Week Seven Quick HITS
We take a look back at week six and pull out the misleading results, trends, and the impact of pre- and in-game injuries.
The chaos continues around the great game of college football following an eventful, eye-opening Week 7. It began with some key matchups that would help define the rest of the season and ended with some clarity on who and what is real — and who will no longer be the head coach at three schools in particular. The biggest news came out of Happy Valley after the Nittany Lions lost their third straight contest, this time to another lower-level conference foe, Northwestern. It was the end of the road for James Franklin. The Penn State brass fired their head coach of the last ten-plus seasons and are moving on.
Other coach firings included Trent Bray, let go at Oregon State after a 0-7 start to this 2025 season, and Trent Dilfer’s run at UAB has ended after a 9-21 head coaching record at the school.
Indiana gets a statement win at Oregon. Alabama goes on the road and survives Mizzou. Texas bounces back to defeat Oklahoma in Red River. These are some of the results we saw, and now we take a closer look at what really happened between the lines and what could be misconstrued by looking only at the final score. We’ll also get a jump on the impactful in-game injuries that may impact things as we advance to week eight.
MISLEADING RESULTS ::::::
The final score doesn’t always tell the whole story. We discuss utilizing as many data points as possible to identify the most comprehensive insights, rather than choosing between the two primary sources of post-game win expectancy (PGWE) and combining them. We will take collegefootballdata.com (CFBD) and ESPN (Bill Connelly’s SP+) numbers and find the average. We’ll also be able to analyze where those two data points differ and get an average. Here are the results from week two:
Troy outlasted Texas State in a good old-fashioned shootout in San Marcos. The Bobcats appeared to have this one well in hand, leading 28-7 after the first quarter. But the Trojans didn’t give up, came back, forced overtime, and eventually stole the win. Texas State had a chance to win it in regulation, but they missed a makable field goal from 42-yards. Both metrics say that Texas State deserved to win this game.
CFBD PGWE: Texas State 84%
ESPN PGWE: Texas State 67%
The Minnesota win over Purdue looked like another ho-hum touchdown win for the Gophers, but a deeper look reveals something very different. They were able to overcome two separate deficits and still won the game despite being outgained by nearly 200 yards. There were quite a few key mistakes by the Boilers, which cost them the game — including four turnovers and nine penalties.
CFBD PGWE: Purdue 77%
ESPN PGWE: Purdue 69%
Ole Miss was seen letting those pesky Washington State Cougars hang around in week seven in Oxford. The final score was a three-point victory, 24-21. Both PGWE metrics suggest that the final difference is misleading and the Rebels should have wrapped this up much earlier. That said, it's still nowhere close to the 31-point spread that was set for this matchup.
CFBD PGWE: Ole Miss 87%
ESPN PGWE: Ole Miss 83%
Cincinnati is here again. They continue to win games, and some are closer than they should be. As the Bearcats win their fifth straight, that final score of 20-11 gives off the feeling that it was a close win. However, PGWE numbers suggest this is another missed opportunity for a blowout in their favor. This one was never in doubt.
CFBD PGWE: Cincinnati 95%
ESPN PGWE: Cincinnati 99%
James Madison posted a 24-14 win over Louisiana this weekend. PGWE tells us that the final score is presented to us. A dominant second half, highlighted by the Dukes' comeback from a halftime deficit, led to the win.
CFBD PGWE: JMU 97%
ESPN PGWE: JMU 97%
LSU beat South Carolina 20-10 on Saturday evening. This game featured many turnovers deep in enemy territory, and while a ten-point win is nice, it should have been a more convincing win for the Tigers.
CFBD PGWE: LSU 93%
ESPN PGWE: LSU 99%
Tulane’s win over East Carolina earlier this week was a bit misleading in the final score. The Green Wave appeared to have snuck out a close one, but a few missed opportunities and mistakes made it closer than it really should have been.
CFBD PGWE: Tulane 84%
ESPN PGWE: Tulane 96%
A lot is made of Northwestern’s 22-21 win over Penn State this weekend and the repercussions that come from it. PGWE suggests that the Nittany Lions should have won this game rather handily. However, that alone is a significant factor in the decision to remove James Franklin from his position. They were not executing on the field at the level of the talent on the roster.
CFBD PGWE: Penn State 81%
ESPN PGWE: Penn State 73%
It is worth noting that while the CFBD metric had the Missouri/Alabama game being a ‘toss-up’ (53%) — ESPN had Mizzou as the more likely victor (72%), had it not been for some mistakes. That’s been the rub for the Tigers for some time now. They are there talent-wise, but they just can’t seem to get over the hump.
It’s always interesting to see where the most significant differences lie between the two similar yet distinct metrics to determine the validity of a win. Here is this week’s analysis:
The Jacksonville State - Sam Houston result is up for debate. CFBD had the Gamecocks as a deserved winner, despite just a two-point win on a game-winning field goal (95% PGWE). Meanwhile, ESPN disagrees and believes the Bearkats should have, in fact, grabbed their first victory of 2025 at 73% in favor of Sam Houston.
Maryland lost to Nebraska this weekend, 34-31. CFBD had the Terps as a 68% likely winner, while ESPN had the Cornhuskers at 95%.
CFBD had the Colorado Buffaloes as a winner who deserved that result against Iowa State on Saturday. They have them recorded as a 92% PGWE metric. Meanwhile, ESPN has Iowa State as the deserving winner at 68% PGWE.
