Week 12 Quick HITS
We take a look back at week 12 and pull out the biggest storylines, misleading results, trends, and the impact of pre- and in-game injuries.
We’re wrapping up another action-packed week of college football and pulling out some insights that go beyond that line score. In this weekly recap feature, we’ll look at the top on-field storylines that developed from week 12, look at the misleading results coming from those final scores, and a quick look at the notable in-game injuries we saw with updates.
Let’s go…
TOP ON-FIELD STORYLINES ::::::
Texas A&M Completes Comeback to Stay Unbeaten
The No. 3 Texas A&M Aggies pulled off the largest comeback in program history, defeating South Carolina 31–30. After being down 30–3 at halftime, the Aggies scored 28 unanswered points in the second half while shutting out the Gamecocks. Texas A&M’s quarterback Marcel Reed bounced back from a shaky first half to finish with a career-high 439 passing yards and three touchdowns. The defense also made a crucial stop on the final drive to secure the victory. They remain undefeated and leading the SEC standings, as they head down the stretch. Their spot in the SEC title game can be clinched with a win at Texas in the final week — after a tune-up against FCS Samford next week.
Georgia Makes a Texas-Sized Statement
Gunner Stockton and the Dawgs made a statement this Saturday with a 35-10 win over Texas in Athens. The game remained competitive through three quarters, with Texas narrowing the lead to 14-10 late in the third. However, Georgia dominated the fourth quarter, outscoring the Longhorns 21-0 to secure the decisive victory. Stockton accounted for five total touchdowns (four passing and one rushing). He completed 24 of 29 passes for 229 yards, effectively managing the game and spreading the ball to eight different receivers. They succeeded on a surprise onside kick in the fourth quarter to help pull away and keep the Longhorns from mounting any potential comeback. Kirby Smart earns his 100th career win impressively against the Longhorns. Texas, on the other hand, is reeling with its third loss of the season.
Sooners Down Alabama
The Sooners go on the road and beat the Tide on their home turf, 23-21, in a big win. The victory was a defensive showcase for Oklahoma, which forced three turnovers, leading to 17 of its points. A key play came in the first quarter when S Eli Bowen pulled off an 87-yard pick six. The win ended Alabama’s 17-game home winning streak and was the Sooners’ second consecutive road victory against a ranked SEC opponent. Despite Alabama statistically dominating in total yards (406 to 212) and possession time, those untimely turnovers did them in. Oklahoma’s defense, which held Alabama scoreless in the first and fourth quarters, sealed the win with a fourth-down stop late in the game. It’s the first loss in conference for Alabama, and they remain in a good position to qualify for the SEC Championship game, assuming a win in the Iron Bowl in the final week. That’s never a simple task, no matter how down the Tigers are in 2025. For Oklahoma, this significantly improves their chances of getting into the College Football Playoff field as an at-large team.
Top individual performances:
Mizzou RB Ahmad Hardy took 25 carries for 300 yards and three touchdowns against Mississippi State.
Ole Miss RB Kewan Lacy (former Mizzou) turned his 28 carries into 224 yards and three touchdowns against Florida.
Oregon QB Dante Moore completed 90% of his attempts (27-for-30) against Minnesota, including 306 yards and two touchdown throws.
North Texas RB Caleb Hawkins torched UAB to the tune of 27 carries for 189 yards and FIVE touchdowns.
Indiana QB Fernando Mendoza continues his bid for the Heisman, going 22-for-24 for 299 yards and four more touchdown tosses against Wisconsin.
Oklahoma LB Kip Lewis may not have had amazing stats, but he was a big impact in that win over Alabama. He recorded seven tackles and two sacks, but was all over the field, disrupting things.
Penn State DL Dani Dennis-Sutton had two sacks and a blocked punt against Michigan State, leading the Nittany Lions to the win over Michigan State.
MISLEADING RESULTS ::::::
The final score doesn’t always tell the whole story. We discuss utilizing as many data points as possible to identify the most comprehensive insights, rather than choosing between the two primary sources of post-game win expectancy (PGWE) and combining them. We will take collegefootballdata.com (CFBD) and ESPN (Bill Connelly’s SP+) numbers and find the average. We’ll also be able to analyze where those two data points differ and get an average.
