Week Three Quick HITS
This is our third edition of the Quick HITS, designed to get you a look back at the week that was in college football, including the top storylines, misleading/surprising results and impact injuries.
TOP STORYLINES ::::::
Clemson is Falling
Dabo Swinney’s squad now sits at 1-2 on the 2025 season, one that many predicted would have the Tigers in the mix to win the National Championship. Georgia Tech handed them their second loss of the season by nailing a 55-yard field goal as time expired in week three. Swinney has taken responsibility for the slow start. Still, as we examine the reasons for the issue, it stems from an ineffective offense (sound familiar), as star QB Cade Klubnik, who has struggled to get things rolling, has already committed four turnovers through the first three games. Sure, they lost two close games to good teams (LSU and Georgia Tech), but the rhetoric is just as much around the win, or the way they won against Troy in week two. They struggled in that game and needed a second-half rally to take down a Sun Belt team at home. It may surprise you that despite this start, this team is not done. They still have every opportunity to find their way into the ACC Title game, which would come with a ticket to the College Football Playoff again this season. Offensive Coordinator Garrett Riley now has a spotlight on him as this offense has talent, but they are not performing at this point.
SEC Quarterbacks Clicking
There was a storyline after week one that so many UNDERS hit as offenses were behind the defenses coming out of camp. While those results have evened out a bit as the season rolls on, it’s unsurprising that the offenses, as a whole, around college football, are catching up. We saw some impressive performances from the catalysts of every offense — the quarterback — in week three, particularly in the SEC. These include:
Joey Aguilar, Tennessee: The new Volunteer signal-caller faced his first actual test of the 2025 season, and passed with flying colors, going 24/36, for 371 yards and five total touchdowns against Georgia. It was a bit of a roller coaster as he struggled in the middle of the game, tossing two interceptions, but finished strong.
Taylen Green, Arkansas: It was a record-breaking game for Green, who became the first quarterback in program history to pass for over 300 yards and run for over 100 in the same game. He finished 22/35 for 305 yards passing, 115 rushing and two touchdowns.
Gunner Stockton, Georgia: Perhaps the most impressive part of Stockton’s performance in the win over Tennessee was the way he finished it. That included a huge 4th-down throw to London Humphreys for a 28-yard touchdown on fourth down and then converting the two-point try to tie it up at 38. He finished 23/31 for 304 yards and three total touchdowns.
Marcell Reed, Texas A&M: It wasn’t always beautiful for Reed, who led a comeback victory for the Aggies at Notre Dame. He finished 17/37 (just 46% completions), but managed big plays with 360 passing yards and two touchdown strikes. He added 37 rushing yards against a top defense.
Trinidad Chambliss, Ole Miss: After starter Austin Simmons re-aggravated his ankle injury early in the Arkansas game, Chambliss came in and led the offense to a win. He finished 21/29 for 353 yards and one passing touchdown, adding 62 rushing yards and two scores. It's certainly comforting to know that Chambliss is there to back up if anything lingers for Simmons this season.
Ty Simpson, Alabama: The calls for his job from the Florida State game in week one seem very far away at this point. He delivered a beautiful performance against Wisconsin in week three, going 24/29 (82.8%) for 382 yards and four touchdowns. The Tide deployed a much more aerial attack against the Badgers, and it worked.
We won’t mention DJ Lagway’s five-interception game against LSU in this portion of the article. So, it’s certainly not an ‘across-the-board’ improvement amongst all SEC quarterbacks.
LSU Defense is Real
Brian Kelly's move to bring Blake Baker back to Baton Rouge after a stint as defensive coordinator at Missouri has proven to be one of his best moves. The Tigers’ defense was dismal when he took over before the 2024 season, allowing over 415 yards per game, despite having plenty of talent on that side of the ball. Baker has come in and quickly resolved things, deploying that talent in an aggressive, ‘one gap’ defensive scheme, creating havoc and limiting those explosive plays that can wreck things. The Tigers have limited their three opponents to ten points or less in the first three games, and that includes Clemson and Florida. This most recent performance was highlighted by five interceptions of DJ Lagway (there it is again), disrupting things at every level. They will face tougher offenses later in the year, including Ole Miss in week five, but they have shown they can disrupt things and give the offense a chance to win those ball games.
