CFB DeptHITS: Saturday, December 28
We're focused on the 8-game bowl bonanza today with quick previews and 'Game Cards' for each of them.
Today, with so much action happening on the field, we’ll focus our attention to providing our ‘quick preview’ and full-on ‘Game Cards’ for each of the eight bowl games today…
Quick Preview: The Tar Heels have dominated the headlines this off-season with the hiring of Bill Belechick as their new head coach. While he’s working on building up the roster for 2025; they still have a Bowl game to play. Don’t underestimate that some of these kids are trying to impress the new boss. That could play a factor. Meanwhile, the Huskies quietly go about their business and prepare for this opportunity. They had a fine season, getting to eight wins and now they look to cap it off with an upset over the Heels. There is some impactful ‘opt outs’ for North Carolina, including star RB Omarion Hampton and EDGE Kaimon Rucker. Looking at the ‘Card’ we see that UConn really played one of the easier slates of games this season, but did deserve their eight wins. Their seven-point loss to Syracuse on the road in the finale is nothing to be ashamed of, while handling their business in games they should have won down the stretch. Rain is expected in Boston (55% chance) so it could get slippery out there. The Model simulation has this one coming in at 29-29.
Plays: That score has us with a lean to UConn +2.5 and OVER 53.5 on the total.
Quick Preview: The Eagles and Huskers will do battle at a rainy Yankee Stadium this morning. This one looks amazingly evenly matched. Both played tough slates according to SOS+ and both deserved their wins on the season. There is a talent edge to the Cornhuskers, but Boston College has been getting more out of theirs all season long. The Eagles are more banged up and one of those key injuries is DT Cam Horsley, who is questionable to play. Nebraska WR Isaiah Neyor has opted out as he prepares for the NFL Draft, costing the Huskers an offensive weapon. Both defenses seem to have the edge in this one; but the simulation gets up there a bit with a Nebraska 27-26 win.
Plays: No official play as the spread in right in line; but if we’d lean one way, we’d take the points with the Eagles +3.5. We’ll also put a 2-UNIT play on the OVER 46.5 — as the points keep on coming this bowl season.
Quick Preview: The Cajuns take on the Horned Frogs in Albuquerque in the New Mexico Bowl. Louisiana posted a 10-win season, though our dWINs (deserved wins) metric has them closer to 8.6 wins. They were a bit fortunate. That said, motivation will be a key in this one and they should have that edge over TCU. The Frogs have some injuries to offensive playmakers, including wide receivers Jack Bech and Savion Williams, which may slow them down a bit on offense. Even without those two, the ‘Game Card’ shows the biggest edge being the TCU passing attack led by QB Josh Hoover and called by Kendal Briles, over the Louisiana pass defense (ranked 104th all-in). Keep an eye on the status of QB Ben Wooldridge, who was slated to potentially be back for this game, but we have not seen any confirmation of that. Chandler Fields is a capable, veteran backup if he is unable to go. When the dust settles, the Model spits out 37-29 TCU win.
Plays: Vegas has this as a double-digit TCU spread currently. The model has it very close to that, but the lean is to Louisiana keeping this one close. Slight lean to the OVER 59 as well.
Quick Preview: In one of the more intriguing matchups of the day, we’ll see star QB Cam Ward lead the Hurricanes against the tough Iowa State defense. That defense, however, is missing key pieces, including LB Caleb Bacon, LB Carson Willich and S Malik Verdon. Meanwhile, the Hurricanes hope to have their star DE Tyler Baron available for this one (he’s questionable) and are likely without another player on the defensive line as Elijah Alston is not likely to play. There is a glaring talent edge to the Hurricanes, but Matt Campbell is famous for overcoming those talent discrepancies with scheming and coaching up. By all accounts, this bowl appearance is a bit of a disappointment, especially for the ‘Canes who dropped their finale at Syracuse and cost them a shot at the Playoff. Looking at the ‘Card’ we’d like to point out that the dWIN metric has the Cyclones as closer to a 7-win team. They had four wins (UCF, Cincinnati, Utah and Kansas State) that were below 40% post-game win expectancy. Again, Campbell seems to find ways to win. The trench advantage is glaring on the defensive side for the Hurricanes and they may live in the backfield, making QB Rocco Becht improvise - something he is used to doing. The Model simulation has this one going to the ‘Canes by a touchdown, 36-28.