New Mexico held on to beat Colorado State by just three points, 20-17. The PGWE numbers agree that this could have been a more decisive win for the Lobos.
CFBD PGWE: New Mexico 93%
ESPN PGWE: Colorado State 87%
Much is made of that crazy Texas A&M-South Carolina game and it was just that…crazy. The comeback win for A&M is justified by the PGWE numbers as both agree they deserved to win this game with some fluke explosive plays from the Gamecocks as they built that first half lead.
CFBD PGWE: Texas A&M 79%
ESPN PGWE: Texas A&M 90%
East Carolina beat Memphis 31-27 this week as the Tigers’ fall from grace continues. There was some worry about a letdown after the loss to Tulane. More damning than the loss itself is that the PGWE says it should not have been as close as the final score indicates.
CFBD PGWE: East Carolina 86%
ESPN PGWE: East Carolina 94%
Iowa put up a fight in Southern California that ended in a 26-21 loss to USC. However, both metrics agree that not only did they hang in there, they really could/should have won that game.
CFBD PGWE: Iowa 88%
ESPN PGWE: Iowa 55%
Clemson beat Louisville on Friday night this week, sneaking out a 20-19 win. However, the PGWE numbers suggest that it really should have gone the other way with the Cardinals ‘earning’ a win.
CFBD PGWE: Louisville 72%
ESPN PGWE: Louisville 87%
It’s not an overwhelming number, but worth mentioning that in LSU’s 23-22 win over Arkansas, the numbers suggest that while still within ‘toss-up’ range, both agreed that the advantage was actually on the side of the Razorbacks post-game.
CFBD PGWE: Arkansas 61%
CFBD PGWE: Arkansas 64%
The suddenly hot Sam Houston Bearkats beat Delaware in week 12 by three points, 26-23. The PGWE numbers suggest that this win (again) went on the wrong side of the ledger.
CFBD PGWE: Delaware 74%
CFBD PGWE: Delaware 69%
It is worth examining the significant differences between the two similar yet distinct metrics to determine the validity of a win. Here is this week’s analysis:
The two sources did not agree on who deserved to win that Oklahoma-Alabama showdown in Tuscaloosa with CFBD giving the Sooners a 78% win probability and ESPN giving it to the Tide at 95%.
Navy outgunned USF in a shootout this week. CFBD shows us that the win was well-deserved for the Midshipmen. However, ESPN disagrees, giving the Bulls a 63% post-game win rate.
UNLV beat Utah State 29-26 this week. Again, CFBD confirmed the win with a 60% rate against the Rebels. However, ESPN disagrees, putting a bit more emphasis on the 84% tag on the other side of the Aggies.
CFBD shows us that West Virginia should have found a way to upset Arizona State in week 12, despite the two-point loss. They had them at an 80% win expectancy. However, ESPN had it much closer to that ‘toss-up’ range, putting the Sun Devils at 55%.
IN-GAME INJURIES WE ARE TRACKING ::::::
Here is a list of the most impactful injuries we saw during or just prior to kickoff this week. We will be tracking the news on each of these and updating leading up to the next week. On Thursday, we’ll be releasing a comprehensive “Injury Impact Report” that consolidates all these individual ailments into a team-level report.
Note: [ number in parentheses is the player rating - out of 20 ]
Be sure to check out the full injury report and the most recently updated injuries and status reports over at CFBDepth.com:
Ohio State: WR Jeremiah Smith [18.0] -- Listed ‘questionable’ for week 12. He played the first half and then was sidelined after limping off at halftime. He was held out the remainder as a precaution and is said to be “good to go” against Rutgers next week. That said, a nagging issue could flare again and cost the Buckeyes their star offensive weapon.
Navy: QB Blake Horvath [17.7] -- Forced to leave the week 12 game against USF with a leg injury. He did briefly return to the field but ultimately gave way to Braxton Woodson. His injury woes continue as this is a new ailment from what kept him out the week prior against Notre Dame.