Georgia Won; But Tennessee Showed
We talked about the quarterback performances in the Tennessee-Georgia showdown in Knoxville. It was a great game that came down to the end. The Vols led for much of the game and had a chance to put it away with a 43-yard field goal attempt that sailed wide right. That opened the door for the comeback. We also already mentioned Stockton’s clutch fourth-down touchdown toss to Humphreys and the subsequent two-point try that Zach Branch converted. A stop on either of those likely sets the Volunteers up for the big win. Even Kirby Smart was quick to admit that the Dawgs snuck out of there with a win they did not fully deserve, but that’s football. The post-game win expectancy numbers (which you’ll see more of below) captures this as well:
CFBD PGWE: Tennessee 83% — Georgia 17%
ESPN PGWE: Tennessee 76% — Georgia 24%
Black Sunday: Coaches Fired
It’s little surprise that two coaches from prominent programs were let go following disappointing starts to the season. UCLA has fired Deshaun Foster after a loss to New Mexico on Friday evening. The Bruins fell to 0-3 on the season, and their non-competitive nature in all three games, including one against a rebuilding Mountain West program, was just too much to take. Tim Skipper takes on a similar role to the one he held at Fresno State as a likely stopgap, interim head coach for the Bruins while they search for their next leader.
Meanwhile, things derailed quickly in Blacksburg, leading to the ousting of Brent Pry. The loss to in-state Old Dominion (again) was the straw that broke the camel’s back here. Pry came into the season on the hot seat and needed to show something quickly to hold on to the job. The talent is beleived to be there, but the ‘full quit’ mode shows that he was not the man for the job. The Hokies turn to a veteran former head coach in Philip Montgomery to lead them through the rest of the 2025 season.
MISLEADING RESULTS ::::::
The final score doesn’t always tell the whole story. We discuss utilizing as many data points as possible to identify the most comprehensive insights, rather than choosing between the two primary sources of post-game win expectancy (PGWE) and combining them. We will take collegefootballdata.com (CFBD) and ESPN (Bill Connelly’s SP+) numbers and find the average. We’ll also be able to analyze where those two data points differ and get an average. Here are the results from week two:
Willie Simmons’ FIU Panthers were impressive in their win over their in-state rivals FAU in week three. They won the game by ten points, but the PGWE says that it wasn’t really even that close.
CFBD PGWE: FIU 92%
ESPN PGWE: FIU 98%
The Bronco Mendenhall impact has come home to Utah. His Utah State Aggies have been so impressive right out of the gate, and that includes a 49-30 win over Air Force in week three. That looks like a bit of a dog fight on the scoreboard, but the game was never in doubt according to the PGWE numbers:
CFBD PGWE: Utah State 100%
ESPN PGWE: Utah State 99%
We have discussed that epic SEC battle between Tennessee and Georgia above, but if you skipped down to these results, it’s worth documenting again. The Vols lost the game, but they really shouldn’t have:
CFBD PGWE: Tennessee 83%
ESPN PGWE: Tennessee 76%
Hey, Auburn fans, in case you were worried about that 31-15 final score against South Alabama. You really shouldn’t be. According to PGWE numbers, it was never a close game:
CFBD PGWE: Auburn 100%
ESPN PGWE: Auburn 100%
Things are not great in Boulder these days. Houston not only beat the Buffaloes, 36-20, on Friday night. They really should have won by more:
CFBD PGWE: Houston 98%
ESPN PGWE: Houston 91%
Another one to mention that the final score gave off vibes of a close game, occured in Ames, Iowa. The Cyclones played around a bit with Arkansas State, letting them hang around, but this was not a close game:
CFBD PGWE: Iowa State 90%
ESPN PGWE: Iowa State 100%
That Tennessee/Georgia game wasn’t the only thrilling OT 44-41 victory recorded in week three. The Delaware Blue Hens pulled off the thrilling upset over UConn by that same tally. Also, similarly, the Huskies really should have pulled it out according to both PGWE metrics:
CFBD PGWE: UConn 76%
ESPN PGWE: UConn 73%
Much was made of the Clemson loss to Georgia Tech on the field goal at the gun. However, looking deeper into the numbers, the Tigers should have found a way to get out of Atlanta with a win. If you are looking for silver linings:
CFBD PGWE: Clemson 61%
ESPN PGWE: Clemson 68%
SURPRISING RESULTS ::::::
We like to compare the results against the final spread numbers to help identify which ones were the most eye-opening. The first week typically yields a substantial number of these. Here is what we have:
North Texas put a hurting on Washington State to the tune of a 59-10 final score. This was one of the most surprising (and obvious) spread differences, as the Mean Green closed as a 6.5-point favorite in this one.
