Week Eight Quick HITS
We take a look back at week eight and pull out the misleading results, trends, and the impact of pre- and in-game injuries.
We have made it through week eight, and we continue to take in all of the data and learn who all of these teams really are. We think. It is undoubtedly the parity age of college football, and it is a lot of fun to watch everything unfold. The margins are thin, and that’s why knowing every potential data point or injury that could impact an outcome is more important than ever.
Week eight brought us two more coach firings — including that of Florida head man Billy Napier. This decision was obviously made before their eventual two-point win this week against Mississippi State, and was only confirmation that it was time. Despite the ugly win, Napier was booed off the field. He finishes his tenure with a record of 22-23.
Jay Norvell was let go by Colorado State after a 31-19 loss to Hawaii at home this week. The Rams had some high expectations for this season as they prepare to enter the Pac-12 conference next year. His reputation as an offensive guru was put in doubt after major struggles on that side of the ball, even giving up play-calling responsibilities this season.
Other top storylines coming out of week eight include:
Vanderbilt remains to rise the ranks with a signature home win over LSU in Nashville.
Miami falls on Friday night to Louisville, Ole Miss blows a lead against Georgia, and Texas Tech loses at Arizona State without their top quarterback, Behren Morton. Memphis was shocked by a UAB team that had just dismissed its head coach a week prior. That leaves us with just five unbeaten teams in FBS football: Ohio State (#1), Indiana (#3), Texas A&M (#4), Georgia Tech (#12), BYU (#15), and Navy (unranked).
MISLEADING RESULTS ::::::
The final score doesn’t always tell the whole story. We discuss utilizing as many data points as possible to identify the most comprehensive insights, rather than choosing between the two primary sources of post-game win expectancy (PGWE) and combining them. We will take collegefootballdata.com (CFBD) and ESPN (Bill Connelly’s SP+) numbers and find the average. We’ll also be able to analyze where those two data points differ and get an average. Here are the results from week two:
The TCU-Baylor game finished up 42-36 in favor of the Horned Frogs, a close-looking six-point margin. However, the two PGWE metrics suggest this should not have been this close. TCU’s win was never really in doubt.
CFBD PGWE: TCU 97%
ESPN PGWE: TCU 100%
Similarly, the one-point win for Iowa over the reeling Nittany Lions of Penn State was also misleading. Both metrics suggest the Hawkeyes should have really beaten them by a wider margin, partially due to a blocked field goal returned for a touchdown by the Lions, which changed the complexion of this game.
CFBD PGWE: Iowa 73%
ESPN PGWE: Iowa 89%
Notre Dame handled the USC Trojans at home by ten points, winning 34-24. This result appears close, but it really should not have been. The Irish outgained the Trojans 306-68 on the ground alone. They also held a success rate advantage: 49% to 33% throughout the game.
CFBD PGWE:
ESPN PGWE:
More warning signs for Texas as the Longhorns snuck out of Lexington with a narrow 16-13 win over Kentucky. That score alone is worth some grumbles from fans. It’s even more alarming when you look at the PGWE numbers that suggest they really should have lost this game.
CFBD PGWE: Kentucky 67%
ESPN PGWE: Kentucky 84%
This is an interesting one as the Tulane Green Wave needed late scores to even things and eventually beat Army, 24-17. Often, the team coming back late is on the other side of the PGWE metrics. Not this time. Tulane held a 56% success rate (compared to Army’s 40%) in this one. They couldn’t get off the field as the Black Knights had 39 minutes of time of possession.
CFBD PGWE: Tulane 71%
ESPN PGWE: Tulane 100%
Jay Norvell’s final game as head coach at Colorado State finished as a 12-point loss to Hawaii. PGEW paints an uglier picture and likely played a role as the final straw for the administration to pull the plug on this regime.
CFBD PGWE: Hawaii 95%
ESPN PGWE: Hawaii 96%
Another result that gives the impression that a game was closer than it really was comes from the MAC as Miami (OH) utterly dominated Eastern Michigan this week. The two-touchdown difference at 44-30 should have been worse for the Eagles.
CFBD PGWE: Miami (OH) 100%
ESPN PGWE: Miami (OH) 99%
If you thought the UAB shocking win over Memphis was all luck — think again. PGWE confirms Alex Mortensen’s first win as an (interim) head coach was well-deserved, according to both of our sources of PGWE.
