Week 13 Quick HITS
We take a look back at week 13 and pull out the biggest storylines, misleading results, trends, and the impact of pre- and in-game injuries.
We’re wrapping up another action-packed week of college football and pulling out some insights that go beyond that line score. In this weekly recap feature, we’ll look at the top on-field storylines that developed from week 13, look at the misleading results coming from those final scores, and a quick look at the notable in-game injuries we saw with updates.
Let’s go…
TOP ON-FIELD STORYLINES ::::::
Oregon Statement and USC Down
The Ducks strengthened their College Football Playoff resume with a convincing 42–27 win over USC, showcasing their dominance in the new Big Ten rivalry. The Ducks controlled the game, capitalized on a struggling USC defense and a key punt return, and sealed the victory late in the fourth quarter. For USC, the loss effectively ends its playoff hopes and highlights its deficiencies against top-tier opponents, particularly its inability to control the line of scrimmage. Oregon’s strong performance, especially in front of its home crowd, confirms its status as a national title contender heading into its regular-season finale against Washington.
#ACChaos
The ACC title picture was thrown into chaos after Georgia Tech suffered a 42–28 loss to Pittsburgh, squandering a chance to secure a conference championship game berth. The Yellow Jackets’ defensive issues were exposed, leading to a loss that creates a three-way tie atop the ACC standings with Virginia, Pitt, and SMU all sharing a 6-1 conference record. The tiebreaker scenarios are all in play as we enter the final week to determine who will get into that all-important conference championship game. If SMU beats Cal in their finale and Virginia handles business against Virginia Tech, that’s the Championship matchup. However, what has gone to plan at the conference so far this year? If either falters, many other tie-breaker scenarios come into play, including potentially giving Miami a shot to enter the fray if they get a win over Pitt in week 14.
Heisman Race Tightens
The Heisman Trophy race gained new life in Week 13 with impressive performances from several players. Vanderbilt quarterback Diego Pavia had a record-breaking game, accumulating over 500 total yards and six touchdowns to keep his team in the playoff hunt and make a late push for a trip to New York. Meanwhile, Notre Dame running back Jeremiyah Love was great against Syracuse, rushing for 171 yards and three scores on just eight carries. Here are the top five as it stands:
QB Fernando Mendoza - Indiana (-105 to -115)
QB Julian Sayin - Ohio State (+275 to +400)
RB Jeremiyah Love - Notre Dame (+450 to +500)
QB Diego Pavia - Vanderbilt (+600)
QB Marcel Reed - Texas A&M (+1000 to +1100)
Top individual performances:
QB Diego Pavia (Vanderbilt) ::: 33-for-39 passing for a school-record 484 yards, five touchdowns, to go along with a rushing touchdown against Kentucky.
RB Jeremiyah Love (Notre Dame) ::: Rushed for 171 yards and three touchdowns on just eight carries in a blowout win over Syracuse.
RB Joe Jackson (Kansas State) ::: Rushed for a school-record 293 yards and three touchdowns on 24 carries against Utah.
QB Arch Manning (Texas) ::: Threw for 389 yards and four TDs, plus had a rushing and a receiving touchdown in a win over Arkansas.
QB Drew Mestemaker (North Texas) ::: Was nearly perfect in a win against Rice, completing 19 of 23 passes for 469 yards, three TDs, and a rushing score.
WR Wyatt Young (North Texas) ::: Caught eight passes for 295 yards and two scores in the Mean Green’s win over Rice, setting a new American Conference record for receiving yards.
QB Caden Veltkamp (FAU) ::: Threw for 494 yards and 2 TDs in a narrow 48-45 loss to UConn.
LB Jordan Kwiatkowski (Central Michigan) ::: Recorded 14 tackles, 4.5 tackles for loss, a sack, and a forced fumble in a win over Kent State.
LB Darryl Peterson (Wisconsin) ::: Logged six tackles, three sacks, a forced fumble, and two pass breakups in a win over Illinois.
S Jalen Stroman (Notre Dame) ::: Had eight tackles, two tackles for loss, and a pick-six in Notre Dame’s win against Syracuse.
MISLEADING RESULTS ::::::
The final score doesn’t always tell the whole story. We discuss utilizing as many data points as possible to identify the most comprehensive insights, rather than choosing between the two primary sources of post-game win expectancy (PGWE) and combining them. We will take collegefootballdata.com (CFBD) and ESPN (Bill Connelly’s SP+) numbers and find the average. We’ll also be able to analyze where those two data points differ and get an average.
Duke beat North Carolina 32-25 this week, but both metrics agree that they may not have deserved that outcome. Penalties and inability to stop the Blue Devils on fourth down are a part of this game, but their second-half surge and overall performance metrics tell us the Tar Heels deserved better.
