against the Hawkeyes, managing just one touchdown while settling for field goals. Oregon’s defense stepped up late, forcing a turnover on downs in the final minute to seal the win. The game showcased the physicality and playoff-caliber intensity expected in November, with both teams battling through injuries and momentum swings. The gritty win keeps Oregon in the thick of the playoff race. These are the types of wins that help build character, surviving a hostile road environment against a ranked opponent. Iowa, meanwhile, proved it belongs in the national conversation despite the loss, and could still play spoiler in the Big Ten.
Top 25 Stunners
Week 11 delivered chaos as three College Football Playoff top-25 teams were stunned by unranked foes: No. 23 Washington lost to Wisconsin 13–10, No. 14 Virginia fell to Wake Forest 16–9, and No. 15 Louisville was edged out by Cal 29–26 in overtime. Each upset featured late-game heroics and defensive dominance, with Cal’s overtime win standing out for its dramatic finish. These results shook up the playoff picture and reminded us that, really, anything can happen in this great sport. The losses are particularly damaging for Virginia and Louisville, both of which were in contention for conference titles and potential playoff berths.
Texas Tech is the Real Deal
The Red Raiders lived up to the billing, dominating BYU in the national spotlight and solidifying themselves as a legitimate national title contender. Getting QB Behren Morton back was important, but the defensive dominance was on full display, forcing three turnovers and limiting BYU to just 255 total yards. At the same time, kicker Stone Harrington set a school record with five field goals. Morton threw for 219 yards and a touchdown despite a leg injury, and Cameron Dickey added 121 rushing yards and a score. With the win, Texas Tech improved to 9–1 and earned a key tiebreaker over BYU, positioning itself for a potential rematch in the title game.
MISLEADING RESULTS ::::::
The final score doesn’t always tell the whole story. We discuss utilizing as many data points as possible to identify the most comprehensive insights, rather than choosing between the two primary sources of post-game win expectancy (PGWE) and combining them. We will take collegefootballdata.com (CFBD) and ESPN (Bill Connelly’s SP+) numbers and find the average. We’ll also be able to analyze where those two data points differ and get an average. Here are the results from week two:
San Jose State fell to Air Force, 26-16, this week. That result is slightly misleading, according to both of our trusted PGWE sources. This is primarily due to three untimely turnovers that led to 16 points for the Falcons.
CFBD PGWE: San Jose State 58%
ESPN PGWE: San Jose State 98%
Georgia Southern appeared to have snuck by the App State Mountaineers by two points, 25-23. That result is a also a bit misleading as both metrics tell us that it should have been more lopsided in favor of the Eagles.
CFBD PGWE: Georgia Southern 98%
ESPN PGWE: Georgia Southern 88%
Kennesaw State beat New Mexico State by a slim field goal margin this week. Both PGWE metrics agree that it should have been worse.
CFBD PGWE: Kennesaw State 94%
ESPN PGWE: Kennesaw State 89%
Oregon’s two-point win over Iowa was documented at the top of this article. We mentioned they snuck out of Iowa City with a close win, and they did. However, the underlying metrics suggest they should not have been so worried about this outcome.
CFBD PGWE: Oregon 80%
ESPN PGWE: Oregon 96%
Oregon State lost to Sam Houston, 21-17 in one of the more surprising results of the week as the Bearkats get their first win of 2025. That said, they probably should not have as both PGWE metrics suggest the Beavers should have found a way to win this one.
CFBD PGWE: Oregon State 61%
ESPN PGWE: Oregon State 96%
Louisiana Tech completely collapsed against Delaware, losing 25-24, despite getting a critical stop on a two-point attempt to tie the game. The Blue Hens recovered an onside kick and then booted a long field goal to stun the Bulldogs. So, it is little surprise this one shows up on here. CFBD has this is a sure win for LA Tech, while ESPN had it as more of a toss-up.
CFBD PGWE: Louisiana Tech 81%
CFBD PGWE: Delaware 55%
It is worth checking in on where the significant differences lie between the two similar yet distinct metrics to determine the validity of a win. Here is this week’s analysis:
Rice 24, UAB 17 ::: CFBD had the Owls as an 87% win probability post-game, while ESPN had the Blazers holding a 79% number.