CFBD PGWE: UAB 98%
ESPN PGWE: UAB 72%
It’s always interesting to see where the most significant differences lie between the two similar yet distinct metrics to determine the validity of a win. Here is this week’s analysis:
UCLA stays hot, beating Maryland 20-17 this weekend. CFBD says that the Terps could/should have pulled this one off at a 61% PGEW number. ESPN thinks it was all Bruins at 91%.
UTEP beat Sam Houston to keep them winless in the 2025 season. However, the CFBD number tells us it should have been a closer result, more of a toss-up with Sam Houston actually holding a 51% number. ESPN disagrees, giving the Bearkats no chance with a 0.1% PGWE.
In our third example of CFBD giving more of a benefit of the doubt to teams who lost, the Clemson Tigers’ loss to SMU had them at a 58% PGWE number. ESPN says, “not so fast” and aligns much closer to the final score of 35-24 in favor of the Mustangs.
IN-GAME INJURIES WE ARE TRACKING ::::::
Here is a list of the most impactful injuries we saw during or just prior to kickoff this week. We will be tracking the news on each of these and updating leading up to the next week. On Thursday, we’ll be releasing a comprehensive “Injury Impact Report” that consolidates all these individual ailments into a team-level report.
Note: [ number in parentheses is the player rating - out of 20 ]
Be sure to check out the full injury report and the most recently updated injuries and status reports over at CFBDepth.com:
Miami (FL): DL Akheem Mesidor [16.7] -- Injured in the second quarter of the Louisville game but was able to return. We’ll be tracking in case there are any lingering impacts.
Virginia: QB Chandler Morris [16.3] -- Clearly banged up a few times in the week eight game and we’ll be tracking updates headed into week nine. Update from @StillMikeBarber: UVA coach Tony Elliott said QB Chandler Morris is still dealing with a left shoulder injury. Got fell on in the first half, but was able to play through. “He’s gonna battle that all year long.”
Florida State: QB Tommy Castellanos [16.2] -- Never looked right in the loss to Stanford. Was re-injured (officially) in the fourth quarter and we may see this one linger for some time.
Memphis: QB Brendon Lewis [16.1] -- Sustained an injury in the week eight loss to UAB. No immediate update on his status following the game but he was seen on crutches. AJ Hill replaced him over Arrington Maiden.
Florida: WR Aidan Mizell [16.0] -- Left the week eight game against Mississippi State with an injury and did not return. He eventually emerged from the locker room with a boot on his left foot.
Purdue: QB Ryan Browne [15.9] -- Took a shot in week eight game and needed some medical attention. It’s a left shoulder injury and we await an update.
Rutgers: WR Ian Strong [15.7] -- Goes down to the turf with an injury, pointing to his lower leg. He left the game and did not return. Head coach Greg Schiano stated that Strong had “something that we felt was significant enough not to go back.” His injury woes continue and he is a major part of this Rutgers offense.
Northwestern: WR Griffin Wilde [15.7] — Injured in-game week eight against Purdue. The injury is not considered too serious and they are ‘optimistic’ of his return going forward.
SMU: OL PJ Williams [15.6] -- Undisclosed injury since 10/9. Played week eight but was injured in-game and jogged off gingerly. Likely a reinjury of some sort that may linger for starting right tackle and best lineman on the team. Worth tracking.
Louisville: DB D’Angelo Hutchinson [15.5] -- Injured in the third quarter against Miami. No word on the severity of the injury, but his recent problems staying healthy is enough to get him on this list to track. He’s a key member of the Cardinals secondary.
Florida: DB Devin Moore [15.4] -- Left the field and went to the locker room with an injury after playing just eight snaps against Mississippi State. He did not return and this is another blow to the Gators’ secondary.
Texas Tech: TE Terrance Carter Jr. [15.4] -- Carted off the field with an ankle injury in-game week eight. Was seen on crutches and in a boot after the game.
Pittsburgh: LB Kyle Louis [15.4] -- Went down in week eight against Syracuse and was tended to by medical staff. Went to the injury tent and did not return. He played just 12 snaps. He is the leader of this defense.
Arizona State: RB Raleek Brown [15.4] -- Injured in-game week eight but was able to walk off on his own power and into the injury tent. He returned to the game and scored the game-winning touchdown. He also spoke to the media after the game and no injury was mentioned. That said, his extensive injury history lands him on our tracking list heading into pre-week nine.