CFBD PGWE: North Carolina 70%
ESPN PGWE: North Carolina 78%
Oklahoma State put up a fight against UCF this week, only losing by three points, 17-14. However, the PGWE numbers suggest that the final score is misleading, and there was never a doubt for the Knights.
CFBD PGWE: UCF 100%
ESPN PGWE: UCF 97%
Tulsa shocked Army this week in a thrilling 26-25 win. How “real” was it, you ask? It was well-deserved, according to both of our sources for PGWE information, and indicates it could have been worse for the Black Knights.
CFBD PGWE: Tulsa 86%
ESPN PGWE: Tulsa 99%
Appalachian State pulled it off against Marshall this week, winning 26-24. However, both sources suggest the wrong team won this football game.
CFBD PGWE: Marshall 78%
ESPN PGWE: Marshall 86%
Southern Miss came back on South Alabama to make this one look respectable, posting a final score of 42-35. However, the PGWE suggests that the Jaguars were the dominant team in this one by more than what that final score suggests.
CFBD PGWE: South Alabama 100%
ESPN PGWE: South Alabama 92%
Utah needed a furious comeback in a shootout against Kansas State this week, eventually winning the game 51-47. However, the Utes did not deserve that fate according to both of our PGWE numbers.
CFBD PGWE: K-State 71%
CFBD PGWE: K-State 75%
It is worth examining the significant differences between the two similar yet distinct metrics to determine the validity of a win. Here is this week’s analysis:
Kennesaw State and Missouri State played a thriller this week in Georgia. The Owls eventually won it late and the two metrics disagree on who should have exited with another CUSA win. CFBD had Kennesaw State at a 93% PGWE number and ESPN had Missouri State at 80%.
Louisiana Tech beat Liberty 34-28 in week 13. CFBD suggests that was a legitimate result, with the Bulldogs at 73% PGWE. However, ESPN disagrees, posting the Flames at 75%.
IN-GAME INJURIES WE ARE TRACKING ::::::
Here is a list of the most impactful injuries we saw during or just prior to kickoff this week. We will be tracking the news on each of these and updating leading up to the next week. On Thursday, we’ll be releasing a comprehensive “Injury Impact Report” that consolidates all these individual ailments into a team-level report.
Note: [ number in parentheses is the player rating - out of 20 ]
Be sure to check out the full injury report and the most recently updated injuries and status reports over at CFBDepth.com:
Wisconsin: LB Mason Posa [17.5] -- Injured in-game week 13 and needed a trip to the injury tent. We only know that it was an upper-body injury and he did not return. Awaiting more information.
Notre Dame: LB Kyngstonn Viliamu-Asa [17.2] -- Injured in-game week 13 and the PR team updated us that a left knee injury will cost him the rest of the season. A big loss for the Notre Dame second-level defense.
LSU: CB Mansoor Delane [17.1] -- DNP week 13 as a precaution as he’s been playing through a core injury much of the season. He needs a little rest but likely plays again.
Utah: OL Spencer Fano [16.7] -- Helped off the field after an injury in week 13. He was able to return to the game, but we’re tracking for potential lingering impacts.
Miami (FL): DB Jakobe Thomas [16.5] -- Appears to have sustained a hand/arm injury in week 13 game against VA Tech. Post-game sentiments say they may have dodged a bullet.
Illinois: WR Hank Beatty [16.4] -- Went down and was being looked at by trainers. He walked under his own power and returned to the game. Likely nothing to see here.
Georgia State: QB Cameran Brown [15.5] -- Exited the week 13 game with an injury and did not return to action. He was not cleared to play in the second half and we’re tracking. Christian Veilleux entered the game over TJ Finley.
Iowa: DB TJ Hall [15.3] -- Added as ‘out’ on the week 13 availability report pre-game and is questionable moving forward.
Virginia Tech: QB Kyron Drones [15.3] -- Took a shot to the head in-game week 13 and exited. It was late in the fourth quarter so we aren’t sure if he would have returned if given an opportunity. Tracking.
Georgia: RB Chauncey Bowens [15.2] -- Considered “day-to-day” after needing to come off the field in week 12. Dressed and warmed up, but did not play as a precaution.
Kansas: QB Jalon Daniels [15.2] -- Took a big shot that sent him airborne and needed to be looked at by trainers early in week 13. He did return to the game later on so it is not thought to be serious.
Auburn: DE Keldric Faulk [15.1] -- Needed a trip to the injury tent in week 13 against Mercer. No updates following the game.