IN-GAME INJURIES WE ARE TRACKING ::::::
Here is a list of the most impactful injuries we saw during or just prior to kickoff this week. We will be tracking the news on each of these and updating leading up to the next week. On Thursday, we’ll be releasing a comprehensive “Injury Impact Report” that consolidates all these individual ailments into a team-level report.
Note: [ number in parentheses is the player rating - out of 20 ]
Be sure to check out the full injury report and the most recently updated injuries and status reports over at CFBDepth.com:
Texas Tech: DL Skyler Gill-Howard [16.6] -- Carted off the field in the first quarter with an air cast put on. X-rays were negative and he returned to the sidelines in a walking boot. There is some general optimism about his ability to return to the field sooner than later.
Tennessee: RB DeSean Bishop [16.3] -- Had to visit the medical tent in week seven with an apparent right leg injury in the third quarter.
Arizona State: QB Sam Leavitt [16.3] -- Was officially ruled out for week seven against Utah before the game began. The update is that he remains week-to-week going forward.
Michigan: RB Justice Haynes [16.2] -- Left the week seven game against USC with an apparent upper-body injury. He returned to the sidelines, but not the game. We’ll keep an eye on this one.
Pittsburgh: LB Rasheem Biles [16.1] -- Injured in the first quarter against Florida State this week. He limped to the locker room and we’ll await any updates on his status going forward.
Minnesota: LB Maverick Baranowski [15.9] -- Took a shot from a teammate during a play during week seven and appeared banged up. Tracking in chase it lingers.
Clemson: QB Cade Klubnik [15.9] -- Said to be “OK” after an ankle injury suffered against Boston College in week seven. Will be eased into practice this coming week.
Texas Tech: QB Behren Morton [15.8] -- Left week seven with what appeared to be a left leg injury. Tracking for severity.
Oregon: QB Dante Moore [15.7] -- Took several sacks and had a noticeable limp during the game though he never exited. Tracking in case anything lingers.
USC: RB Waymond Jordan [15.6] -- Left the week seven game with a serious ankle injury that will keep him out of action for multiple weeks.
Penn State: QB Drew Allar [15.4] -- Suffered a season ending injury during week seven against Northwestern.
North Carolina State: WR Terrell Anderson [15.4] -- Left the week seven game against Notre Dame with a shoulder injury in the first half and was unable to return.
Houston: TE Tanner Koziol [15.3] -- Sustained an upper-body injury and was announced a ‘doubtful’ to return in week seven. We will track his status throughout the week.
Texas: RB Quintrevion Wisner [15.3] -- Jogged to the locker room after taking a big shot late in the Red River game week seven.
Texas A&M: WR KC Concepcion [15.1] -- Sustained a hamstring injury in week seven game and was limited the rest of the game. These hamstring injuries tend to linger and we’re putting him on this list to track as an impact injury heading into week eight.
Texas A&M: RB Le’Veon Moss [15.0] -- Left the week seven game with an undisclosed injury and did not return to the game. Tracking ahead of week eight against Arkansas.
South Carolina: DB Brandon Cisse [15.0] -- Sustained a knee injury bad enough to keep him out for the remainder of the week seven game against LSU.
LSU: WR Aaron Anderson [14.9] -- Said to be dealing with multiple injuries, including to his hip, toe, and knee. DNP week seven and was seen in street clothes indicating he was not close to getting on the field. Remains very questionable going forward.
San Jose State: QB Walker Eget [14.8] -- Sustained an injury and had to leave the game against Wyoming in week seven.
Colorado State: RB Justin Marshall [14.8] -- Went down with what appeared to be a bad injury in week seven against Fresno State.
South Carolina: DL Gabriel Brownlow-Dindy [14.6] -- Shaken up again during the week seven game. His recent injury history puts him back on this list to track.
SMU: CB Marcellus Barnes Jr. [14.6] -- Went down with an injury and walked over to the sidelines during week seven. Played a full workload though.
Oregon State: WR Trent Walker [14.6] -- Had to be carried off the field in the week seven loss to Wake Forest.
Georgia Tech: DB Ahmari Harvey [14.6] -- Sustained an injury in-game week seven against Virginia Tech. No update after the game on severity.
Missouri State: QB Jacob Clark [14.6] -- Took a big hit right before the half in week five against WKU, didn’t start the second half. Out week seven after warming up. Remains questionable going forward.
Air Force: C Jack Burnett [14.5] -- Left the field under his own power but did sustain a left leg injury that needed to be looked at.
SMU: DT Terry Webb [14.4] -- Left the week seven game for a bit but returned to the game and should be okay going forward.
Rice: QB Chase Jenkins [14.1] -- Injured in week seven loss to UTSA. He left the field and did not return.
Minnesota: DB Garrison Monroe [14.1] -- Appeared to have pulled his hamstring in week seven game. Tracking for lingering impacts into week eight.
USC: RB Eli Sanders [14.1] -- Left the week seven game with an injury and did not return. It is believed to be a season-ending injury.
Alabama: RB Jam Miller [14.1] -- Suffered a concussion in the week seven game against Mizzou.
Arizona State: OL Ben Coleman [14.0] -- Left the field for a time with an injury in week seven against Utah.
That’s our show for week seven Quick HITS. Thank you for subscribing and following along. More recap week seven content coming your way tomorrow and then we’ll move our focus looking ahead to week eight!