Week Two: Saturday Plays

Here we are. A full slate of Saturday games here in week two. We put the model to work and here is what it came up with...

Disclaimer: Remember, we are still in our infancy of building this model (together) and we do not recommend putting anything of significant value to you on these outcomes. We are putting these out to help track our progress and make tweaks to the model and underlying algorithms/weights to get this to a “winning” model. You can learn more about our purpose by checking out our launch post:

Quick Friday Recap: 2-1 (Even units) — SMU is just not playing to potential. We’re going to have to blacklist them (or, will Vegas do that for us?). At least the defenses showed up and got that well UNDER. Duke came through in a rock fight. Apologies to those who had the right play on the UNDER in that one. That’s life in this here game. We have a lot more on the Friday action in today’s DeptHITS, so check that out.

And, away we go…

|||||| 4 UNIT PLAY

We have one four (4) unit play this week. Interestingly enough, it is the Army Black Knights coming in as the top play.

Play: Army (+3.5) at Florida Atlantic — 12:00 PM EST

Looking at the numbers driving this and it is clearly the running game differences. We all know that Army is going to run it heavy and we have the Owls as the 101st ranked rush defense. FAU gave up a 4.8 average to Michigan State a week ago and if not for untimely turnovers (both traditional and on downs, the Spartans should have won that more handily.) The line is taking into account a really solid performance (on paper) by Tom Herman’s team. On the other side, the Black Knights come in as a top 25 (!) talent level on rush defense. If they can bottle up Cam Fancher and make him throw the ball, this could get slightly out of hand. The model has Army winning this one handily:

|||||| 3 UNIT PLAYS

Georgia Tech at Syracuse UNDER 61 - 12:00 PM EST

Sure, Syracuse has a pretty dynamic offense and Georgia Tech hasn’t seen something to it’s potential (including Florida State, apparently). But the model thinks that the defenses on both sides will be able to hold things down and keep this under the number. We'll just need to avoid the dreaded double overtime.

South Carolina at Kentucky UNDER 42.5 - 3:30 PM EST

We’re loving our under’s early in 2024. This one on the surface worries me, but we’ll go with it. The ratings/rankings really like Kentucky to smother the Gamecocks and keep this one down. We have the Wildcats at an overall defensive rank of 12th in the nation. We’ll lean in on that and see what happens.

Michigan State (+9.5) at Maryland - 3:30 PM EST

The model was bullish on the Spartans last week against FAU and it didn’t come through. Upon further review, it really should have. As mentioned earlier in this write-up, Sparty had some untimely turnovers and the final post-game win expectancy number at collegefootballdata.com was 86% and converts to closer to an 11-point win, than the six point advantage they ended up with. It should be noted that the line movement in this one is interesting and we know why. It opened right where it is (9.0) but then dipped to 7.5 before news came out of some injuries in the Spartans secondary. You can view those injuries on the Michigan State Injury & Status tab on their depth chart page » The line jumped back up and our analysis doesn’t have the impact of those injuries warranting the points in this case.

Florida International vs. Central Michigan UNDER 51.5

Yet another under. And this one is less about the defenses and more about the offenses. The defenses aren’t great either, so this will be one that can help us on our weighting going forward.

UCF (-21.5) vs. Sam Houston State - 6:30 PM EST

You will be seeing the Knights on here a lot. Our ratings/rankings have them as one of the most talented teams in the country. They have a solid coaching staff and if they play to their potential, they should straight RUN inferior teams. Sam Houston got a nice win against a very mediocre Rice team a week ago and none of that really matters to our model. We are focused on the here and now.

Wake Forest (-1.5) vs. Virginia - 7:00 PM EST

Simply put, the ratings/rankings have Wake still possessing a fun, fast offense. Sure, they did it against FCS North Carolina A&T in week one; but the underlying numbers say they can keep it up against the Cavaliers. This one may be close, but the model sees the Deacs pulling away.

