CFB DeptHITS: Friday, September 27
Let's get caught up on some impact availability updates from the last 24 hours. We'll also list the top "questionable" players heading into a packed week five and a programming note.
We make hundreds of little tweaks to the 134 live FBS depth charts over at CFBDepth.com every day. This part of the feature is designed to pull out the “bigger” ones so you can see the impact cream rise to the top…enjoy.
USC ::: DT Bear Alexander will redshirt and likely enter the transfer portal this off-season. He is unhappy with his playing time.
Further: A bit of a shame here. Alexander transferred over from Georgia a couple of seasons back for seemingly the same reason. He was playing 24 snaps/game and that was just not enough. New DC D’Anton Lynn believes strongly in a good rotation to keep players fresh and performing. It doesn’t help that Alexander’s production has slipped each season as well and his PFF grades show that the non-recorded stats performance is also taking a dive. He’ll re-surface some place, but we can officially put him in the “disappointment” category for now.
Michigan State ::: WR Jaron Glover will make his anticipated return week five after an injury-related absence. Fellow WR Nick Marsh is a game-time decision. Getting him back too would give QB Aidan Chiles the full arsenal in the passing attack.
Further: They will need everything they have as they take on the Buckeyes in East Lansing this week. Getting Glover back doesn’t just help the passing game; it creates more of a threat to help open up some running lanes for Nate Carter and Kay’Ron Lynch-Adams. The true freshman Marsh is another big part of this offense and would be a bonus. Our (CFBDm) model has the Spartans still mustering just 12 points against the stout Ohio State defense tomorrow.
Texas A&M ::: We were tracking a possible injury to DE Shemar Stewart after he went down in week four. Good news is that he does not show up on the week five availability report, so we'll remove him and put at full speed for week five.
Further: Good news for the defensive line depth for the Aggies. We add players to an “injury” tracker based on any news we have of players “going down” or clearly leaving the previous weeks’ game with an injury. This one looked pretty bad; but he has rallied and appears set to take the field against Arkansas.
Arkansas ::: CB Jaylon Braxton will miss week five with the lingering bone bruise injury. S Hudson Clark, however, has been upgraded to "probable" and looks ready to return.
Further: This is a bit of a wash as they confirm Braxton out another week, but get back Clark.
Oklahoma ::: In an update to the availability report for the Sooners, WR Deion Burks and Andrel Anthony join Nic Anderson as "out" for week five. New starter Michael Hawkins Jr. does not have a full arsenal of weapons this week and he'll need to utilize those legs.
Further: Yeah, this is not great. Hawkins is missing three of his top four options (and four of six). Brenen Thompson may be busy, but also, Auburn can key on stopping him and force a relative unknown to step up in the passing game. If they are unable and can force a one-dimensional attack, they’ll bring down some additional resources into the box to stop the run and contain Hawkins. If that happens, the Sooners have another dismal offensive performance and likely a second straight “L”.
Kentucky ::: The Wildcats availability report updated RB Chip Trayanum as "out" for week five after we had heard from HC Mark Stoops that he was cleared to play. He must need a little more time. Also, CB Maxwell Hairston was added in the Thursday version as "questionable" and would be an impact loss on the defensive side.
Further: Shoot. We thought by him being “cleared” we’d get to see the former Ohio State back in the fold for week five. Not yet. Chances are there are some conditioning and/or a small set back that led to this decision. We’ll keep an eye on him early next week for any news. He would add a nice option to pair up with Demie Sumo-Karngbaye in that backfield.
LSU ::: WR Chris Hilton Jr. is listed as "probable" again -- is this the week we finally see the talented wide receiver for the Tigers?
Further: I’ll believe it when I see it. We’ve seen this story before and then he just hasn’t quite been able to get over the hump. We’ll be tracking him leading into the game.
|||||| KEY INJURY TRACKER - WEEK 5
Here is a quick look at the top injuries we are tracking as “questionable” heading into week five games. As always, you can stay tuned to our full-on Injury & Status report page at the website to keep up and sort by team. For more details on injuries and statuses, click on the “Injury & Status” tab on each team page.
