Week Two Model Plays: Saturday
We are BACK with the (CFBDm) Model plays for a jam-packed Saturday of college football action. We will check back on how we finished up week one and get the plays for week two.
Under. Under. Under.
We have a built-in early-season modifier to account for the trend of offenses needing a little more time to get rolling. It’s slight, but it makes a difference when you have 43 games on the board. The Model hit 61.6% in week one. That’s the good news. But, are we claiming victory over Vegas and say we have this thing right where we want it? Nah. Far from it.
Again, I want to be very clear about this point. I’m not trying to sell this as a sure-fire method of putting your kids through college. This is an entertainment piece, as we learn from our results and tweak it to get there someday. Is it winning right now, yes. Could it just as easily go 40% in week one? I sure hope not, but in reality, yes. So, we’ll remain transparent about our results and continually refine our algorithms, which will always need to evolve as the game does.
Bottom line on week one is that the run on early unders was the savior. We were under .500 on sides and gave up eight units. We then hit on 22 unders (78.6%) and went 9-7 in our 16 over plays. We likely won’t see that type of success again in any segment this season.
We break down the results in the chart below. We do this to try to get a feeling for where we may need some adjustments. We won’t make any changes, other than a slight pullback on the across-the-board defensive advantage, which will happen each week as we go through the season, and add an offensive edge once we get to the latter parts of the season.
The biggest issue I see from week one is that the Model may be a bit too heavy on the P4 over the G5. It went just 5-13 picking favorites (usually always the G4 school) and gave up 15 UNITS there. When previewing the week two results from the Model, we noticed that there again was a heavy disparity picking the favorites in the P4vG5 games and we made a slight adjustment — primarily for the top G5 schools to help bridge that gap a bit. We’ll monitor this closely in week two.
Overall, it’s a good start and if you ‘sprayed the board’ you would have enjoyed a lovely week one. Let’s see what we have for week two….
3-UNIT PLAYS ::::::
UConn at Syracuse OVER 57.5
The Model sees a couple of teams that will run fast and in a controlled dome environment, with their first tests out of the way, to get the kinks worked out. Syracuse played Tennessee in week one and moved the ball, so there is hope that Steve Angeli will continue to keep this Orange offensive unit towards the top, even with a ton of personnel changing over. On the other side, UConn’s veteran QB Joe Fagnano is a good decision-maker, and if the Huskies keep it close or even win the game, they will need to keep pace with their offense. Looking at the trench report, we see some advantages talent-wise on the offensive lines, and if both can control the lines of scrimmage, it will open up for each offense and set up a back-and-forth shootout to get this over.
DOUBLE-DOWN: Colorado (-23.5) and OVER 50.5 vs. Delaware
The Model really likes Coach Prime and the Buffaloes to avenge their week one loss to Georgia Tech in a big way at home against Delaware. The Blue Hens appear to be overmatched in terms of talent in this one. It doesn’t help that they lost their starting quarterback in their week one game against Delaware State, as Zach Marker will miss the rest of the season. Backup Nick Minicucci played admirably in his stead, but it was against one of the lowest FCS opponents. If the Buffs get out to a big lead, we should see backup, freshman sensation Juju Lewis, and he’s not going to be in there to hand it off. They want to see what he can do, and he may pour it on late to get this over the number. Warning: This could be an overreaction to a lack of FBS-level data on Delaware. But, we’re sticking with it.
Memphis (-13.5) vs. Georgia State
We are the least surprised that this showed up in this week two Model plays. All off-season, we’ve been watching that Georgia State roster, and the talent level seems to be dropping. Sure, they added a wild card in QB TJ Finley, who came in after his legal troubles left him scrambling for a place to play. Dell McGee brings him in and while there is a chance he’ll play and make a difference, there is just as much a likelihood he is rushed in there and it goes poorly. This is just as much about Memphis and how primed they look (again) for a big season. The Tigers worked out some kinks in week one against FCS Chattanooga. QB Brendon Lewis is in from Nevada (via Colorado) and has the weaponry around him to put up big numbers. This Panthers defense just doesn’t have the answers. For the second week, we’re fading this Georgia State defense (gave up 63 to Ole Miss last week). They head up the road to Memphis and we can expect a similar result.