UCLA’s performance against New Mexico was so bad that it led to the firing of their head coach, Deshaun Foster. That 35-10 loss as a 15.5-point favorite was one of the worst showings of week three.
Nobody is surprised by Michigan beating Central Michigan. However, nobody, including Vegas, saw this level of a beat down coming. The Wolverines bested the 27.5-point spread with a 60-point win, 63-3 over the Chips.
East Carolina beat up on Coastal Carolina, 38-0, in week three. The final spread in that game was just 7.5-points in favor of the Pirates.
South Carolina lost their starting quarterback LaNorris Sellers in-game and that contributed to this final score. But, still, Vanderbilt’s 31-7 win over the Gamecocks remains a surprising result. Shane Beamer’s squad closed as a 5.5-point favorite playing at home.
Additional ‘eye opening’ results:
Toledo 60 (-33.5), Morgan State 0
Memphis 28 (-4.5), Troy 7
Louisiana Tech 49 (-10), New Mexico State 14
Old Dominion 45 (+5.5), Virginia Tech 26
Stanford 30 (+13.5), Boston College 20
IMPACT INJURIES ::::::
Here is a list of the most impactful injuries we saw during or just prior to kickoff in week three. We will be tracking the news on each of these and updating throughout the week. On Thursday, we’ll be releasing a comprehensive “Injury Impact Report” that consolidates all these individual ailments into a team-level report.
Note: [ number in parentheses is the player rating - out of 20 ]
Be sure to check out our comprehensive injury report over at the website:
Kentucky: RB Dante Dowdell [15.8] -- Sustained a thigh injury during the week three game and was not able to return to the field. "Should be fine" for week four.
Iowa State: PK Kyle Konrardy [15.8] -- Missed an extra point and a field goal before heading to the injury tent in week three. Awaiting updates from the Cylones camp.
Navy: TE Cody Howard [15.5] -- Listed 'out' on the 9/13 gameday availability report pre-week three after suffering a cheap shot in the week two game against UAB. His status going forward remains under wraps.
South Carolina: QB LaNorris Sellers [15.3] -- Suffered a concussion in the week three game against Vandy; Beamer is 'optimistic' that he'll return for week four against Mizzou.
Minnesota: RB A.J. Turner [15.3] -- Helped off the field against Cal in week three and it did not look good. He joins already sidelined RB Darius Taylor on the Minnesota injury report in the running back room.
Notre Dame: CB Leonard Moore [15.2] -- Rolled his ankle in the week three game against A&M; those tend to linger, so we’ll keep an eye on his status for week four.
Pittsburgh: RB Desmond Reid [15.1] -- Suffered a lower-body injury in the Backyard Brawl week three and was not able to return to the field. He will have a bye week to heal up and get ready for Louisville in week five.
Kentucky: DB Terhyon Nichols [14.9] -- Suffered a thigh injury in week three game; was considered questionable to return. Played only 18 total snaps. Questionable going forward.
Michigan State: WR Nick Marsh [14.8] -- Injured early in the week three game against Youngstown State; called 'inconclusive' and will be re-evaluated today (Monday).
Iowa: DB Zach Lutmer [14.8] -- Visited the injury tent in week three; returned to the game but seemed a bit hobbled. Will track during the pre-week four, but should be okay.
TCU: RB Kevorian Barnes [14.7] -- Sonny Dykes says that the injury sustained in the week three game isn't serious and does not expect him to miss time.