Auburn: PK Alex McPherson - Status: Questionable // Opponent: vs. Oklahoma
Latest: Still working back from a gastrointestinal illness.
Texas: QB Quinn Ewers - Status: Questionable // Opponent: vs. Mississippi State
Latest: Suffered an abdomen & oblique strain in week 3; missed week 4 - questionable.
UTSA: WR De'Corian Clark - Status: Questionable // Opponent: at East Carolina
Latest: Continues to look ready to return to the field, but never seems to...remains questionable.
Clemson: DE Peter Woods - Status: Questionable // Opponent: vs. Stanford
Latest: Injured in week two game; remains questionable heading into week five.
Ohio State: DT Tyleik Williams - Status: Questionable // Opponent: at Michigan State
Latest: Sat out week four; questionable for week five.
Navy: CB Ira Oniha - Status: Questionable // Opponent: at UAB
Latest: DNP week four; questionable to return for week five
Clemson: RB Phil Mafah - Status: Questionable // Opponent: vs. Stanford
Latest: Injured in week four game against NC State; likely not too serious
Kentucky: CB Maxwell Hairston - Status: Questionable // Opponent: at Ole Miss
Latest: Added as "questionable" to the week five availability report
Utah: QB Cameron Rising - Status: Questionable // Opponent: vs. Arizona
Latest: Cleared to play (finger) but may not be 100% and ready to be under center
Alabama: S Malachi Moore - Status: Questionable // Opponent: vs. Georgia
Latest: Suffered a head injury in week three; has a bye week to get ready
Syracuse: CB Greg Delaine - Status: Questionable // Opponent: vs. Holy Cross
Latest: Working back in practice pre-week four but did not go; remains questionable
Louisville: DT Jordan Guerad - Status: Questionable // Opponent: at Notre Dame
Latest: Yet to play in ‘24; no news on his status for week 5 against the Irish
Penn State: LB Keon Wylie - Status: Questionable // Opponent: vs. Illinois
Latest: Yet to play in 2024; injury related. Questionable until he sees the field.
Purdue: CB Nyland Green - Status: Questionable // Opponent: vs. Nebraska
Latest: DNP week 3 or 4; remains questionable.----
Michigan: TE Colston Loveland - Status: Questionable // Opponent: vs. Minnesota Latest: Sat week four but is trending towards being able to go week 5 vs. Minnesota.
|||||| PROGRAMMING NOTES
If you happen to be following long with our (CFBDm) Model development, we have some news on that front. Earlier this week, we decided we needed to make a material change to our player ratings system. The primary change is a heavier weight on “current year” on-field performance. We definitely still take into account past performance, but the impact is lessened. The prompt for this update is that we just weren’t quite seeing the team ratings/rankings catching up quick enough to what we are seeing on the field. We feel this edit has improved this.
So, the player ratings feed the team ratings/rankings, which feeds our Model as a primary source of data at every position group. Thus, we are going to retire “v1” of the Model and move into “v2”.
v2 also has another couple of adjustments based on what we saw from v1 — again, always learning — and we’ll detail those out in our “Model Plays” post tomorrow which will feature our game projection for EVERY game, not just our suggestions. This is in response to some paid subscriber requests. So, stay tuned for that.
THURSDAY MODEL RESULTS ::: We posted a note on here last night stating that these changes didn’t calm the love affair with the Army and that the model had a projection of 34-9 in favor of the Black Knights. So, that was a winner.
FRIDAY MODEL PROJECTIONS ::: Since we won’t get the full “lot” of the model simulations out until tomorrow, we’ll post tonight’s action here:
Miami (FL) 32, Virginia Tech 18 — Plays: Virginia Tech +17.5 (0 units) & UNDER 54 (0 units)
Rutgers 27, Washington 22 — Plays: Rutgers -2 (0 units) & OVER 44.5 (0 units)
We’ll go into more detail tomorrow on the Model.
That’s our show for today. Thanks for following along. Please subscribe and share!