Georgia State: WR Ted Hurst [15.1] -- Sustained an injury in practice leading up to week 13 which kept him out.
Oregon: OL Iapani Laloulu [14.9] -- Injured his left foot or ankle early in the week 13 game against USC and was unable to return. Charlie Pickard came in for him.
Appalachian State: RB Rashod Dubinion [14.7] -- Left the week 13 game early with an injury. Tracking for severity.
Clemson: DE Jahiem Lawson [14.7] -- Went down in week 13 game and exited the field without putting weight on his right leg. Not expected to be serious.
Michigan State: RB Makhi Frazier [14.6] -- Ruled out for week 13 pre-game somewhat unexpectedly.
Colorado: S Tawfiq Byard [14.6] -- Went down with an injury in week 13 game. Specifics unknown. Tracking.
Iowa State: RB Carson Hansen [14.6] -- Injury woes continue as he hit the deck in week 13 and it looks like another painful lower body injury.
Oregon: DB Aaron Flowers [13.8] -- Went down in-game week 13 but was able to return and should be just fine going foward.
LSU: OL Braelin Moore [13.8] -- Went to the locker room with an ankle injury and did not return to the week 13 game against WKU.
San Jose State: QB Walker Eget [13.7] -- Sustained a leg injury early in the week 13 loss to San Diego State. The initial reaction from head coach Ken Niumatalolo is that is ‘doesn’t look good.’
Oklahoma: RB Tory Blaylock [13.7] -- Did not receive a carry week 13 against Missouri as a nagging shoulder injury kept him sidelined.
Wyoming: RB Samuel “Tote” Harris [13.7] -- Injured in-game week 13 and did not return to action.
Oregon: OL Alex Harkey [13.6] -- Came up ‘gimpy’ after a play and powered through it, but given recent injury history, we’re tracking.
UTEP: RB Ashten Emory [13.4] -- Went down on a play in the fourth quarter of the week 13 game. Appeared to be a knee injury.
Washington State: RB Leo Pulalasi [13.3] -- Got dinged up in week 13 and that limited his involvement.
Hawaii: LB Jamih Otis [13.2] -- Injured in-game week 13. Was ruled out for the rest of the game.
Hawaii: DB Virdel Edwards II [13.1] -- Injured in-game week 13. Was ruled out for the rest of the game.
Miami (FL): LB Wesley Bissainthe [13.1] -- Went down early in the week 13 game against Virginia Tech. Returned to the game and should be okay going forward, though he has had a few lingering injuries this season.
Georgia Tech: DB Jy Gilmore [13.0] -- Went down with what appeared to be a serious leg/ankle injury in-game week 13 against Pitt.
Kentucky: QB Cutter Boley [13.0] -- Took a trip to the injury tent in week 13 but returned to the game and should be okay going forward.
Kansas: DL Gage Keys [12.9] -- Injured in-game week 13 against Iowa State early. Tracking.
Washington State: OL Brock Dieu [12.8] -- Was re-injured in the week 13 game and there is no update immediately following the game. Seen on crutches and a walking boot.
Ohio State: CB Lorenzo Styles Jr. [12.7] -- Was trucked on a play early in week 13 and needed attention. Was able to walk off on his own power but appears to have a shoulder ailment that may impact him going forward.
USC: OL Kilian O’Connor [12.4] -- Injured in-game week 13 against Oregon. Not able to return with a left knee injury.
Boise State: WR Latrell Caples [12.0] -- Sustained some sort of injury in week 13 that required a trip to the injury tent. Tracking.
Rutgers: LB Abram Wright [11.7] -- Down on the field for a good couple of minutes in the week 13 game. Walked slowly to the tent.
Alabama: OL Joseph Ionata [11.4] -- Sustained some sort of injury in week 13 and had to leave the game.
Washington State: S Cale Reeder [11.4] -- DNP week 12 with an undisclosed injury of some sort. Was expected back for week 13 but was unable to go.
Massachusetts: QB AJ Hairston [11.3] -- Forced to leave the week 13 game just two minutes in after taking a shot to the shoulder.
Washington State: DT Kaden Beatty [11.1] -- Giving it a go week 13 after missing games since last September.
Hawaii: WR Nick Cenacle [10.4] -- Listed ‘questionable’ for week 13 against UNLV. Played, but was re-injured in-game.
Michigan: TE/FB Max Bredeson [9.7] -- Injured in the week 13 game and seen on the sidelines with his right leg in a boot and on crutches.
That’s our show for week 13 Quick HITS. Thank you for subscribing and following along. More recap week ten recap content coming your way tomorrow and then we’ll move our focus looking ahead to week 14.
Thank you.