Michigan: DL Rayshaun Benny [15.2] -- Injured in week eight game. Seen walking off on his own power but with a rather noticeable limp. Head coach Sherrone Moore said he would be “fine,” but that’s not a lot of information. The good news is that the top defensive tackle does not appear to have suffered anything too serious.
Northwestern: RB Caleb Komolafe [15.0] -- Went down during the week eight game against Purdue and walked back to sidelines on his own power but very gingerly. Inside NU has a quote from head coach David Braun: “Big Ten football. You know? What I will say is, I’m very optimistic about those guys... Both those dudes are warriors (Komolafe and Wilde).”
Vanderbilt: RB Sedrick Alexander [14.9] -- Went to the locker room with an injury after a trip to the tent. He did return to the game and there is not immediate news of a lingering injury. However, like many on this list, he has a history of ailments and we will be tracking heading into week nine against Mizzou.
Miami (FL): WR CJ Daniels [14.8] -- Injured in the third quarter of the Louisville game. Returned to the game and nothing considered to linger for him at this point.
Clemson: WR Bryant Wesco Jr. [14.8] -- Suffered what appeared to be a serious injury in week eight game. He was transported to the hospital. @Jon_Blau with this update following the injury: “Dabo Swinney says WR Bryant Wesco Jr. was taken to the hospital for treatment. Won’t say whether it’s head or neck. “It was a pretty serious deal,” Swinney said.
South Carolina: EDGE Dylan Stewart [14.6] -- Needed to take a trip to the medical tent in the second quarter of week eight. No major updates post-game other than it’s a hip injury.
Virginia: RB Xavier Brown [14.5] -- Suffered a foot injury in-game week eight against Washington State. Was helped off the field and was clearly frustrated by the injury.
Oregon: TE Kenyon Sadiq [14.5] -- Needed to leave the field and received some medical attention on his lower leg during week eight. Tracking for lingering impacts but there are no reports of serious damage.
Georgia: WR Colbie Young [14.5] -- Ankle injury sustained on the first drive of the game week eight. Missed the rest of the game and has a leg fracture that will force him down for quite some time.
Arizona State: DL Prince Dorbah [14.4] -- Went down for a good amount of time during week eight game and played just 18 snaps. This one may land him back on the injury report but there were few updates following the win over Texas Tech.
Oregon State: WR Trent Walker [14.4] -- Was banged up (again) in the week eight game against Layfayette and visited the tent. The top Beavers wide receiver has dealt with a number of issues this year and it was (falsely) reported that he would miss the rest of the season. He’s battling, but these injuries are piling up.
Florida: WR Vernell Brown III [14.1] -- Sustained an AC joint shoulder sprain in week eight against Mississippi State. That type of injury can last anywhere from one to six weeks depending on the severity. We’ll keep an eye on it. Brown has been the Gators’ most reliable receiving option this year with 32 catches and he also returns kicks and punts.
Nebraska: LB Dasan McCullough [14.1] -- Shaken up during week eight and visited the medical tent. Returned to the game. Tracking for potential lingering impacts.
Nebraska: OL Rocco Spindler [14.1] -- Broke his finger on the first play of the week eight game and had to be taken to the hospital. We’ll track his status moving forward but you’d think he could attempt to play through that.
Notre Dame: OL Billy Schrauth [14.1] -- Went down late in the first half with an injury and walked off under his own power. Came back and went down again in the fourth quarter. This is one to certainly keep an eye on as Schrauth is a big part of this offensive line paving the way for that dynamic running back combo.
North Carolina: DL Melkart Abou-Jaoude [14.0] -- Injured in the first quarter of Friday’s game against Cal. Did return to game. Tracking in case anything lingers into the week.
Tulane: S Bailey Despanie [14.0] -- Injured in week eight game against Army. No updates on the severity so we are tracking.
Nebraska: LB Vincent Shavers Jr. [13.9] -- Played through a thumb injury during week eight but it was clearly hampering him. Listing as questionable going forward.
Texas Tech: OL Davion Carter [13.9] -- Did not come out for the second half of week eight after a right ankle or foot injury.
Boston College: DL Quintayvious Hutchins [13.8] -- Injured in the second quarter against UConn. Tracking.
Boise State: WR Ben Ford [13.8] -- Seen slamming his helmet down as he walked to the medical tent in week eight against UNLV.
Wisconsin: RB Dilin Jones [13.7] -- Had to leave the week eight game against Ohio State with injury and did not return.
