Week One: Quirks and Thurs/Fri Picks

Let's take a look at what our (CFBDm) model thinks about these Thursday and Friday games for week one and get a quick glimpse at the schedule "quirks" we'll take into account for the rest of the week.

Introducing what we’ll call schedule “quirks” to help put a label on those elements that we think could affect the outcome of a game and shift our model in that direction. We mentioned these in our first introductory article. I suggest you give that a quick glance-over before you dive in here:

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Quirks ||||||

These quirks have a certain x-factor in our model. We’ll attempt to figure out if we have the right ‘x’ and adjust as needed. First, let’s see what we have for week one:

Hangover Spots (negative)
This is where we identify a place a team just played a hard fought battle, coming off a rivalry game or otherwise would need an extra motivation to get up off the mat.

• Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets

You may be asking why would Florida State not be included here. They would be in the same boat. The answer is simple; they didn’t win. Their motivation will be on a different level for this one. Had the result been reversed; this may very well have been as well.

Look Ahead Spots (negative)
A big game coming up next week. The coach says to stay focused and go week-to-week; but we know that doesn’t always happen and looking ahead is real.

• Iowa Hawkeyes
  This week: vs. Illinois State, Saturday at 12:00 PM EST
  Next week: Iowa State

• Iowa State Cyclones
  This week: vs. North Dakota, Saturday at 3:30 PM EST
  Next week: Iowa

• South Florida Bulls
  This week: vs. Bethune-Cookman, Saturday at 7:00 PM EST
  Next week: at Alabama

• Tulane Green Wave
  This week: vs. Southeastern Louisiana, Thursday at 8:00 PM EST
  Next week: vs. Kansas State

• Charlotte 49ers
  This week: vs. James Madison, Saturday at 8:00 PM EST
  Next week: at North Carolina

• Boise State Broncos
  This week: vs. Georgia Southern, Saturday at 4:00 PM EST
  Next week: at Oregon

• Utah State Aggies
  This week: vs. Robert Morris, Saturday at 8:00 PM EST
  Next week: at USC
  

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Thursday Slate Predictions and Picks ||||||

• Coastal Carolina 34, at Jacksonville State 29 (-3.5; 53.5)
  Play: Coastal Carolina +3.5 (2 units)
  Play: OVER 53.5 (2 units)
  
  Our model really likes Coastal. Mainly because of the projected talent differential. This is a scary one. Our player ratings definitely have an leveled approach, meaning we take into account the level of play each player has experienced. Since two years ago Jacksonville State was an FCS program, that is taken into account. This may be different if Rich Rod would have committed to a quarterback (but he didn’t). We’ll have to see.

  
  REMINDER: Don’t put a lot on these suggestions. We are in beta mode!

• North Carolina 28 (-2; 51.5), at Minnesota 28
  Play: OVER 51.5 (1 unit)
  
  This one comes out pretty darn even. Which it is. The reason Minnesota is getting those two points is the uncertainty around two key Gophers: WR Daniel Jackson and RB Darius Taylor. Both were nicked up and neither team put out a depth chart. A little gamesmanship, huh? Our model assumes they both play. Not enough for a play on the spread. We like the offense to break through and get this over

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Friday Slate Predictions and Picks ||||||

• Oklahoma 50 (-42; 51.5), Temple 6
  No Plays

  
  These big lines in week one are always a bit daunting. I’m relatively glad that it stayed too close to make a play call. A lot of variables in garbage time. If we had a lean, it would be with OU. They may not even give up six.
  

• Michigan State 28 (-14; 45.5), Florida Atlantic 9
  Play: Michigan State -14 (2 units)
  Play: UNDER 45.5 (2 units)

  
  Jonathan Smith gets off a good start in his new home. We don’t see this FAU offense getting going under new signal caller Cam Fancher. It’s going to be a bit raucous in East Lansing on an opening Friday night.
  

• Wisconsin 48 (-23.5; 56.5), Western Michigan 16

  Play: Wisconsin - 23.5 (3 units)

  Play: OVER (3 units)
  ***Correction from original post - we have this one way over!

  
  Our ratings really, really like this Wisconsin team. Especially this offense. Pair that with a home game in the first week. Western Michigan does some fun things on offense too and it sees them getting free a few times to get this one well over the number.
  

• TCU 31 (-9.5; 59.5), at Stanford 24
  Play: Stanford +9.5 (1 unit)

  Play: UNDER 59.5 (1 unit)

  
  These are both low confidence plays and our model has it very close to the number. In these instances, we’ll lean on taking the points (again, low level). Same with the total, it’s coming in close but maybe some early jitters on offense and a low scoring first quarter keep them from getting there?

That’s our show. More to come as we react to the results and then provide our full slate of plays for Saturday. Thank you for following along, and remember our motto: “Don’t bet your house on any of these (yet).”