Week Ten Quick HITS
We take a look back at week ten and pull out the misleading results, trends, and the impact of pre- and in-game injuries.
We have made it through week ten, and, aside from a general feeling that this year is flying by, it has also taken on a life of parity in our sport. With NIL and other player acquisition factors leading the way, we have entered a time when there are certainly more schools in the hunt for the CFP and the eventual National Championship. Here are some other headlines and top storylines coming out of week ten in college football:
Auburn has parted ways with head coach Hugh Freeze, following a 10-3 loss to Kentucky. That result was the last straw, and the administration pulled the plug. That’s now ten head coaches fired at some point this season (not counting the Stanford ousting of Troy Taylor before the season began) and three in the SEC.
Pure chaos has ensued in the ACC with their two top ten residents being taken down by their conference-mates. Then No. 8 Georgia Tech fell to NC State, and SMU upended former No. 10 Miami. Six teams remain in contention for the Conference Championship game, the fast track to the CFP, with Virginia quietly sneaking to the top of the heap with a 5-0 conference record. Let’s take a look at our SOS+ numbers to see which teams face the toughest road to Charlotte (notice it does not include Miami or Clemson):
Virginia (5-0) ::: Wake Forest, at Duke, Virginia Tech
Georgia Tech (5-1) ::: Pittsburgh, at California
Pittsburgh (5-1) ::: at Georgia Tech, Miami
Louisville (4-1) ::: California, Clemson, at SMU
SMU (4-1) ::: at Boston College, Louisville, at California
Duke (4-1) ::: Virginia, at North Carolina, Wake Forest
Louisville has the most challenging road in its final three games, though they are hosting two of those games. California gets to play the role of ‘spoiler’ while scheduled to play three of these remaining contenders the rest of the way. It would shock nobody if they could knock somebody off (and out) down the stretch. The most straightforward path for anybody is for Virginia to win out, as they would be unbeaten in the conference and have a spot locked up, while the rest of them battle for the right to join them. Everybody has a head-to-head game in this mix (Virginia at Duke; Pittsburgh at Georgia Tech; and Louisville at SMU).The Vanderbilt run has hit a speed bump in the form of the Longhorns and, in particular, QB Arch Manning, who was brilliant in Texas’ now “upset” win over the ‘Dores. He went 25-for-33 for 328 yards and three touchdowns, while now Heisman afterthought Diego Pavia struggled under duress most of the afternoon. That is Vandy’s first conference loss, but now the leash is shortened. They have home games against Auburn and Kentucky, before finishing up against Tennessee (in Knoxville).
MISLEADING RESULTS ::::::
The final score doesn’t always tell the whole story. We discuss utilizing as many data points as possible to identify the most comprehensive insights, rather than choosing between the two primary sources of post-game win expectancy (PGWE) and combining them. We will take collegefootballdata.com (CFBD) and ESPN (Bill Connelly’s SP+) numbers and find the average. We’ll also be able to analyze where those two data points differ and get an average. Here are the results from week two:
In one of the most misleading results of the entire season, we saw Duke beat Clemson 46-45 in a shootout thriller in week ten. However, not only was Dabo Swinney fined for comments about the referees, both metrics suggest he has many other reasons to wonder how the heck the Tigers lost this game.
CFBD PGWE: Clemson 97%
ESPN PGWE: Clemson 94%
Minnesota won a close conference matchup with Michigan State, 23-20. However, both metrics agree that the Gophers were lucky to end up on top. The Spartans led for most of the second half and outgained Minnesota by 166 yards in the contest. Sparty also missed two field goals and had a turnover on downs.
CFBD PGWE: Michigan State 80%
ESPN PGWE: Michigan State 93%
Michigan beat Purdue 21-16 in what appeared to be a close one in Ann Arbor. Two red zone turnovers by QB Bryce Underwood also cost them points on the board. Ultimately, the Wolverines were a bit more dominant than the final score tells us.
CFBD PGWE: Michigan 92%
ESPN PGWE: Michigan 95%
Louisville beat Virginia Tech by 12 points this week, 28-16. However, both metrics agree that this should have been closer to a 3-4 touchdown margin. Untimely turnovers and a block punt allowed this one to appear/stay closer than it really should have. Miller Moss threw a pick-six, which always skews the score a bit. Those miscues led to an early 16-7 deficit, but the Cardinals eventually settled in and won handily.