Houston 30, UCF 27 ::: CFBD shows the Knights as a 73% PGWE number, while ESPN had the Cougars at 81%
Louisiana 42, Texas State 39 ::: CFBD has the Rajin’ Cajuns at a 55% win clip, but ESPN says Texas State should have clearly won this game at a 98% PGWE.
Army 14, Temple 13 ::: CFBD gives the Black Knights a 61% advantage on PGWE; but ESPN says the Owls were a 91% expected winner.
Wisconsin 13, Washington 10 ::: The CFBD number has Wisconsin as a deserved winner at 71%, while ESPN has Washington at 81%.
IN-GAME INJURIES WE ARE TRACKING ::::::
Here is a list of the most impactful injuries we saw during or just prior to kickoff this week. We will be tracking the news on each of these and updating leading up to the next week. On Thursday, we’ll be releasing a comprehensive “Injury Impact Report” that consolidates all these individual ailments into a team-level report.
Note: [ number in parentheses is the player rating - out of 20 ]
Be sure to check out the full injury report and the most recently updated injuries and status reports over at CFBDepth.com:
Miami (FL): DL Rueben Bain Jr. [18.2] -- Went to the locker room for a time in week 11 against Syracuse. He was able to return to the game, but we’re tracking for any lingering impacts. It would be a huge loss to the Miami defensive line.
Navy: QB Blake Horvath [17.7] -- Forced to miss the Notre Dame game week 11 with an injury sustained week ten. Not considered to be a long-term injury.
Washington: RB Jonah Coleman [17.0] -- Injured in the first half of week 11 and did not return. Tracking for potential impacts but no word on severity quite yet.
Washington: WR Denzel Boston [16.9] -- Ruled out with an ankle injury in week 11 game and did not return. He injured it on a punt return and was carted off the field for observation. He was able to return but looked hampered and his may have some lingering impacts.
Ohio State: WR Carnell Tate [16.9] -- Was held out of the week 11 game as a precaution as he deals with a minor injury.
Memphis: QB Brendon Lewis [16.6] -- Injured late in the week 10 game. Played against Tulane after leaving briefly did return but tracking for lingering impacts as the injury woes continue for the Tigers’ star quarterback.
Virginia: QB Chandler Morris [16.0] -- Forced to leave the game week 11 against Wake early and did not return. He was sliding and took a shot to the head/neck area. Head coach Tony Elliott said he was ‘feeling all right’ after the game that he watched the remainder of in street clothes.
Oregon: WR Dakorien Moore [15.4] -- Sustained a non-contact injury in practice leading up to week 11 and was not able to play against Iowa. It is not believed to be season-ending, but remains very questionable for the short-term.
Georgia: OL Drew Bobo [15.0] -- Had his hand ‘cut open’ during the week 11 game and was stitched up by the trainers and returned to the game. Should be okay.
LSU: WR Aaron Anderson [14.8] -- Had to leave the field week 11 with an arm/elbow injury. Returned to game and should be okay going forward, but we are tracking in case anything lingers into the week 12 preparation.
San Jose State: QB Walker Eget [14.7] -- Had to leave the field with an injury in week 11. It was a leg injury that impacted his ability to plant and did hamper him throughout the rest of the game. He ‘should’ be okay, but we’re leaving him on in case it was worse that expected.
Oregon: OL Alex Harkey [14.5] -- Moving around slowly pre-game as he tries to give it a go in week 11 but was unable to do so. He was ‘really close’ to getting in there, so we’ll leave him as ‘questionable’ but closer to ‘probable’ going forward for the Ducks.
Louisiana Tech: QB Blake Baker [14.4] -- Sustained an injury early in the game week 11 and was not able to return. His status going forward is questionable, but it’s not believed to be something that ends his season.
Southern Miss: QB Braylon Braxton [14.3] -- Exited the game with a right knee injury in the first quarter against Arkansas State and while he was able to return to the game, he struggled through it. Backup Landry Lyddy led two touchdown drives while he was out.
Mississippi State: QB Blake Shapen [14.3] -- Heads to the locker room during week 11 game against Georgia. He took a blindside hit to his upper body while attempting a pass. He was cleared to return but was kept out as a precaution.