Tulsa (-4.5) at New Mexico State
This one is more about the Aggies and their lack of talent than a song of praise for Tre Lamb’s squad, but this number doesn’t appear high enough to the Model. The Aggies have some injury concerns, including one to their best defensive player LB Tyler Martinez, who broke his hand and will be out for a couple of weeks. WR TK King is also ‘doubtful’ for this one, and it thins out their options in the passing game. Both squads had tune-ups against FCS schools. Tulsa took care of business against a solid Abilene Christian squad (after a slow start), while the Aggies struggled with Bryant, who is ranked towards the bottom of the lower level. That’s not enough to convince us, but when the numbers and data follow up, it’s something we must consider. Tulsa boasts a stable of running backs and a veteran QB in Kirk Francis, who will lead the way, and they’ll pull away late in Las Cruces.
2 UNIT PLAYS ::::::
We won’t mention that we had a two-unit play in the OVER last night for Louisville and JMU. Oh, we just did. What an impressive first-half defensive performance from Bob Chesney’s team. So, we are spotting a couple of units to the book today, but there is so much opportunity to make it up…
Iowa (+3.5) at Iowa State ::: This one is driven primarily by the data that suggests this Iowa offensive line is not to be messed with. In CyHawk, it always seems close, and even without RB Kamari Moulton available, the Hawkeyes should handle the line of scrimmage and wear down the Cyclones. They may not win the game, but the Model suggests we take the points. View Full Game Card »
SMU (-2.5) vs. Baylor ::: There are times that I shake my head at what our numbers are telling us. Still, when we look at this ‘Game Card’ matchup, it’s clear that the Mustangs have an advantage in a few key areas, but primarily a big offensive advantage, buoyed by a lot of ‘questionable’ injuries on the Baylor side, including DL Jackie Marshall and S Carl Williams IV. There is optimism that Marshall plays through a high ankle sprain, but he won’t be 100%. The Mustangs pull away late and gallop to a win, putting Dave Aranda squarely on the hot seat again. View Full Game Card »
Indiana (-35.5) vs. Kennesaw State ::: This number is REALLY high. I was hoping that there would be a little more buy-in from Vegas on the Owls start, a narrow loss at Wake Forest in week one. But, go figure, they didn’t bite. The Hoosiers should have won last week’s game against ODU by a lot more, and Curt Cignetti will get those things worked out against this Owls team that was impressive, but still very much overmatched in this one. Indiana rolls and covers that big number. View Full Game Card »
UConn (+6.5) at Syracuse ::: Our Model likes the trenches and the numbers really like this Huskies offensive line. Their ability to control the trenches and get some push will open things up for the passing game and Fagnano to take advantage. CB Devin Grant is ‘questionable’ and would be an impact loss if he is not able to play. There is just too much here to give the Huskies almost a touchdown. View Full Game Card »
Oregon (-27.5) vs. Oklahoma State ::: The uncertainty at the quarterback position, combined with a raucous atmosphere at Autzen Stadium all combine to make this one come out as a blowout in Eugene. The Ducks should have their way on both sides of the ball and the trench advantage is glaring when looking at this matchup side-by-side. View Full Game Card »
Kansas at Missouri OVER 50.5 ::: The Tigers and Jayhawks renew the “Border War” rivalry in Columbia and we can expect to see some offense, according to the Model. Dynamic quarterbacks Jalon Daniels and Beau Pribula will go back-and-forth in this one in CoMo. View Full Game Card »
Other 2 UNIT Plays:
UTSA (-4) and OVER 64.5 vs. Texas State
Middle Tennessee at Wisconsin UNDER 44.5
North Carolina (-13.5) at Charlotte
Army at Kansas State UNDER 47.5
San Diego State (+1.5) vs. Washington State
And, here is our full card for this wee
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