Week Nine Quick HITS
We take a look back at week eight and pull out the misleading results, trends, and the impact of pre- and in-game injuries.
Week nine is in the past, and we’re taking a look back at what transpired on the field to help determine what is ‘real’ and other information we’ll be tracking as we head into week ten of the season. We are officially heading ‘down the stretch’ as schools are positioning for their spots in Conference Championship races, the CFP, and bowl games.
The big news on Sunday is the firing of LSU head coach Brian Kelly. This program has the highest of standards, and his inability to get them over the hump, despite general success (34-14 record), was his undoing. Athletic Director Scott Woodward is likely going to ‘swing big’ again and get the next leader of this program in place to get the Tigers back to the top of that heap.
Other top storylines from a busy week nine:
Vanderbilt eeks out a win against a banged-up Missouri Tigers at home and continues their run in 2025. The Commodores overcame a rare sub-par performance from their all-everything QB Diego Pavia and won this one with defense. Great teams can win multiple ways, and Clark Lea’s program is doing just that.
The Kelly news dominated the headlines on Sunday, but not lost on us is the impressive win for the now AP #3 Texas A&M Aggies. Mike Elko has this team clicking on all cylinders and QB Marcell Reed is moving his way up the Heisman Trophy odds with another superb performance against the Tigers, totalling 310 yards and four touchdowns.
North Texas QB Drew Mestemaker threw for 608 yards and four touchdowns in a blowout win over Charlotte on Friday night. That’s not a typo. That is six hundred and eight yards passing.
The leading headline coming out of Texas’ improbable comeback victory over Mississippi State is how far the Longhorns have fallen. QB Arch Manning was banged up in an impressive performance, throwing for 346 yards and scoring four total touchdowns. They also received a dominating individual performance from Anthony Hill Jr., who racked up ten tackles, 3.5 tackles-for-loss (2.5 sacks), and a forced fumble.
MISLEADING RESULTS ::::::
The final score doesn’t always tell the whole story. We discuss utilizing as many data points as possible to identify the most comprehensive insights, rather than choosing between the two primary sources of post-game win expectancy (PGWE) and combining them. We will take collegefootballdata.com (CFBD) and ESPN (Bill Connelly’s SP+) numbers and find the average. We’ll also be able to analyze where those two data points differ and get an average. Here are the results from week two:
BYU pulled away and appeared to have dominated the Cyclones of Iowa State in week nine, winning 41-27. In fact, both metrics agree that not only should this have been closer, but the Cyclones really should have won this game. This is primarily due to unforced errors in the second half, including a muffed punt and a costly interception. They also had a 15% edge in the overall success rate 48% to 33%. A crazy, misleading result. Surprisingly, this is the only game in which the wrong side won according to the compiled PGWE numbers.
CFBD PGWE: Iowa State 83%
ESPN PGWE: Iowa State 62%
Nebraska bounced back against Northwestern, sealing a 7-point win, 28-21. That appears like it was a close result, but the underlying numbers suggest this was a bit more dominant than the final score suggests.
CFBD PGWE: Nebraska 98%
ESPN PGWE: Nebraska 85%
Miami (OH) actually beat Western Michigan by the final score of 26-17. That line doesn’t tell the whole story. They were actually losing this game 17-9 going into the final quarter, but came through, outscoring the Broncos 17-0 in that fourth quarter. Apparently, it should never have been in doubt.
CFBD PGWE: Miami (OH) 94%
ESPN PGWE: Miami (OH) 95%
South Alabama managed a seven-point win over Georgia State during a weekday Sun Belt showdown. That 38-31 final score is misleading according to the PGWE numbers. The Jaguars should have won this by a wider margin.
CFBD PGWE: South Alabama 93%
ESPN PGWE: South Alabama 86%
When you see that 42-32 result in the Navy win over FAU, you may think it was a good battle. However, both PGWE metrics agree that this should have been more lopsided. In fact, ESPN’s metric had Navy as a “never in doubt” winner in this one.
CFBD PGWE: Navy 82%
ESPN PGWE: Navy 99%
Old Dominion got back on track with a three-point win over Appalachian State in week nine. They needed this win and when you see a single field goal advantage, you may think it was a close game all the way through. At least one data provider (ESPN) doesn’t see that as the case and it could be considered misleading.
CFBD PGWE: Old Dominion 60%
ESPN PGWE: Old Dominion 91%
It is worth checking in on where the significant differences lie between the two similar yet distinct metrics to determine the validity of a win. Here is this week’s analysis:
CFBD had Bowling Green as a 73% PGWE number against Kent State this week. ESPN had them at just 10% — a stark difference between the results.