Plays: Lean is to the Canes at -4.5 — which grew from opening at -1.5. The Cyclones keep it close for a while before Ward and company pull away late. Yet another OVER (58.5) play here also.
Quick Preview: The fact that the Redhawks are even in a bowl game seems like a minor miracle after their 1-4 start and the only win being a 3-point victory over UMass. They rattled off seven wins in a row to finish up the regular season before dropping the MAC Championship to Ohio. SOS+ tells us that that early slate paid off with games against Northwestern, Cincinnati and Notre Dame. They finished 80th in SOS+ while the Rams finished at 113th. Talent edge is to the Rams quite significantly, but there are some injury concerns on the Colorado State side, leaving them with some question marks, including key DT Cam Bariteau. The Model simulation has this one deadlocked at 22, so another evenly matched battle that may come down to special teams. Both do that well too.
Plays: A close game expected and when that is the case, we lean to take the points. That’s Colorado State getting 2.5 currently. The total is low at 40.5 — so we’ll lean OVER (again).
Quick Preview: What a turnaround we saw after Blake Harrell took over as head coach of the Pirates mid-season. They rallied, won seven games and gave him the full-time gig. ECU did play a relatively weak schedule and there is a pretty darn significant talent edge for the Wolfpack. This is where bowl games go sideways. It all points to the bigger school, but this is the Super Bowl for the Pirates. Something to keep in mind. Beyond the motivational factors, we’ll look at the ‘Game Card’ that shows some edges to the offenses. One thing that jumps out is the explosive play rate of the Katin Houser-led Pirates offense (14th) and NC State’s defense ranked 106th in allowing those big plays. Again, SOS plays a role there — but it is something to keep an eye on. Hit one or two of them and that would be a big factor. The Pirates will be without one of their playmakers on offense as WR Winston Wright is headed to the NFL and has opted out. NC State has a decided trench advantage and ultimately, that’s enough for the Model to give them a decisive 12-point victory. Note that rain is expected at game time in Annapolis.
Plays: This opened at NC State -5 and has moved in their direction to -7. The Model says to lay those points with the Pack. No play on the total, but the lean would be to the trend of OVER 60.5.
Quick Preview: We head to San Antonio for the seventh game of the day and one that is going to be a lot of fun to watch. Star power is everywhere. Both QB Shedeur Sanders and Heisman Trophy winning all-everything CB/WR Travis Hunter with both play. Will either of them hold anything back? Not likely. They are competitors. This is played in the Alamodome, so the conditions will be prime (see what we did there?) for both squads to execute on their game plan. That game plan varies between the two as the Cougars will run a balanced, slower attack, while the Buffaloes are going to air it out. That Colorado pass offense (6th) is facing a pretty tough pass defense (29th) and it will be interesting to see how that plays out. Sanders and company will have to earn it. On the injury front, the Cougars have a couple of players that are questionable to play, including key LB Harrison Taggart. WR Darius Lassiter had a personal foul in the finale and will not be out there for the first half, serving a suspension. Another ‘edge’ to look at on this card is the pass protection for BYU (19th) against a 97th ranked pass rush for the Buffs. If QB Jake Retzlaff is kept clean and able to survey things, he has the ability to pick it apart. The Model has this one deadlocked at 26 a piece. Another close one expected.
Plays: Take those 3.5 points with the Cougars and enjoy what should be a fun game. The total actually comes in a bit high as both don’t go at warp speed and both defenses keep things in front of them, so our first UNDER (55.5) lean of the day.
Quick Preview: The Bulldogs stepped up and filled Marshall’s spot in this one. They get the “pleasure” of facing a really tough Army squad. The spread has this one getting out of hand, but possibly not by enough. The Model simulation has Army taking this one by 22 points. That is mainly due to a big advantage in the trenches. Also, the Bulldogs have some portal players that will not play and a key injury to one of their better defensive players, LB Kolbe Fields. Ultimately, the Bulldogs won’t be able to get the stops or put up enough points to keep up and it may get sideways. Thanks for playing, LA Tech.
Plays: Army. Big. And the OVER 44. The Black Knights may get that themselves.
That’s our show for today. Enjoy the games; they are going quick and soon we’ll officially be in the off-season (where we really shine!). Please consider subscribing and sharing our work. It fuels all of this…thank you.
