Week One Quick HITS
We are beginning a weekly article called 'Quick HITS' which will detail some of the big storylines, misleading/surprising results and in-game injuries we are tracking. This is week one.
Ah, college football is a welcome addition back into our lives. With the volume of schools playing, there is certainly no lack of data, information, and stories coming our way each Saturday (and Sunday-Monday this week). It is rather difficult to sift through it all, so you’ll want to have a resource to help do that for you. Somebody to get you the need-to-knows and then dive into the results a bit more to quickly hit you with knowledge that may not rise to the surface naturally. See what we are doing here? Yes, you do. This is that resource. Quick HITS for week one coming your way…
Don’t forget our extended week one does include more tantalizing storyline in and of itself. Bill Belichick makes his collegiate debut this evening, as his Tar Heels take on TCU. And, we have a ‘Game Card’ for you:
TOP STORYLINES ::::::
Mike Norvell's Statement Win
The Seminoles and head coach Mike Norvell made a big statement with their 31-17 win over Alabama in Tallahassee. It wasn't just the win, it was the way they won. Florida State, coming off of a hapless two-win season retooled both with personnel and coaching upgrades. It all came together with new OC Gus Malzahn (UCF) and new DC Tony White (Nebraska) leading the way to the victory. The 'Noles are back. They dominated the lines of scrimmage and frankly outclassed the Tide in just about every facet. It's not over for Alabama, despite the early fan reaction to the loss. There is time to come back and plenty of avenues to the arrival of new OC Gus Malzahn (UCF) and new DC Tony White (Nebraska) leading the way to back to the playoffs. However, that window for error is quickly closing and Kalen DeBoer is feeling the pressure early in 2025.make their way still
LSU Saves the SEC
We won't make the whole 'it just means more' joke here (yet), but that's primarily thanks to LSU, who saved the conference from a nightmare result in week one. As discussed above, the Crimson Tide had lost to Florida State. Texas already fell to the Buckeyes earlier in the day. It was up to the Tigers to find a way to come out of Clemson, South Carolina with a win. A tall task for sure, but Brian Kelly's squad, led by QB Garrett Nussmeier and a stingy Blake Baker-led defensive unit. They exercised the opening week demons that plagued them the first three seasons of Kelly's LSU tenure. Losing to FSU in '22 and '23, followed by a loss to USC to open the 2024 season. At least one SEC team came out on top.
Ohio State Remains on Top
As mentioned, the Ohio State Buckeyes handled their business at home against the top-ranked Texas Longhorns, hanging on to a 14-7 win in Columbus. They did so with an impressive defensive performance, choreographed by one Matt Patricia, who took over for Jim Knowles. They were overwhelming, making life really difficult for Arch Manning and the entire Texas offense. Julian Sayin found Carnell Tate to extend the lead to what seemed like an insurmountable two-touchdown lead. The Longhorns battled back and actually out-gained the Buckeyes 336-203, but were able to find the end zone. Manning and company had a shot late to get things tied up, but didn't get over the hump.
Real Problems in Manhattan?
The Kansas State loss to Iowa State in week one was understandable. They were unfortunate with turnovers and lost to a good Iowa State team. It certainly wasn't damning, but losing to FCS North Dakota in week two would have been. And it almost happened. The Wildcats snuck out with a 38-35 win over the Fighting Hawks, who certainly lived up to their name, giving K-State all they could handle. Leading 21-17 at the half, they found themselves down 10 points in the fourth quarter, only to fight back and take the lead with 4:19 left to play. To the credit of QB Avery Johnson, he led an 81-yard touchdown drive to regain the lead, and then the defense was able to hold. Indeed, a heart-stopping performance for Chris Klieman's crew. He vows to get things figured out. Plus, see below for a little more analysis that may ease some of the frustrations.
MISLEADING RESULTS ::::::
The final score doesn’t always tell the whole story. We utilize the ‘post-game win expectancy’ (PGWE) metric provided by Bill Connelly at ESPN, to help us identify the reality of these outcomes. Here is a quick look at which ones are the most misleading:
That Ohio State win over Texas appears to be a bit misleading, as they came in with just an 18.1% PGWE despite the dominating performance on defense. We mentioned the yardage difference in the ‘storylines’ above.
Georgia Tech’s win over Colorado in Boulder was impressive. However, their seven-point margin should have been more, according to PGWE, which had them at 98.2%. This is driven by untimely turnovers that crushed promising drives.
Kansas State needed that late drive to secure a win over FCS North Dakota. However, they held a 91% PGWE and had it not been for some bad bounces, things could have been much different.
We were all excited to see Rice’s new offense under Scott Abell, who ran a fun attack at Davidson before getting the head coaching job in Houston. That offense put up just 14 points, but the defense was stout in the win. PGWE numbers say that the Owls should have won this game by much more than two points.
Many cashed in on a Toledo squad that found a way to back into a cover in week one; however, the PGWE numbers suggest that Kentucky should have put this one away and covered that spread rather easily.