Indiana: QB Fernando Mendoza [17.3] -- Had a brief injury scare after getting landed on by three defenders in week 12 against Wisconsin. The Sunday updates are that it was not a big deal and the Heisman favorite should be fine.
Oregon State: ILB Aiden Sullivan [17.1] -- Walked back to the locker room after a foot injury sustained week 12 against Tulsa. He has a bye week to rest up before the Washington State game in week 14.
Michigan: RB Jordan Marshall [16.7] -- Injured his shoulder after a 25-yard run week 12 against Northwestern. Head coach Sherrone Moore updated that it is not serious and he’s “in a good place” — but did stop short of saying he’ll be back to 100% going forward.
Georgia: ILB CJ Allen [16.4] -- Forced to leave the week 12 game with a left knee injury. Said he felt ‘good’ after the game, but it will require an MRI. We await the results from that.
Indiana: DL Mikail Kamara [16.1] -- Left the week 12 game against Wisconsin with an injury after the first possession. He’s dealing with a ‘lingering’ shoulder/nerve stinger issue. He will get some rest this week with the bye and prepare for the finale against Purdue.
Florida State: WR Duce Robinson [15.5] -- Went to the injury tent during week 12 and was in pain. Looked to be an arm/shoulder injury but nothing came out post-game that suggests he will miss any time.
Utah: QB Devon Dampier [15.5] -- Still a little beat up and did leave the week 12 game for a period of time. Should be okay going forward. He plays through injuries and is considered a “warrior” by his head coach. It’s worth monitoring though as his frame can only take so much damage before eventually having to shut it down.
Northwestern: WR Griffin Wilde [15.4] -- Injured on a catch near the end of the third quarter in the week 12 game against Michigan that forced a trip to the medical tent. Nothing came out post-game, but we’re keeping an eye on it.
Pittsburgh: RB Desmond Reid [15.2] -- Went down and was seen grabbing his ankle. Had to be carried off the field week 12 against Notre Dame. It did not look good and the star running back just can’t seem to stay healthy and on the field for the Panthers.
Louisville: DB D’Angelo Hutchinson [14.8] -- Left the game in 2Q vs Clemson with apparent shoulder injury. Did return later in the game and should be okay going forward, but we’re tracking in case anything lingers.
Alabama: WR Germie Bernard [14.6] -- Tracking after an in-game injury week 12 against OU forced him to the medical tent and time on the exercise bike. He did return to the game and should be okay going forward.
San Diego State: WR Jordan Napier [14.6] -- Left the game late in the first half with an lower left leg injury. He was seen later with a brace on his leg, which is not a great sign. The star wide out and return man looks very questionable going forward.
Arizona State: DB Rodney Bimage Jr. [14.5] -- Went down on a tackle in week 12 against WVU. Stayed down for a while but said to be doing ‘well’ following the scare.
Texas A&M: RB Rueben Owens II [14.4] -- Injured in week 12 game against South Carolina. Described as ‘not a massive thing,’ but it may linger in the short-term.
Oklahoma: RB Xavier Robinson [14.3] -- Needed a trip to the injury tent week 12 with what appeared to be a knee injury. He did return to the game but we are tracking for lingering impacts.
Miami (OH): QB Dequan Finn [14.3] -- Chuck Martin announced that Finn has left the team to prepare for the NFL Draft. There is likely more to this story but we’ll stick to the news that he is no longer with the program.
Kansas State: WR Jayce Brown [14.2] -- Injured late in the first half and was done for the day. Seen on the sidelines with his left arm in a sling. Likely done for the season.
Illinois: RB Aidan Laughery [14.1] -- Was not listed on the injury report but is dealing with something as he did not record any carries in week 12.
Indiana: OL Kahlil Benson [14.0] -- Dealing with a lingering lower body injury that slowed him in the week 12 game against Wisconsin, playing just half snaps.
Appalachian State: QB AJ Swann [14.0] -- Left the field with a lower-body injury and did not return to the game.
