Week Two Quick HITS
This is our second edition of the Quick HITS, designed to get you a look back at the week that was in college football, including the top storylines, misleading/surprising results and impact injuries.
TOP STORYLINES ::::::
Florida Fallout
What transpired at the Swamp this weekend is something that dominated the headlines coming out of week two in college football. The South Florida Bulls’ 18-16 win over the Florida Gators was an upset with multi-tiered implications. There are two sides to this storyline. Since most will lead with what it means for the Gators and Billy Napier, we’ll start by talking about the Bulls. Alex Golesh has built this program back up to a national prominence and this signature road win against an SEC team in-state is only going to advance that narrative and put him at the top of the list for big-time programs. In the short-term it means that the team that has two out-of-conference Top 25 wins already this season is squarely in the College Football Playoff running. They are doing it on both sides of the ball, with the defense actually stealing some thunder from Golesh’s signature “go-go” offense. The difficult early-season schedule continues as they get Miami in South Beach next week. If they win that — this storyline only grows.
Meanwhile, the fallout for the Gators is focused on their head coach, Billy Napier. He was on the hot seat going into last season and managed to keep his job with a strong finish and a top recruiting class. With this loss, the heat is back on. The Gators have a relentless schedule and this was one of the wins they needed to grab to avoid having a potential losing season. They begin SEC play next week with a trip to Baton Rouge to play LSU. They have their two remaining non-conference games against in-state rivals Miami (week four) and Florida State (week 14). Not to mention the rest of the SEC-slate that features Texas, Georgia, Ole Miss and Tennessee. The Gators have the second most difficult schedule remaining according to our SOS+ numbers.
Blowouts Dominate
As you’ll see detailed below, one of the big storylines emerging from week two is the hurting that some of the top teams put on their opponents. Alabama tops the list with an absolute dismantling of UL-Monroe. The Crimson Tide took out all of their frustration, scoring on all 11 possessions — ten touchdowns and one field goal — en route to a 73-0 blowout of the Warhawks.
Oregon put a similarly eye-popping 69-3 win over Oklahoma State on the board. This isn’t some low-level G5 or FCS opponent, this is a Big 12 foe. So, what do we make of this? Is Oregon that special in 2025 or is Mike Gundy officially on his way out? It may be a little of both, but it is worth noting that the Ducks have won their first two games by a combined 128-16 score. This includes ZERO “pile on points,” a metric we are tracking exclusively at CFBDepth and is included in our ‘deserved wins’ (dWIN) metric. It accounts for how many points teams are ‘piling on’ in the fourth quarter of blowouts.
Sooner’s Statement Win
In one of the more anticipated matchups of week two, we saw the Oklahoma Sooners handle the Michigan Wolverines in Norman. This was a statement game for both teams as they embark on seasons in which each would like to see a step forward. It was likely more impactful for the home team as head coach Brent Venables was very much in need of some momentum in his tenure. Resurrecting the offense is the need to complete this resurgence for the once proud powerhouse, and they appear to have the catalyst in place to make that happen as quarterback John Mateer starred against a top defense, accounting for three touchdowns, doing it both through the air and on the ground. The Venables-led defense made life difficult for true freshman Michigan quarterback Bryce Underwood, who managed just 9/24 passing for 142 yards and was bottled up in the run game. The unit gave up just 288 total yards and tightened on third downs, holding the Wolverines to just 3/14 conversions. All of this is a recipe for success and now Venables is cooking with gas.
MISLEADING RESULTS ::::::
The final score doesn’t always tell the whole story. And, we’re taking a new approach to our week two analysis. We talk about we utilize as many data points as we can to help identify the most comprehensive insights. Instead of deciding between the two primary sources of post-game win expectancy (PGWE) and combine them. We will take collegefootballdata.com (CFBD) and ESPN (Bill Connelly’s SP+) numbers and find the average. We’ll also be able to analyze where those two data points differ and get an average. Here are the results from week two:
Colorado State’s 21-17 win over Northern Colorado is one of those that may raise some eyebrows when just looking at the final score. However, both metrics agree that this should not have been that close.
CFBD = 92.4% / ESPN = 99.5%
The Missouri State Bears picked up their first FBS level win over Marshall on the road in week two. They needed a late touchdown to make that happen. However, the result was even more damaging for the Herd as the PGWE numbers suggest it should have been worse.
CFBD = 91.2% / ESPN = 91.9%
The final score of Navy vs. UAB was just a separation of 14 points, with the Midshipmen winning 38-24. However, PGWE says that this game should not have been that close.
CFBD = 100% / ESPN = 98.9%
Oregon State dropped their second game in 2025, losing to Fresno State 36-27. That final score is a bit misleading as both metrics agree that the Beavers deserved to win that game.
CFBD = 88.1% / ESPN = 71.2%
Mizzou pulled away late in their Border War reenactment with Kansas on Saturday, winning 42-31. Due to some unfortunate bounces, that game appears much closer than it really should have been.
CFBD = 92.0% / ESPN = 96.2%
Boston College lost a thriller to Aidan Chiles and Michigan State in week two, 42-40. Both sources suggest that the Eagles should have won that game in East Lansing. CFBD was a bit more bullish on that than ESPN, but the agreement is there.