Temple beat Tulsa by a point in week nine, 38-37. CFBD suggests that Tulsa really should have won this game (79% PGWE) rather handily. Meanwhile, in a big shift, ESPN had Temple sitting at that 82% PGWE, a 61% difference.
ESPN does not believe Delaware’s in over Middle Tennessee was all that legit, putting them at just a 32% PGWE number. Meanwhile, CFBD had them at 77%.
CFBD had Mizzou at a 71% PGWE in their loss to Vanderbilt. ESPN disagrees, putting the Commodores at that same 71% number following the big win at home.
IN-GAME INJURIES WE ARE TRACKING ::::::
Here is a list of the most impactful injuries we saw during or just prior to kickoff this week. We will be tracking the news on each of these and updating leading up to the next week. On Thursday, we’ll be releasing a comprehensive “Injury Impact Report” that consolidates all these individual ailments into a team-level report.
Note: [ number in parentheses is the player rating - out of 20 ]
Be sure to check out the full injury report and the most recently updated injuries and status reports over at CFBDepth.com:
LSU: CB Mansoor Delane [16.9] -- Checked out of the week nine game against A&M with an injury. Tracking.
Oregon: QB Dante Moore [16.8] -- Sustained a nose injury in the Wisconsin game week nine. Returned to game. Expected to be fine.
Miami (FL): DL Akheem Mesidor [16.8] -- Announced as OUT during warmups before Stanford game.
Texas: QB Arch Manning [16.0] -- Needed to go to the medical tent during OT in week nine against Mississippi State.
Kentucky: OLB Steven Soles Jr. [16.0] -- Had a late ‘popup’ injury prior to the week nine game against Tennessee. Tracking into week ten.
Navy: TE Cody Howard [15.9] -- Had to be helped off the field week nine against FAU after bumping heads with an Owls defender.
Missouri: QB Beau Pribula [15.9] -- Injured his ankle in the week nine game against Vanderbilt. Looked bad at the time and it’s confirmed to be a serious injury post-game, though, it’s now not believed to be season-ending.
San Diego State: QB Jayden Denegal [15.7] -- Banged up and forced to leave the week nine game against Fresno. Returned to the game, but we’re still tracking.
Minnesota: RB Darius Taylor [15.6] -- Injured (again) in the blowout loss to Iowa in week nine after just one carry.
BYU: RB LJ Martin [15.6] -- Injured shoulder in the week nine matchup with Iowa State and did not return.
Iowa: OL Beau Stephens [15.6] -- Hobbled off the field with an left ankle injury and was replaced in-game week nine. Update is that he ‘should be fine’ for week 11 after a bye.
Pittsburgh: RB Desmond Reid [15.2] -- Injured in first quarter vs NC State. Returned to the game. Helped off-field again in the third quarter. Tracking..
Arizona State: QB Sam Leavitt [15.1] -- Limped off the field with a “re-tweaked” ankle injury during week nine game. Was held out as a precaution but it’s likely ot linger throughout the rest of the season.
North Carolina State: TE Justin Joly [15.1] -- Hurt in the second quarter against Pitt. Appeared to hurt his left leg on a TD catch and run. Tracking for severity.
TCU: RB Kevorian Barnes [14.8] -- Dealt with some injury in week nine, but did return to the game. Received a smaller workload (8 carries). Tracking.
Vanderbilt: DL Khordae Sydnor [14.6] -- Hurt his ankle and required attention during the week nine game against Mizzou.
Oklahoma State: DE Jaleel Johnson [14.5] -- DNP week nine against Texas Tech. Is at four games played so it’s likely he is taking a redshirt.
Boston College: OL Kevin Cline [14.5] -- Exited the game in the first half and did not return. Tracking for severity.
Baylor: CB Tevin Williams III [14.3] -- Upgraded to probable on the friday injury report for week nine. Played just eight snaps. Leaving on the list to track.
Northwestern: DB Josh Fussell [14.1] -- Hurt in the week nine game and had to leave the game, playing just 25 snaps. Tracking for impacts into week 11 after their bye week.
BYU: LB Siale Esera [14.0] -- Entered the medical tent during the week nine game against Iowa State. Tracking in case this lingers into something more.
Memphis: LB DeMarco Ward [14.0] -- Did not play in week nine game and it is likely injury related. Tracking.
Texas: OL DJ Campbell [14.0] -- Forced to leave the week nine game in the first quarter after being rolled up on. Returned to game.