Wyoming: OL Braylon Jenkins [13.9] -- Dealing with a foot injury that kept him out week 12. Questionable going forward.
Virginia: LB Kam Robinson [13.8] -- Suffered an injury to a nerve in his shoulder/arm area and was shut down. X-rays were clean but he was unable to return. Tracking for severity.
Northwestern: DL Aidan Hubbard [13.6] -- Lower body injury sustained in week 12 against Michigan. Needed attention and then went to the sideline. Did not return.
Kennesaw State: DB Caleb Offord [13.5] -- Was stretchered off the field in the fourth quarter of week 12. He went to the hospital for a check-up. Awaiting more updates.
Clemson: WR T.J. Moore [13.5] -- Left the game in the first quarter with an apparent shoulder injury, but was able to return. Leaving on to track any lingering impacts.
Louisville: WR Caullin Lacy [13.5] -- Was sandwiched on a catch during week 12 against Clemson. Had a noticeable limp after going down for a bit.
Arizona: LB Myron Robinson [13.4] -- Injured in the week 12 game against Cincinnati, he tried to limp off but ultimately went down.
Sam Houston: K/P Christian Pavon [13.4] -- Hit on an attempted field goal in week 12 and was on the ground for a time.
Florida State: OL Micah Pettus [13.3] -- Seen grabbing at his right shoudler and took a trip to the injury tent in week 12 against Virginia Tech.
Clemson: OL Brayden Jacobs [13.3] -- Mentioned to have an injury by coach Swinney after the week 12 game. He injured it while celebrating the win. He will miss the rest of the year.
Tennessee: DB Boo Carter [13.1] -- Has an injury but was also dismissed from the team following a no-show to the week 12 game against NM State. Once a very highly touted safety and special teams return man, Carter will move on to another program.
South Carolina: WR Nyck Harbor [12.9] -- Sustained a chest injury in the fourth quarter of week 12 against A&M. Needed a trip to the hospital to get checked out. He is believed to be okay, but he may miss time.
Troy: QB Tucker Kilcrease [12.9] -- Sustained what appeared to be a shoulder injury in the week 12 game against ODU.
Wisconsin: RB Gideon Ituka [12.6] -- Suffered a scary neck injury that forced a trip to the hospital in the week 12. He was released and flew home with the team. Tracking for potential longer-term impacts.
Washington: WR Raiden Vines-Bright [12.4] -- Was put on a stretcher and into an ambulance during the week 12 game. Awaiting more information.
Coastal Carolina: QB Samari Collier [12.4] -- Left the game with an injury and was replaced by Tad Hudson. Was seen on crutches and with ice on his right knee.
Northwestern: DB Garner Wallace [12.3] -- Went down on the field for a time during week 12 against Michigan. Tracking for severity.
Navy: DT Kendall Whiteside [12.3] -- Had to be helped off the field after injury in week 12 game.
Miami (FL): WR Joshua Moore [12.2] -- Went down with an injury after a catch week 12. Tracking for severity.
Clemson: OL Walker Parks [12.2] -- Will miss the remainder of the 2025 season after an ankle injury sustained in week 12 against Louisville.
New Mexico State: DL Cole Schnettgoecke [11.7] -- Walked off the field under his own power during week 12 game. Tracking for lingering impacts.
UCLA: OL Reuben Unije [11.4] -- Was in and out of the medical tent at various points in week 12 against Ohio State. Leaving as questionable until we get updates.
Washington State: S Cale Reeder [11.4] -- DNP week 12 with an undisclosed injury of some sort. We’re tracking for updates.
New Mexico State: WR PJ Johnson III [11.3] -- Said to have been injured in the week 12 game against Tennessee. No exact word on severity at this point.
USC: DT Keeshawn Silver [11.2] -- Walked off the field with an injury in week 12 against Iowa. Tracking.
That’s our show for week 12 Quick HITS. Thank you for subscribing and following along. More recap week ten recap content coming your way tomorrow and then we’ll move our focus looking ahead to week 13…
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