CFBD = 93.6% / ESPN = 75.4%
Cincinnati let Bowling Green score 17 second half points with some sloppy play and looking at this final score (34-20), you’d think it was a solid battle for the Bearcats. However, both metrics agree this should have been a blowout.
CFBD = 96.5% / ESPN = 99.4%
In another FBS vs. FCS game, we have a misleading close result. Southern Miss beat Jackson State 38-20. A solid 18-point win in Charles Huff’s first victory there. This game was never in doubt and should have been a larger deficit for the visiting Tigers.
CFBD = 98.6% / ESPN = 98.5%
We saw an epic game between Mississippi State and Arizona State in Starkville. It was a statement win for the Bulldogs and a question-raising one for the Sun Devils. It was just a 24-20 final. However, both PGWE metrics suggest that this should have been more lopsided.
CFBD = 87.2% / ESPN = 87.6%
This is the third installment of a close result against the FCS level as the Lindenwood Lions lost by just a touchdown to Appalachian State, 20-13. However, it could have been worse and, while still to close for comfort, it’s not a final score to look much more into.
CFBD = 86.0% / ESPN = 99.9%
More Observations:
The two metrics are relatively far apart on the difficult result for UMass, losing to FCS Bryant, 27-26. CFBD has it at 93.8% in favor of the Minutmen, while ESPN sees it more of a toss-up at 56.2%.
There were four teams who achieved a 60%+ aggregate PGWE but lost their game. We have mentioned three of them already — Oregon State, Boston College and UMass — the fourth is SMU, who blew a lead to Baylor and lost by three.
SURPRISING RESULTS ::::::
We like to compare the results against the final spread numbers to help identify which ones were the most eye-opening. The first week typically yields a substantial number of these. Here is what we have:
Alabama was fully expected to rebound from the week one loss in Tallahassee, but they put a hurting on ULM this weekend, out-performing the spread by a +38.5 margin in the 73-0 beatdown.
Speaking of whoopin’s — Oregon dismantled Oklahoma State to the tune of a 69-3 score. Yes, the Ducks were heavy favorites (-28.5), but that spread was surpassed by 37.5 points.
The third-highest spread difference is another outperformance by a big favorite as Nebraska beat Akron 68-0. That closing line was -33.5.
Vanderbilt’s win over Virginia Tech, 44-20 was the fourth largest spread difference of the week as the ‘Dores came in a 2.5-point underdog in Blacksburg.
The Illinois-Duke game got out of hand late and contributed to a surprising final score as the Fighting Illini won 45-19, despite coming in just a 2.5-point favorite.
Louisiana Tech’s performance in Baton Rogue against LSU is one that surprised many. That defense appears to be for real down there in Ruston. They lost just 23-7 to the mighty Tigers, but that was a +20.5 point spread win for the Bulldogs, having held a +36.5 line coming in.
As mentioned above, South Florida made their official statement this weekend by beating Florida in the Swamp. That 18-16 win bested the Vegas line that was giving them +18.5 points.
Washington State’s win over San Diego State, 36-13 was one that jumps off the page. The Cougars slight favorites (-2.5) going in, but pulled away from the Aztecs in week two.
IMPACT INJURIES ::::::
Here is a list of the most impactful injuries we saw during week two. We will be tracking the news on each of these and updating throughout the week. On Thursday, we’ll be releasing a comprehensive “Injury Impact Report” that consolidates all these individual ailments into a team-level report.
Ole Miss: QB Austin Simmons [13.1] -- Suffered a 'minor, little injury' in week two game against Kentucky. Expected to be okay for week three.
Oregon: OL Alex Harkey [16.2] -- Injured in-game week two and looked in some discomfort on the ground with a leg injury.
Cincinnati: DL Dontay Corleone [15.9] -- Went to the locker room in the week two game after a left ankle or foot injury forced him out after the opening drive.
Minnesota: RB Darius Taylor [15.9] -- Came up limping early in week two game against NW State. Doesn't look good.
West Virginia: RB Jahiem White [14.8] -- Banged up in week two game against Ohio. Tracking for severity.
Army: DL Kody Harris-Miller [14.7] -- Announced 'out' pre-game week two and missed the K-State game. Severity unknown.
Michigan: DB Brandyn Hillman [14.6] -- Jogged off the field and into the medical tent after sustaining an injury in week two. Returned to the game.
Michigan: TE Marlin Klein [14.1] -- Suited up with a thick wrap over his right foot and did not play in week two. A significant loss for the offense.
Michigan State: QB Aidan Chiles [14.0] -- Just mentioning a late-game injury that Chiles says would not have kept him out if there were OT. Just tracking.
Indiana: P Mitch McCarthy [13.7] -- Listed as 'out' prior to week two kickoff. Starting punter. Exact injury not specified yet.
Oklahoma: DB Gentry Williams [13.7] -- DNP week one. Visited the injury tent briefly in week two.
Texas A&M: QB Marcel Reed [13.6] -- Injured late in the Utah State game week two. Believed to be okay.