Georgia Tech: WR Malik Rutherford [13.7] -- Hobbled off the field early on the first drive of the week eight game against Duke.
Auburn: OL Connor Lew [13.6] -- Got injured in week eight game against Mizzou and it was announced he would not return.
Northwestern: DB Fred Davis [13.2] -- Went off the field holding this thigh. Tracking for updates on the severity of the injury.
West Virginia: N/S Fred Perry [13.2] -- Leg injury sustained in week eight against UCF. Seen with a brace on and moving very slowly. Not looking good.
Syracuse: OL Austin Collins [13.1] -- Left on the first offensive play and did not return.
Purdue: DL Ian Jeffries [13.0] -- Injured in-game week eight against Northwestern and walked off the field under his own power and to the medical tent.
Florida State: WR Lawayne McCoy [13.0] -- Injured in the third quarter of the Stanford Game. Tracking.
Stanford: QB Ben Gulbranson [12.9] -- Carted off the field after what appeared to be a serious injury before halftime week eight. He was replaced and now we await word on the severity of the injury.
Florida: DB Cormani McClain [12.8] -- Listed as ‘questionable’ for week eight on the initial SEC report. He was deemed a true game-time decision and was ultimately held out.
Oklahoma: DB Gentry Williams [12.8] -- Banged up his shoulder in week eight but x-rays and everything came back clean. Tracking for week nine.
Troy: LB Steven Cattledge [12.8] -- Targeting call early in the third quarter cost him the rest of week eight and will sit the first half of week nine.
Ohio State: CB Lorenzo Styles Jr. [12.7] -- Available to play week eight but still nursing something and didn’t start the game. A lingering issue worth tracking.
Washington: TE Quentin Moore [12.6] -- Injured badly in the week eight game against Michigan. Carted off the field. Likely out for a while.
Texas A&M: DB Will Lee III [12.6] -- Went down in week eight game against Arkansas. Walked under his own power to medical tent.
Florida: DB Jordan Castell [12.5] -- Announced ‘out’ for the week eight game just before kickoff further hampering this Gators’ secondary.
Georgia Tech: OL Harrison Moore [12.4] -- Injured in the third quarter against Duke. Tracking.
Florida State: TE Randy Pittman Jr. [12.2] -- Undisclosed Injury since 10/9. Listed as “Probable” in ACC initial report 10/16 for Stanford game. He was then re-injured early in the game and we’re tracking for severity going forward.
Wisconsin: LB Christian Alliegro [12.2] -- Sustained an ‘upper body’ injury in-game week eight. Announced as ‘questionable’ to return near half time.
Florida: DB Sharif Denson [12.0] -- Left the week eight game against Mississippi State with an injury and did not return.
Boise State: DB Zion Washington [11.9] -- Pounded his fist into the ground after an injury and he’s helped off straight to the injury tent during week eight game against UNLV.
LSU: OL Tyree Adams [11.9] -- Injured early in the week eight game against Vanderbilt. Had a noticeable limp after emerging from the tent.
Sam Houston: QB Hunter Watson [11.9] -- Dinged up in first half of week eight game against UTEP and did not return.
Wyoming: TE John Michael Gyllenborg [11.8] -- Missed a few games and was expected back week eight but rode a bike on the sidelines and played just eight snaps in the game against Air Force.
Michigan: OL Evan Link [11.6] -- Went down in the first quarter of the week eight game against Washington. Stretchered off the field. Does not look good.
Clemson: OL Collin Sadler [11.3] -- Carted off with his leg in an air cast in the fourth quarter of the SMU game.
California: ILB Cade Uluave [10.9] -- Injured in the third quarter against UNC. Did return to game, but we’ll track it for lingering impacts.
Michigan: WR Channing Goodwin [10.6] -- Injured in week eight game. Was able to walk off on his own but we are tracking.
Jacksonville State: QB Caden Creel [10.5] -- Left the week eight game against Delaware with an injury. Tracking through the bye week and into week ten.
West Virginia: QB Khalil Wilkins [10.4] -- Went down with an injury in week eight game against UCF.
Florida International: TE Dallas Payne [10.1] -- Injured in week eight; underwent surgery and is out for a while.
That’s our show for week eight Quick HITS. Thank you for subscribing and following along. More recap week eight content coming your way tomorrow and then we’ll move our focus looking ahead to week nine…