CFB DeptHITS: Monday, January 20
Our season comes to a close tonight with the CFP National Championship. We have for you our final "quick preview" and full 'Game Card' and other important information from around our game.
Today, we’ll conclude what was our first full season of coverage at CFBDepth.com — it' was a wild ride. We added a few new features and our coverage and resulting analysis is only going to continue to grow. In a day in our game that features so much player movement, we really shine in the off-season. We’ll be providing “State of the Chart” updates throughout this break in on-the-field action and culminate with our first launch of the “State of the Chart” magazine — a publication that you will want/need as camps begin to open. More to come on that, but for now, let’s get you the last "quick preview” and ‘Game Card’ for the Notre Dame vs. Ohio State National Championship game and other news to know…enjoy!
[ Note: The number in the brackets is our CFBDepth player rating, out of 20 ]
|||||| CFP NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP
Quick Preview: Well, we’ve made it. As have the Notre Dame and Ohio State football teams, who survived the gauntlet and earned the right to play for the CFP National Championship. With so much scrutiny and focus on this one game, it’s difficult to find many advantages or edges in this matchup. Vegas usually nails this one. However, we want to take a closer look and see if we can get to play for this final game of the season.
The talent levels are both through the roof here and Ohio State has just the most talented rotation in the game. That has been the case all season. The Buckeyes are also very healthy and can take full advantage of that talent level. The Irish are also getting their key players back, but do have an injury impacting a shift on the offensive line as Anthonie Knapp [12.9] will miss the game with a high ankle ailment. They announced they will be shifting Charles Jagusah [12.8] to start at right tackle and looking at his player-level data from PFF, he is up for the task as a pass blocker, but may leave a little to be desired opening lanes in the running game. It will be interesting to see if the offensive game plan shifts based on this. The good news for the Irish is that the runner that will be hitting those holes is Jeremiyah Love [18.1], their star back who has been banged up recently, but continues to play through it. WR Beaux Collins [12.5] is also said to be feeling ‘100 percent’ and ready to go. Frankly, the Irish will need every possible available weapon to keep this one within striking distance.
The two keys we are seeing in our ‘Game Card’ is that of a strange below average offensive line rating (especially in pass protection). We all know that the Buckeyes offensive line is one of the best in the game, however, could it just be a matter of time before they are taken advantage of? Could Notre Dame have those horses on the defensive front to cause big-time havoc in the backfield? On the flip side, this Buckeyes defense is both smothering and safe. They don’t give up explosive plays. Meanwhile, the Irish have shown a slight glitch in that area, ranking 40th in explosive plays allowed on defense. If there is an offense that is a big play waiting to happen…well, it’s the Buckeyes. Keep an eye on that. One big, chunk play can turn things quickly.
Overall, this is the Buckeyes advantage with full units ranking 1st (defense) and 2nd (offense). Tough to top that. Though, Notre Dame’s cumulative units also rank in the top 10 for each as well.
Model Simulation: Ultimately, the model sim puts us right about in line with what Vegas sees happening. The Buckeyes defense smothers Notre Dame and they get enough from the explosive offense to get a victory by eight. Both the spread and line are very close to what is posted, so we don’t have an official play, but the lean would be to the Irish keeping this one within that 9.5 points and it going UNDER 45.5.
|||||| THE HITS
Plenty happening off-the-field and we’ll get you what you need to know right here with the hits…
Wisconsin ::: We'll log this one under Wisconsin, but this really involves a lot more parties. Wisconsin has decided to take legal recourse against Xavier Lucas, who did not honor his NIL deal with Wisconsin Athletics and dis-enrolled from the school and is planning to attend Miami next season. Wisconsin has said they have credible evidence that Miami tampered with Lucas and that is really only half of this story. All of that said, this one is far from over and will have many implications for the future of NIL. We’ll be keeping an eye on this one.
Ole Miss ::: The Rebels win the Harrison (Trey) Wallace III [14.4] sweepstakes as he commits to transfer to Ole Miss from Penn State. Wallace battled through injuries early and late in the season but remained the unquestioned number two option (behind only Tyler Warren) in the Nittany Lions passing attack. He joins a crowded room but should earn meaningful looks for Lane Kiffin and company in 2025.
Arizona ::: The Bearcats get some good news as CB Marquis Groves-Killebrew [11.2] has announced his withdrawal from the portal and return to Tucson. He had committed to Nebraska and had already been at both Louisville and Texas A&M in his career thus far.
