Week 13: Saturday Model Plays
Let's check in on the (CFBDm) Model to check week 12 results and see what it likes for this full slate of Saturday action as we near the end of our first full season.
Disclaimer: We start with this. Don’t bet your mortgage on any of these plays (yet). This Model is in its infancy and we need to continue to collect data and converse with other smart people (we have something in the works) to build it the proper way. The one thing we do know, this Model has access to data and metrics that others do not. Now, if we can get that algorithm and weights down - we may have something.
So, how did it go in week 12, you ask? Overall, pretty much a wash.
What’s interesting is that we ended up +10 UNITS on the Power 4 vs. Power 4 games and -10 UNITS on the Group of 5 vs. Group of 5 matchups. This trend was different in earlier iterations of the Model, so we really can’t take too much from it.
Highest performing sub-group(s): P4 vs P4 Dogs and OVERS (+5 UNITS each)
Lowest performing sub-group: G5 vs. G5 Favorites (-5 UNITS)
If you want to see the blow-by-blow of week 12, help yourself »
Here is an overall look at the last few weeks overall performance:
Week 10: 49-49-0 // -6 UNITS
Week 11: 53-44-1 // +14 UNITS
Week 12: 46-48-0 // +0 UNITS
Overall: 148-141-1 (51.2%) // +8 UNITS
We made a slight tweak/adjustment to bring down the impacts of some of the extra-curricular weights (Line Movement; Trench Impact and Explosive plays) to see if that brings us closer to a winning week in week 13.
Speaking of week 13…let’s jump in!
|||||| 4-UNIT PLAYS
There are two 4-unit play this week and both are teams that the Model really likes, but has not come through much (if at all). But, remember, this Model does not hold grudges or really have any feelings whatsoever. So, even if it pains me to write it — it’s what the Model says:
San Diego State +4.5 at Utah State
I’ll do my best to justify this one. Outside of a pair of 3-points wins over not great teams in Hawaii and Wyoming, the Aztecs haven’t had much to celebrate in Sean Lewis’ first year. His reputation as an offensive mastermind is quickly fading after being demoted at Colorado and now this team has reached the 30 point plateau just once — against Texas A&M-Commerce in week one. The Model still sees a big talent advantage here for the Aztecs and that is the driving force for this algorithm. That is to say, Utah State is not very good at all - despite a throttling over Hawai’i a week ago - which is heavily influencing this spread. The biggest edge is actually in the Aztecs running game. The offensive line (ranked 68th) and in particular the run blocking (55th) should be able to manhandle the Aggies front seven (123rd) and Marquez Cooper, their talented bellcow back (no other running backs even sniff the ball), should lead them to victory…
Take a look at the full ‘Game Card’ for more breakdowns of this one:
Air Force (+3.5) at Nevada
The Falcons had a really rough start to the season and the Model (like SDSU) has liked them because there is talent there. It finally seemed to click a bit, coinciding with some health the last two weeks in wins over Fresno State and Oregon State. That followed a seven-game losing streak. What changed? Well, we mentioned the first one. Injuries. They are finally healthy. They also seem to have settled on a quarterback, Quentin Hayes, who is improving each week, still just a sophomore and is gaining experience. Also, trusting Dylan Carson to handle the load as the lead back has begun to pay off. Their opponent, the Wolfpack started with a bit of flair in a narrow loss to SMU and a win over Troy. They came back down to earth a bit since and are now on a four-game losing streak, however, in our proprietary dWIN (deserved Wins) metric, Nevada is the unluckiest team and deserves a whole 3.2 more wins than they have! In post-game win expectancy alone they should have closer to six wins. The Model doesn’t fully buy-in due to the injury impacts they have currently and the level of talent. The Falcons roll…
|||||| 3-UNIT PLAYS
SMU (-10.5) at Virginia
Simply put, this Mustangs team is simply more talented than the Cavaliers and that 10.5 number just isn’t enough according to the Model. They are better on both sides of the ball and that includes a pretty significant advantage in the trenches. Throw in some injury concerns for the Cavaliers, including some new injuries that may impact this outcome, the Model projects a run away for the ‘Stangs as they continue their potential run towards a CFP appearance. In order to do that, they must win the Conference title. In order to do that, they must win this game.
Iowa (-4.5) at Maryland
All the bad news coming out around the Hawkeyes, including starting an inexperienced quarterback (Jackson Stratton) and key defensive player, CB Jermari Harris to ‘opt out’ to prepare for the NFL Draft, has this line where it is. And it’s not right. According to the Model, Iowa is significantly better than Maryland. They should be able to control the ball on the ground with a major advantage on the offensive line (10th) compared to the Terps’ front seven (118th) and dominate on defense, leading to an easy 32-14 win and cover.
UConn at Syracuse OVER 54.5
Overs have been more popular as the season has rolled on and with some weather concerns popping up in certain areas, we certainly won’t have that in the friendly confines of the JMA Wireless Dome. The conditions will be perfect for a track meet between two teams that run faster paced offenses and have a knack for big chunk plays. The Huskies are 47th in our overall explosive play rating. Syracuse is middle-of-the-pack in that particular metric, but they are the ones running the faster pace and lean more on the arm of Kyle McCord to keep the chains moving. It will be helpful is UConn QB Nick Evers plays and at last check he was still questionable heading in. Regardless, the Model sees this one getting up there…
Georgia (-42.5) vs. UMass
The Dawgs need to make a statement and while that number is really high and UMass has shown signs of life recently, this will be a relentless attack and the Model (no feelings, remember) sees no path to the Minutemen even putting up a single point. We will make manual adjustments when there are certain motivations that need to be taken into account (or flu bugs), but it’s rare. This one doesn’t need it. Dawgs roll in a very big way…
More 3-UNIT plays:
Texas Tech at Oklahoma State OVER 65.5
Army (+14.5) vs. Notre Dame
Washington State at Oregon State OVER 56.5
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