Georgia Southern at Nevada - UNDER 58.5 - 7:00 PM EST

How in the world could the model flip to the other side on Georgia Southern after an easy win a week ago in that shootout with Boise State? Again, this model is based in the premise of not over-reacting as much to recent results, but sticking to the talent levels and other factors at this very moment. Nevada’s defense has shown to be much, much better than originally thought and it is showing in their underlying player data that feeds our player ratings, which feeds our model. Here is a quick look at how in just two weeks (against a very good SMU offense and Troy), they have improved. Still, they are not world beaters but they are on their way…

Overall Defense: 130th to 114th
Run Defense: 121st to 103rd
Pass Defense: 133rd to 106th

North Carolina State (+10) vs. Tennessee - 7:30 PM EST

This one will be very unpopular with the public. Another line going in the other direction. This is a great case for the sway of public opinion going against what our numbers tell us. This game being in Raleigh is a big deal and definitely plays a role. I’m hesitant to put this out there, but we actually have the Wolfpack winning this game 33-30. Again, we’re learning and this will be a fun one to track.

San Diego State (+6) vs. Oregon State & OVER 54 - 10:30 PM EST

Finally, an OVER! The Aztecs do have some injury concerns to consider after losing a starting offensive lineman, but the model takes all of that into consideration and will certainly take the points. You can consider a moneyline play on Sean Lewis’ squad too apparently.

Other Plays (2 UNITS and below):

• Michigan (+7.5) vs. Texas - 1 UNIT

• Michigan vs. Texas UNDER 42.5 - 1 UNIT

• Arkansas (+7.5) at Oklahoma State - 2 UNITS

• Tulane (+9.5) vs. Kansas State - 1 UNIT

• Memphis vs. Troy OVER 57.5 - 1 UNIT

• FAU vs. Army UNDER 42.5 - 1 UNIT

• Northern Illinois (+27.5) at Notre Dame - 2 UNITS

• Notre Dame vs. Northern Illinois UNDER 44.5 - 1 UNIT

• Baylor (+14.5) at Utah - 2 UNITS

• Iowa (-3) vs. Iowa State - 1 UNIT

• Iowa vs. Iowa State UNDER 35 - 2 UNITS

• South Carolina (+9) at Kentucky - 1 UNIT

• Maryland vs Michigan State UNDER 44.5 - 1 UNIT

• Eastern Michigan (+24.5) at Washington - 1 UNIT

• Eastern Michigan at Washington UNDER 47.5 - 1 UNIT

• UMass (+17.5) at Toledo - 1 UNIT

• Louisville vs. Jacksonville State UNDER 56.5 - 1 UNIT

• North Carolina (-22.5) vs. Charlotte - 1 UNIT

• Navy (-13.5) vs. Temple - 2 UNITS

• UTSA (-1) at Texas State - 1 UNIT

• Middle Tennessee (+43) at Ole Miss - 1 UNIT

• Middle Tennessee at Ole Miss UNDER 63 - 2 UNITS

• Florida International (+5.5) vs. Central Michigan - 1 UNIT

• Virginia Tech (-20.5) vs. Marshall - 2 UNITS

• East Carolina (+1.5) at Old Dominion - 1 UNIT

• South Florida (+30.5) at Alabama - 1 UNIT

• South Florida at Alabama UNDER 63.5 - 1 UNIT

• Illinois (+5.5) vs. Kansas - 2 UNITS

• Air Force (-5) vs. San Jose State - 2 UNITS

• Air Force vs. San Jose State UNDER 44.5 - 2 UNITS

• Tulsa (+7.5) at Arkansas State - 1 UNIT

• Tulsa at Arkansas State UNDER 65.5 - 2 UNITS

• UL-Monroe (+13) vs. UAB - 1 UNIT

• Colorado (+7) at Nebraska - 1 UNIT

• Colorado at Nebraska UNDER 56 - 2 UNITS

• Houston (+27.5) at Oklahoma - 1 UNIT

• Houston at Oklahoma UNDER 49.5 - 1 UNIT

• Clemson (-16.5) vs. Appalachian State - 1 UNIT

• Clemson vs. Appalachian State UNDER 53 - 1 UNIT

• Boise State at Oregon UNDER 60.5 - 1 UNIT

• New Mexico State (+22.5) vs. Liberty - 2 UNITS

• Mississippi State (+5.5) at Arizona State - 2 UNITS

• Mississippi State at Arizona State OVER 58.5 - 2 UNITS

• San Diego State (+6) vs. Oregon State - 2 UNITS

• USC (-28.5) vs. Utah State - 1 UNITS

• USC vs. Utah State UNDER 63 - 2 UNITS

We’ll see how this goes and be back with the results and (more importantly) the analysis of those results. Thank you for following along and enjoy your Saturday full of college football.