Western Kentucky: QB Maverick McIvor [13.9] -- Was not listed on injury report but is believed to have a shoulder injury that prevented him from playing week nine.
Boston College: DL Quintayvious Hutchins [13.9] -- Needed trainers to help him off the field with an injury week nine.
Northwestern: DB Damon Walters [13.8] -- Left the week nine game against Nebraska with an upper body injury and did not return.
Illinois: DB Matthew Bailey [13.8] -- Went down on a play and was looked at by trainers. Ended up playing a full load, but tracking in case anything lingers.
Wyoming: OG/OT Caden Barnett [13.8] -- Tracking an injury that occured in-game week nine against Colorado State.
Virginia: S Ethan Minter [13.6] -- Banged up in the week nine game against UNC. Tracking.
Auburn: WR Cam Coleman [13.6] -- Went down with what appeared to be a right ankle/foot injury in week nine against Arkansas. Limped off the field.
TCU: WR Joseph Manjack IV [13.5] -- Curiously did not play week nine after not being listed on the injury report and was fully dressed.
North Carolina State: DL Josiah Victor [13.5] -- Injured in the first quarter against Pitt. Appeared to be holding his right knee on the field.
Indiana: LB Aiden Fisher [13.4] -- Sustained an injury in week nine game against UCLA. Was taken out as precaution and will get x-rays and MRI.
Kennesaw State: QB Amari Odom [13.3] -- Slightly banged up in the week eight win. Considered ‘day-to-day’ leading up to week ten.
Delaware: QB Nick Minicucci [13.3] -- Forced to leave late in the week nine game against Middle Tennessee...tracking.
South Florida: LB Jhalyn Shuler [13.2] -- Went down with a shoulder injury against Memphis week nine. Had his shoulder or collarbone worked on...
Kennesaw State: RB Coleman Bennett [13.2] -- Should be considered ‘day-to-day’ heading into week nine after an undisclosed injury popped up after the game.
San Diego State: OL Ross Ulugalu-Maseuli [13.2] -- Left the field with an injury at one point during week nine. Missed some time. Tracking.
Oklahoma: LB Kobie McKinzie [13.1] -- Visited the medical tent for a time week nine against Ole Miss. Tracking for potential lingering impacts.
Missouri: TE Brett Norfleet [12.7] -- Injured in-game week nine against Vanderbilt. Turned out to be a dislocated shoulder and he’ll miss some time. Exact timetable not immediately known.
Pittsburgh: OL BJ Williams [12.7] -- Tended to on the field week nine against NC State. Was able to walk off under his own power. Tracking...
Ball State: LB Joey Stemler [12.6] -- Was mentioned by head coach Mike Uremovich that he’s injured and no time estimate for his return.
Rutgers: OL Taj White [12.4] -- Sustained an injury in-game week nine against Purdue. Tracking.
UCLA: WR Rico Flores Jr. [12.4] -- Had to leave the week nine game against Indiana with an injury. He made it back from severe injuries in the past and it is unclear if this is a similar ailment.
Nebraska: OL Teddy Prochazka [12.2] -- Was down on the turf getting medical attention during week nine against Northwestern. Looks like a serious injury.
Virginia Tech: S Isaiah Cash [12.0] -- Shaken up in the third quarter against Cal with an apparent lower leg injury. He was able to return to the game.
Georgia Tech: DB Clayton Powell-Lee [11.9] -- Visited the injury tent in week nine against Syracuse. Returned to the game. Tracking for any lingering impacts.
Bowling Green: QB Drew Pyne [11.6] -- Made his way back for week nine but was re-injured and carted off the field. This may be the last injury he can handle.
Syracuse: DL Denis Jaquez Jr. [11.6] -- Shaken up on a play in the second quarter of the week nine game against Georgia Tech. Tracking.
South Florida: S Fred Gaskin [11.5] -- Scary collision in week nine against Memphis but was able to walk off the field on his own power.
Rutgers: DB Al-Shadee Salaam [11.0] -- Carted off the field during week nine against Purdue with what appeared to be a serious right leg injury.
BYU: RB Preston Rex [10.3] -- Sustained an apparent injury in week nine after extended workload following LJ Martin’s injury...tracking.
North Carolina State: SAF Ronnie Royal, III [10.1] -- Ruled out for the second half of the game against Pitt. Tracking for lingering impacts.
Georgia Southern: DL Kwon McGinney [8.9] -- Carted off the field week nine with a leg injury. Does not look promising going forward.
That’s our show for week nine Quick HITS. Thank you for subscribing and following along. More recap week eight content coming your way tomorrow and then we’ll move our focus looking ahead to week ten…