Others of note:
Auburn 97.8% PGWE with a 14-point win over Baylor
Arkansas State 100% PGWE despite a final score of 42-24 over FCS SEMO
UTSA kept their game with Texas A&M somewhat ‘close’, finishing with that same 42-24 score. But, the Aggies had a 99.9% PGWE
Tennessee finished with a 45-26 win over Syracuse, indicating it was a decent battle. However, PGWE says it was never in doubt with a 99.6%
SURPRISING RESULTS ::::::
We like to compare the results against the final spread numbers to help identify which ones were the most eye-opening. The first week typically yields a substantial number of these. Here is what we have:
Middle Tennessee’s loss to FCS Austin Peay tops the list. The Governor’s are a solid squad, but this was a 15.5 point spread in favor of Derek Mason’s squad. The Govs’ got off to a hot start, building up a 21-0 lead and never lost it. The Blue Raiders managed only 158 yards of total offense in the 34-14 loss.
The thought was that the UMass/Temple matchup was going to be a close contest. Two new head coaches at the programs made their debuts. K.C. Keeler came over from Sam Houston, while Joe Harasymiak took over in Amherst, after a three-year stint as the defensive coordinator at Rutgers. Keeler’s Owls laid the wood, winning his one 42-10, despite just a 2.5 point spread going in. Now, we must find out if Temple is ahead of the game, or if UMass is that far behind.
In our Thursday kickoff, we saw one of the more surprising results when USF put a hurting on Boise State in South Florida. The 34-7 win was a statement for Alex Golesh and the the Bulls program. They were a 5.5-point underdog coming in.
Iowa State came back from the emotional first win in Ireland and shook off any jet lag against a very good FCS team. The Cyclones won handily, 55-7, over South Dakota. That line closed at -16.5, and Matt Campbell’s squad avoided any letdowns with the big win.
Many (including us) were high on the Virginia Cavaliers coming in this season. However, beating what appeared to be a hapless Coastal Carolina team in week one by 41 points was certainly not expected. It was a 13.5-point spread. QB Chandler Morris threw for 264 yards and two touchdowns before he was forced to leave with a shoulder injury. WR Cam Ross caught a touchdown and returned a kickoff 100-yards for another score. The defense was smothering all day. A great opening performance for Tony Elliott’s squad.
Georgia Southern fell to Fresno State, 42-14 — despite just a 1.5-point spread.
Tulane’s solid beating of Northwestern, 23-3 topped the spread (-6.5) by 13.5 points.
Utah got off to a great start, beating up on UCLA 43-10, despite just a 6.5 point spread heading into the game.
IMPACT IN-GAME INJURIES ::::::
Here is a list of the most impactful injuries we saw during week one. We will be tracking the news on each of these and updating throughout the week. On Thursday, we’ll be releasing a comprehensive “Injury Impact Report” that consolidates all these individual ailments into a team-level report.
Oklahoma State: OLB Wendell Gregory [12.6] — Arrested Saturday and his status for week two is very much in question. He had three sacks in the opener.
Georgia: P Brett Thorson [17.4] — Still working back from injury suffered last season. Did not punt in week one. Remains questionable.
Virginia: QB Chandler Morris [15.3] — Exited the game in the third quarter with a left shoulder injury—possibly a mild AC joint issue
Pittsburgh: DB Rashad Battle [14.5] — Exited the game in the second half with an apparent injury. He was escorted to the locker room by trainers
Clemson: WR Antonio Williams [14.4] — Right hamstring injury early in the first quarter. Though he returned to the sideline in the second half (seen stretching on a stationary bike), he remained inactive on offense for the rest of the game
Alabama: OL Jaeden Roberts [14.1] — Cleared to play week one against Florida State, but did not record any snaps.
Georgia: DB Daylen Everette [14.1] — Missed week one, mentioned to have a lingering injury with no specifics.
SMU: LB Alexander Kilgore [13.6] — Was injured while celebrating a 10-yard pick-six. He left the field on crutches while wearing a protective boot due to a left ankle injury.
SMU: WR Jordan Hudson [13.3] — Exited the game on the very first play with an apparent left elbow/shoulder injury. X-rays were negative, but his status for the next game remains uncertain.
Clemson: S Khalil Barnes [12.9] — Exited late in the second quarter under unclear circumstances. He walked off the field under his own power but did not return to the game
Alabama: WR Ryan Williams [12.8] — Suffered a concussion in the fourth quarter of week one. Very uncertain for week two.
Alabama: LB Jah-Marien Latham [12.8] — Had to be helped off the field in the fourth quarter of week one.
Georgia: OL Earnest Greene, III [12.4] — Was replaced in-game week one after dealing with lower body stiffness.
Georgia: OL Juan Gaston [10.5] — Suffered an ankle injury in week one against Marshall. Questionable going forward.
Michigan: DB Rod Moore [15.3] — Announced out for the season opener against UNM. The comeback attempt remains delayed by a week.
Texas Tech: QB Behren Morton [15.0] — Headed to the locker room in week one while up big before halftime. Tracking.
Tennessee: DB Ty Redmond [14.0] — Suffered an injury in-game week one. Tracking for severity.
Colorado: WR Omarion Miller [14.0] — Coach Prime says Miller tweaked his hamstring in week 1 vs. Georgia Tech.
Oregon: OL Emmanuel Pregnon [13.9] — Left the field of play after getting rolled up on in week one. Tracking.
San Jose State: WR Matthew Coleman [12.7] — Injured in week one game. Did not return.
More to come! Thanks for following…