Tennessee ::: The Volunteers land another solid running back as 2024 Duke starter Star Thomas [14.1] is headed to Knoxville. The road to the Vols included many stops, including a JUCO, then off to New Mexico State before earning meaningful carries after injuries in the Blue Devils backfield made it possible. He has earned a higher rating and now joins DeSean Bishop [15.3] and Peyton Lewis [13.8] in this backfield that is losing a couple of depth pieces through the portal with Cam Seldon (Virginia Tech) and Khalifa Keith (Appalachian State) moving on.
North Carolina ::: Bill Belechick and the Tar Heels get a couple of solid additions via the portal. First, CB Thaddeus Dixon [15.5] is coming to town via Washington. He was one of the better defensive back performers for the Huskies and will head to Chapel Hill with two seasons left.
Then, they get OL Daniel King [14.2] who left Troy after a solid run with the Trojans. He split time between both right tackle and right guard this season and that versatility is a big draw for anybody. He'll find a starting spot at either of those positions. This roster is being strengthened each day.
West Virginia ::: EDGE Jimmori Robinson [15.3] has picked his destination and it is Morgantown, WV. The former UTSA Roadrunner picked up nine sacks in 2024 and was highly sought after in this portal. He chooses to join up with Rich Rod and it is the first pick defensive line pickup after a lot of focus has been put on building up that secondary thus far.
Kentucky ::: The Wildcats were looking for an upgrade at left tackle over Marques Cox [11.5]. It appears they have a candidate in New Mexico State transfer Shiyazh Pete [13.3] coming to Lexington via the portal.
Western Michigan ::: Big news for the Broncos as they'll be holding on to their star tight end, Blake Bosma [12.9]. He explored the portal and decided to return to Kalamazoo. He went from a relative unknown recruit to an All-MAC performer. He finished with 37 grabs for 403 yards and six touchdowns for the Broncos in 2024.
East Tennessee State ::: QB Cade McNamara, the former Michigan/Iowa signal caller is stepping down to the FCS level to play out his final season of eligibility. An injury limited his attempts to play in 2024, thus giving him an added year. In order to ensure he would be on the field for it, he joins the ETSU Buccaneers for 2025.
Memphis ::: The Tigers get a big portal withdrawal on the defensive side of the ball as EDGE William Whitlow Jr. [14.1] has decided to return to Memphis in 2025. He racked up six sacks and was arguably the best player on that side of the ball for this team.
Toledo ::: WR Trayvon Rudolph [13.0] is switching MAC schools as he is going from NIU over to Toledo. This after de-committing from San Diego State earlier this week due to a "change in circumstances" with the Aztecs. The Rockets need to replace their top wide out from 2024, Jerjuan Newton [15.] and his 71 catches for over 1,000 yards. The hope is that Rudolph, who racked up 37 catches this year after missing a couple of games due to injury, will come in and team up with Junior Vandeross III [14.8] as the top two here in this offense that will undergo a change at quarterback.
USC ::: The Trojans defensive staff gets a veteran added as Rob Ryan has joined on as Assistant Head Coach for Defense and Linebackers coach. He was most recently a Senior Defensive Assistant for the Las Vegas Raiders. This is a solid hire as Ryan has a lot of experience and should bring a toughness and new mentality to this all-important position group in LA.
Texas ::: Head coach Steve Sarkisian has shunned two NFL interviews to sign on for another year of extension on his contract that now runs through 3031. Of course, they years don't really matter much as he could leave at any point. But, for now, it appears he is fully committed to seeing this through with the Longhorns and that is very good news for Texas supporters.
New Mexico ::: New New Mexico head coach Jason Eck has his defensive coordinator and he comes from Memphis. Spence Nowinsky made a name for himself as Ohio's DC back in 2023 before surprisingly moving to Memphis to take the Co-DC and defensive line job. He now gets the play calling gig back with the Lobos.
Texas State ::: The Bobcats have a new offensive coordinator and it is head coach GJ Kinne's long-time assistant, Landon Keopple. Keopple was most recently the assistant quarterbacks coach and director of recruiting. He'll get his shot to be a bigger part of this high-powered offense as the most likely play-caller. He replaces Mack Leftwich, who left to take the OC job at Texas Tech.
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