Indiana: RB Lee Beebe Jr. [14.7] -- Suffered a leg injury in the blowout win over Indiana State in week three. Coach Cignetti said, “We’ll find out more Sunday or Monday, I guess.”
Auburn: WR Eric Singleton Jr. [14.6] -- Suffered a hip pointer in the week three game against South Alabama. Played through it and should be just fine going forward.
Rutgers: RB CJ Campbell Jr. [14.5] -- Had his left ankle worked on and needed help to get to the injury tent during week three game. Cart took him to the locker room. Does not look promising at this point.
Illinois: DB Xavier Scott [14.5] -- Injured in week three game; not expected to 'anything' according to Bret Bielema post-game.
Utah: S Rabbit Evans [14.4] -- Dressed for Cal Poly. Returned for week three but appeared to be re-injured. Suspected to be a season-ending injury. Ouch.
Michigan State: OL Luka Vincic [14.4] -- Appears to have suffered a ‘significant’ left knee injury in week three game. Awaiting official word on severity.
Rutgers: OL Tyler Needham [14.3] -- Had to leave the week three game with an injury. He was replacing Dontae Chin at left tackle and now the Scarlet Knights may be challenging their depth at an important spot on the offensive line.
Illinois: RB Aidan Laughery [14.0] -- Dealing with an injury that kept him out week three, but is expected to return for the Indiana game week four.
Georgia Tech: DB Zachary Tobe [14.0] -- Went down multiple times and they had to stop play week three against Clemson. Putting him on the injury report and will check back throughout the week for updates on his status.
Texas: RB CJ Baxter [14.0] -- Had to leave the week three game against UTEP with a hamstring injury. Enough to shut him down for the day. These hammys tend to linger and Baxter has an extensive injury history. This one is worth monitoring throughout the week.
Northwestern: DB Josh Fussell [14.0] -- Banged up in week three game was considered ‘questionable to return’ in game. He ended up at just 23 snaps, well below his average this season. We will track his status for week four.
Northwestern: DB Garner Wallace [13.9] -- Banged up in week three game after playing just seven snaps and did not return to the game. Tracking this one as it would impact things in the secondary for the Wildcats going forward.
Boston College: LB Daveon Crouch [13.9] -- Suffered a lower-body injury in the week three game against Arizona State. Missed the rest of the game. Would be a big loss for this unit going forward.
Houston: DB Marc Stampley II [13.8] -- Left the game after a collision in the fourth quarter of the week three game. Just leaving on here to see if there are any lingering impacts.
Clemson: DE Will Heldt [13.8] -- Went down against Georgia Tech enough to stop the game. Should be okay, but tracking in case it lingers.
Wyoming: TE John Michael Gyllenborg [13.7] -- Took a hit low late in the week three game against Utah and did not return.
Oklahoma: DL R Mason Thomas [13.7] -- Targeting call in second half of week three will have him sitting the first half of week four against Auburn. The Sooners plan to appear (but those are almost never successful).
Purdue: DB Crew Wakley [13.6] -- Entered this week ‘questionable’ and was not able to go. A big loss for this defense. Tracking for week four against Notre Dame.
Auburn: CB Jay Crawford [13.6] -- Hit knees with an opponent in week three; unsure of the details at this point. Likely sore, but absent structural damage, he should be find to go against OU in week four.
Arizona: LB Riley Wilson [13.6] -- Did not dress for the week three game rather unexpectedly. That is a big loss for the Wildcats’ defense. The full nature of the injury remains a mystery at this point.
Minnesota: DB Kerry Brown [13.5] -- Dealing with a back injury suffered in the week three game at Cal; was worked on by trainers. He has played under 20 snaps in the last two games now after posting a 53-snap game in week one.
UTEP: WR Kenny Odom [13.0] -- Banged up in the week three game against Texas; thought to be a shoulder injury. No further updates and definitely worth tracking.
Notre Dame: S Adon Shuler [13.0] -- Will miss first half of the week four game against Purdue after a targeting ejection in the second half against A&M.