CFBD PGWE: Louisville 100%
ESPN PGWE: Louisville 100%
New Mexico surprised UNLV this weekend, winning by five points. However, things could have been even worse for the Rebels, according to both of our tracked PGWE metrics.
CFBD PGWE: New Mexico 93%
ESPN PGWE: New Mexico 76%
At least one of the metrics believes that the underlying play from Washington State shows they deserved better than the 10-7 loss to Oregon State. CFBD had the Cougars as a 98% win expectancy, while ESPN had them closer to the toss-up that it was. That’s enough to get them on the list here.
CFBD PGWE: Washington State 98%
ESPN PGWE: Oregon State 56%
It is worth checking in on where the significant differences lie between the two similar yet distinct metrics to determine the validity of a win. Here is this week’s analysis:
Marshall lost to Coastal Carolina 44-27. CFBD somehow had the Thundering Herd as a 71% favorite to win this game despite the lopsided final score. ESPN disagrees, putting them at just 3%.
West Virginia stunned Houston in week ten, winning 45-35. Our sources disagree on the full legitimacy of the win. CFBD had the Mountaineers at 93%, while ESPN gave them only a 30% PGWE number.
That aforementioned Pac-12 showdown between Washington State and Oregon State was the third-highest differential, with CFBD giving Cougars the sure win.
IN-GAME INJURIES WE ARE TRACKING ::::::
Here is a list of the most impactful injuries we saw during or just prior to kickoff this week. We will be tracking the news on each of these and updating leading up to the next week. On Thursday, we’ll be releasing a comprehensive “Injury Impact Report” that consolidates all these individual ailments into a team-level report.
Note: [ number in parentheses is the player rating - out of 20 ]
Be sure to check out the full injury report and the most recently updated injuries and status reports over at CFBDepth.com:
We’ll start with the two biggest injury updates from the week ten games and both are unfortunate losses of star players. Nebraska QB Dylan Raiola is lost for the season with a broken tibia. Meanwhile, Florida loses star true freshman WR Dallas Wilson to a re-injury of his foot that kept him out at the beginning of the season.
Memphis: QB Brendon Lewis [16.4] -- Injured late in the week 10 game and we are tracking for severity. Still awaiting word as of Monday morning.
Louisville: RB Isaac Brown [16.3] -- Went down on the sidline after a run with a non-contact injury. Head coach Jeff Brohm said he “might be out a little while”.
Oklahoma: DL R Mason Thomas [16.1] -- Spent a good amount of time in the injury tent with a hamstring issue during week ten game against Tennessee, and played just 17 snaps. Brent Venables gave an update saying he doesn’t expect him to miss much or any time. This is very good news for the Sooners.
SMU: QB Kevin Jennings [15.6] -- Played hobbled all game vs Miami. He is a well-known tough dude who can play through a number of ailments. We’ll be tracking in case there is anything that lingers into week 11 preparations.
Houston: DL Carlos Allen Jr. [15.3] -- Limped off the field on the first series with some sort of injury in week ten. He did return to the field, but we’ll be tracking as the Cougars look to rebound from this tough loss.
Minnesota: DL Anthony Smith [14.9] -- Shook up on a play week ten and needed assistance into the tent. It looked bad, but he was able to return to the game. We’ll keep him on the ‘tracking’ list though as adrenaline often plays a role in-game and then there could be lingering impacts.
Virginia: RB J’Mari Taylor [14.8] -- Sustained an injury that forced him out of the week ten game for a period of time. He returned to the game. Tracking.
Purdue: RB Devin Mockobee [14.5] -- Listed ‘out’ on the pre-game availability report for week ten. May be out for the season. Awaiting an update.
Indiana: OL Drew Evans [14.5] -- A surprising addition to the availability report pre-game as ‘out’ week ten. Questionable going forward.
Arkansas State: OL Tristian Smith [14.4] -- Left the game on a cart after a right leg injury during week ten game against Troy.