Texas A&M: OL Ar’maj Reed-Adams [14.2] -- Played just 14 snaps week 11 and is dealing with some sort of ailment. Head coach Mike Elko said he should be “fine” going forward but we’ll keep an eye on it.
Arizona: OL Ty Buchanan [14.1] -- Left the game in the second half of week 11 against Kansas and did not return. Not immediate updates on the injury or his status going forward.
Oregon: TE Kenyon Sadiq [13.9] -- Listed ‘questionable’ for week 11 on the pre-game report. Seen warming up but was not able to go.
Kansas: LB Trey Lathan [13.6] -- Went down after a play and was looked at. Did have a limp as he made his way off the field week 11. Tracking for severity.
Tulane: LB Sam Howard [13.6] -- Listed as ‘Out (Full Game)’ for weeks 8-10. Expected back for week 11 and listed as ‘Questionable’. He played but was re-injured and may continue to miss time.
Rice: RB Daelen Alexander [13.5] -- DNP week 11 despite no injury news. Tracking as we move forward. He has a bye week to heal up before the Owls next game.
Auburn: DL Malik Blocton [13.5] -- Went to the medical tent during week 11 game against Vanderbilt. Tracking for severity but no immediate updates. He has a history of injuries that have hampered him, so this is nothing new.
Washington: OL Drew Azzopardi [13.4] -- Has a lower-leg injury sustained in week 11 and was forced to leave in the first half and he did not return.
California: TE Mason Mini [13.4] -- Was not out there for the first half despite not being listed on the availability report.
West Virginia: RB Diore Hubbard [13.3] -- Had to be helped off the field early in week 11 game against Colorado as the running back injuries continue to pile up for the Mountaineers.
Arizona: LB Max Harris [13.0] -- Left game vs. Kansas with what looked like an awful injury but returned later. Still going to monitor for anything that may linger.
Akron: QB Ben Finley [12.9] -- Shaken up briefly in the week 11 game against UMass. Tracking but not expected to be serious.
New Mexico State: RB Kadarius Calloway [12.9] -- Had to leave the game with injury in week 11 against Kennesaw State.
Washington: OL Landen Hatchett [12.7] -- Injured in week 11 game and did not return.
Alabama: OL Kam Dewberry [12.6] -- Headed to the locker room after an injury sustained in week 11.
Oregon: WR Gary Bryant Jr. [12.5] -- Suffered a lower right leg injury in-game week 11 against Iowa in the first quarter. He was helped off the field by a teammate and did not return.
Jacksonville State: WR Brock Rechsteiner [12.5] -- Forced to leave the game against UTEP with an upper body injury.
Sam Houston: QB Hunter Watson [12.5] -- Knee injury kept him out for week 11 against Oregon State. He’ll be questionable going forward.
UCF: QB Tayven Jackson [12.4] -- Left Houston game with a hamstring injury. Tracking.
Ball State: RB Qua Ashley [12.3] -- Visited the locker room with an injury during the week 11 game against Kent State. Tracking.
Penn State: DT Xavier Gilliam [12.2] -- Went down during week 11 game and needed attention from the medical staff. Tracking for lingering impacts.
LSU: WR Nic Anderson [12.0] -- Carted off the field week 11 against Alabama. Appears to be a rather significant knee injury. It is feared to be season-ending.
Iowa State: TE Gabe Burkle [12.0] -- Injured in week 11 game and had to leave the game in the second quarter.
Mississippi State: S Isaac Smith [11.8] -- Made his way back for week 11 but was re-injured in the second quarter and was seen in a walking boot after the game.
Tulane: DE Gerrod Henderson [11.6] -- Sustained a “significant injury” in the first half of week 11 against Memphis.
Georgia: TE Lawson Luckie [11.6] -- Knocked out of the week 11 game after a targeting call. Tracking for severity.
Georgia Southern: WR Taylor Bradshaw [11.1] -- Injured in the first quarter attempting to make a catch in the end zone during week 11. Walked off on his own power, but we’ll track it.
Liberty: RB Caden Williams [10.9] -- DNP week 11 and may be dealing with a lingering injury that is keeping him out.
That’s our show for week 11 Quick HITS. Thank you for subscribing and following along. More recap week ten recap content coming your way tomorrow and then we’ll move our focus looking ahead to week 12…