LSU: LB West Weeks [12.9] -- Sustained a calf injury in the week three game. It’s not considered to be something that will keep him out long-term.
Iowa State: TE Gabe Burkle [12.9] -- Injured in the week the week three game against Arkansas State; has the bye week four to heal up. Awaiting updates on his status going forward.
West Virginia: S Darrian Lewis [12.9] -- Shaken up on a play and visited the medical tent in week three's Backyard Brawl. Came up with a big interception in the game and no post-game comments suggest he will miss any time.
Michigan State: RB Makhi Frazier [12.8] -- Injured week three; but head coach Jonathan Smith said "we're not anticipating anything long-term."
Massachusetts: CB TJ Magee [12.8] -- Suffered what appeared to be a serious injury during the week three game against Iowa.
UTEP: LB Joshua Rudolph [12.7] -- Carted off the field with an apparent injury in week three game.
Louisiana: S Maurion Eleam [12.5] -- Taken to the locker room at some point in the week three game and it not look good. Tracking.
Ole Miss: QB Austin Simmons [12.4] -- He started week three against Arkansas but re-aggravated the ankle injury early and is now very questionable moving forward.
Michigan State: OL Stanton Ramil [12.4] -- Left the week three game and was seen on the sidelines with no helmet and a wrap on his left hand. Worth tracking as he is the starting left tackle.
Buffalo: CB Charles McCartherens [12.4] -- Hobbled off the field during the week three game against Kent State. Returned, but tracking in case anything lingers.
Oregon State: OL Tyler Morano [12.3] -- Was listed 'questionable' for week three; ended up playing a reduced snap count (13). Leaving on as questionable moving forward.
Tulsa: WR Micah Tease [12.2] -- Listed as 'out' unexpectedly before the week three kickoff against Navy. We will see if this will continue to linger.
Kansas State: S Logan Bartley [12.1] -- Targeting call in second half of week three; will miss the first half of week four for the Wildcats.
Virginia Tech: S Sherrod Covil [12.1] -- Had some sort of injury that prevented him from playing week three. We are tracking for severity going forward.
Jacksonville State: RB Andrew Paul [11.9] -- Has an injury that didn't allow him to play against Georgia Southern. Tracking for severity going forward.
Illinois: WR Justin Bowick [11.8] -- Suffered an injury in the week three game against Western Michigan; Bielema says he's 'not clear' on his status going forward and worth tracking.
Auburn: DE Amaris Williams [11.7] -- Separated his shoulder in week three game against South Alabama. Apparently it ‘snapped back in’ but these shoulder woes tend to linger until properly fixed.
Virginia: RB Noah Vaughn [11.6] -- Exited the game and went to the locker room with an injury in week three. Unsure of the severity as of Monday morning.
Virginia Tech: OL Layth Ghannam [11.5] -- Suffered an in-game injury of some sort that forced him out for a time. Awaiting an update on his status going forward.
Troy: OL Garner Langlo [11.2] -- An injury timeout called during the week three game after Langlo went down. No updates, but that could be a good thing in this case.
Michigan State: WR Alante Brown [11.1] -- Injured in pre-game warm-ups; will be re-evaluated Monday.
Temple: OLB London Hall [10.4] -- Had to be helped off the field week three against OU.
Wake Forest: LB Frank Cusano [10.3] -- Went down in the second half of the week three game against NC State.
Washington State: LB Anthony Palano [10.1] -- Did not make the trip to Denton for week three against North Texas somewhat unexpectedly. They are hoping to have him back for the Apple Cup.
Illinois: OL Melvin Priestly [10.0] -- Injured in week three game; not expected to 'anything' according to Bret Bielema post-game.
Georgia Tech: OL Tana Alo-Tupuola [10.0] -- Shaken up on a play during week three. Could barely walk off the field. Tracking.
Rutgers: DB Kaj Sanders [9.6] -- Injured in the week three game against Norfolk State. Returned to the game. Not expected to be anything serious.
UTEP: TE Judah Ezinwa [9.0] -- Was down for a time during the week three game against Texas.
SMU: LB Kyle Ferm [7.7] -- Carried off the field in the week three game against MO State.
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