Georgia State: QB TJ Finley [13.6] -- Banged up in his debut, was listed 'questionable' to return. Tracking for severity.
Liberty: WR Elijah Canion [13.5] -- Listed as 'questionable' prior to week two kickoff.
South Carolina: DB Jalon Kilgore [13.5] -- DNP week two against South Carolina State. Assumed injury of some sort. No word on severity.
BYU: DE Viliami Po'uha [13.4] -- Went to the medical tent during week two game. No word on severity of the injury.
Michigan: OL Giovanni El-Hadi [13.4] -- Left the week two game in the second quarter with a left foot injury. Did not return.
LSU: TE Trey'Dez Green [13.3] -- Sustained an injury in week two game against LA Tech. Seen on crutches during the game. Awaiting an MRI.
Oklahoma State: CB Cam Smith [13.1] -- Injured in the week two game. Tracking for severity.
Minnesota: DL Jalen Logan-Redding [13.1] -- Went down in week two game and needed assistance off the field. Went to the injury tent. Tracking.
Tulsa: QB Kirk Francis [13.0] -- Suffered a concussion late in the first half in week two against New Mexico State. He will be evaluated throughout the week.
Oklahoma State: RB Trent Howland [12.9] -- Went down in the second quarter against Oregon and did not return. Added as questionable going forward.
Arizona State: RB Kyson Brown [12.8] -- Went to the locker room with an apparent injury in the week two game.
San Diego State: OL Ross Ulugalu-Maseuli [12.6] -- Was down on the field for a time in week two.
West Virginia: WR Jaden Bray [12.5] -- Carted off the field week two and the injury looks serious.
Auburn: K/P Towns McGough [12.5] -- Suffered an ankle injury in week two game.
Kentucky: QB Zach Calzada [12.4] -- Was dinged up in week two against Ole Miss.
Michigan: DB Zeke Berry [12.3] -- Helped off the field following a left leg injury in the third quarter of week two.
Charlotte: OL Jonny King [12.3] -- Mentioned to have suffered some sort of injury in week two against UNC.
Wyoming: QB Kaden Anderson [12.2] -- Took a big hit in week two game, left the medical tent under his own power and went to the locker room.
Texas: WR DeAndre Moore Jr. [12.1] -- Took a trip to the medical tent during the week two game. No word on if it was a serious injury or not.
Liberty: RB Vaughn Blue [11.5] -- Listed as 'questionable' prior to week two kickoff.
Rice: CB Khary Crump [11.5] -- Sustained an injury in week two game that forced him out of action.
UTEP: MB Kam Thomas [11.4] -- Sat out week two game against UT-Martin. Practiced the week leading up and couldn't go.
Georgia: TE Ethan Barbour [11.4] -- Suffered an injury in the week two game. Tracking for severity.
Baylor: DL DK Kalu [10.9] -- Injured early in week two game against SMU.
Memphis: LB Drue Watts [10.9] -- Limped off the field after a non-contact injury in week two game against Georgia State.
LSU: OT Weston Davis [10.8] -- Sustained a minor injury in the week two game against LA Tech. Awaiting word on severity.
Fresno State: LB K'vion Thunderbird [10.6] -- Targeting penalty in second half of week two game will have him out for the first half of week three against Southern.
New Mexico State: OL BJ Tolo [10.6] -- Walked off the field gingerly in week two game.
Appalachian State: OL Tyriq Poindexter [10.4] -- Not dressed for week two. Tracking for week three.
Virginia: TE Sage Ennis [9.8] -- Made a trip to the medical tent during week two game. He has a significant injury history.
Oklahoma State: TE Quinton Stewart [9.7] -- Rolled up on during Oregon game and was eventually carted off.
Liberty: DL Kam Cullins [9.1] -- Listed as 'questionable' prior to week two kickoff.
Fresno State: DL Deijon Laffitte [8.8] -- DNP week two as a late-breaking injury prior to kickoff. Tracking for severity and week three status.
Georgia State: DE Sir Mells [8.5] -- Suffered an injury in the week two game against Memphis and was ruled out for the remainder.
Missouri State: OL Cristian Loaiza [7.6] -- Went down with an injury late in the week two win over Marshall. Tracking for severity.
Rice: P Alex Bacchetta [5.8] -- Suffered a late injury in week two; expected to be okay after a trip to the medical tent.
Louisville: LB Stanquan Clark [15.6] -- Left the field on a cart with a lower leg injury in week two against JMU. Doesn't sound promising.
Northwestern: RB Cam Porter [13.7] -- Was banged up late in the week two game against WIU and was ruled out for the remainder. Injury woes continue for him.
Maryland: DB Jamare Glasker [13.3] -- Went to the blue medical tent in the fourth quarter of the week two game and did not return.
Northwestern: DL Anto Saka [12.9] -- Went to the blue tent to get looked at in the second quarter of the week two game against WIU.
Northern Illinois: DE Jalonnie Williams [11.9] -- Helped off the field in the 4th quarter. Unclear if he returned.
Oklahoma: DB Gentry Williams [13.7] -- DNP week one. Visited the injury tent briefly in week two.
More to come! Thanks for following…