Baylor: RB Bryson Washington [14.3] -- Banged up early in the week ten game against UCF. Tracking for severity.
Miami (FL): DB Jakobe Thomas [14.3] -- Injured on a hit to SMU QB Kevin Jennings during first half of week ten.
Minnesota: LB Joey Gerlach [13.9] -- Injured on punt coverage play and needed help into the medical tent during week ten game against Michigan State.
Iowa State: TE Benjamin Brahmer [13.9] -- Sustained an injury in-game week ten that required a trip to a local medical center...immediate reports were positive but he has an extensive injury history and we’ll keep an eye on things heading into next week.
Georgia: DB Demello Jones [13.8] -- Appeared to sustain an elbow injury in week ten game. Tracking.
Georgia: ILB Chris Cole [13.8] -- Went down with a knee injury in week ten game against Florida.
Texas: WR Ryan Wingo [13.7] -- Went to the injury tent in the first quarter of week ten game against Vandy. It was a thumb injury and he could have returned.
Colorado: S Tawfiq Byard [13.3] -- Targeting ejection in the second half of week ten will cost him the first half against West Virginia week 11.
Boise State: QB Maddux Madsen [13.1] -- Carted off the field during week ten game and it was said after that “it’s going to be a while”.
Notre Dame: CB DeVonta Smith [13.1] -- Was able to get back on the field but appeared to be re-injured during week ten.
Washington State: OL Brock Dieu [13.0] -- Left the week ten game with an undisclosed injury and was unable to return, playing just 13 snaps.
Colorado: QB Julian Lewis [12.7] -- Had to leave the field with an injury week ten. If healthy, he appears set to take over the reins. He is believed to be just fine.
Colorado: ILB Jeremiah Brown [12.6] -- Went down on a play in week ten game against Arizona. Tracking in case this lingers.
Illinois: OL Melvin Priestly [12.3] -- Left the week ten game against Rutgers with an injury. Awaiting an update.
Boston College: QB Grayson James [12.2] -- Suffered a hip pointer injury in week ten game against Notre Dame. Hampered him at the end and it may linger.
Georgia: DL Jordan Hall [12.0] -- Went down hard on the first defensive possession of week ten and would not return with a right knee injury.
Nebraska: OL Elijah Pritchett [12.0] -- Went down hard on a play week ten and played just half of his usual snaps. Tracking for lingering impacts.
Oregon State: OL Ryan Berger [11.9] -- Went to the injury tent in week ten game for a time. Tracking.
Florida International: QB Keyone Jenkins [11.5] -- Banged up in the week ten game. Could have returned, but it was a lower-body injury and hampered him enough. Tracking.
Houston: OL Demetrius Hunter [11.5] -- Down with an apparent left leg injury during week ten game against WVU.
Stanford: QB Ben Gulbranson [11.4] -- Injured knee in 2H vs Pitt, tracking for week 11.
Oregon State: QB Gabarri Johnson [11.1] -- Injured his foot in week ten game and was unable to return to action.
Notre Dame: CB Christian Gray [11.0] -- Practiced all week leading up to week ten but was determined he was not able to play.
Oregon State: RB Cornell Hatcher Jr. [10.9] -- Injured in the first quarter with some injury in week ten. Tracking for updates.
Texas State: S Bobby Crosby [10.8] -- Appeared to suffer a significant injury and was carted off the field week ten. Released from the hospital.
Louisiana: QB Lunch Winfield [10.8] -- Had to leave the week 10 game vs South Alabama late with an ankle injury.
Arkansas: DL Charlie Collins [10.6] -- Needed a lot of help getting off the field with a right leg injury. Not able to put any weight on it.
Duke: LB Elliott Schaper [10.4] -- Injured in the 2H vs Clemson, was able to return to game.
Duke: CB Landan Callahan [9.6] -- Injured in the 2H vs Clemson, was able to return to game.
Wyoming: QB Landon Sims [8.1] -- Went down with an apparent serious injury in week ten against San Diego State.
That’s our show for week ten Quick HITS. Thank you for subscribing and following along. More recap week ten recap content coming your way tomorrow and then we’ll move our focus looking ahead to week 11…