CFB DeptHITS: Thursday, December 26
Get caught up on a slow Christmas day in the portal news and full bowl game previews for our three games today.
With a slight reprieve from the craziness of the portal for one day (Christmas), we’ll get you the notes that you’ll want to know and then move into on-field mode with ‘quick previews’ and full-on ‘Game Cards’ for our three-game slate today/tonight.
|||||| PORTAL PULSE CHECK
Remember, we have a dynamic ‘Portal Tracker’ over at the site and you are welcome to take a look. Here is an overview of the portal as it stands:
Once we get through these gauntlet of games and a little higher on the commitment percentage, we’ll start providing you with the team-level insights on who is winning (and losing) the portal game this season. Stay tuned.
Here are a few notes to know:
Southern Miss ::: CB Josh Moten [16.0] is one of the top rated players in our portal tracker. The former Texas A&M recruit, turned leader of the Marshall secondary, is following his head coach to Southern Miss. That's a big commitment for Charles Huff and company as he continues to raid his former roster. Moten surely garnered interest from bigger schools, but he's heading to Hattiesburg.
Purdue ::: The third UNLV offensive lineman to commit to Barry Odom's Purdue squad for 2025 is starting left tackle Jalen St. John [12.7]. He rates out as a good starter quality for the G5 level; but this is the Big Ten. It will be important for Odom to keep right tackle Marcus Mbow [14.6] around for his final season to keep some sort of stability in the line.
Illinois ::: The Fighting Illini pickup a solid Big Ten defensive line transfer as James Thompson [13.4] comes over from Madison. He played just seven snaps this season due to an injury suffered in camp. He will finish up his career in Champaign and this is just the kind of reclamation project that has worked for Bret Bielema in his time at Illinois.
Ole Miss ::: With most of the news around Ole Miss the portal is players coming to Oxford, there are a few notable player leaving. That includes S Louis Moore [13.9] who is heading out. The former JUCO product, who came in from Indiana played a good amount towards the end of the seaosn but is looking for a new home for his final season.
|||||| BOWL GAME PREVIEWS
Let’s take a look at what we are dealing with in these three bowl games today with our ‘quick’ previews and links to the full ‘Game Cards’ to get you what you need to know to make your decisions today…
The 2024 GameAbove Sports Bowl will take place at Ford Field in Detroit, Michigan, and feature the Pittsburgh Panthers (7-5, 3-5 ACC) versus the Toledo Rockets (7-5, 4-4 MAC). Vegas gives the advantage to Pittsburgh, but it has moved slightly Toledo’s way, landing at -7 the morning of the game.
Pittsburgh played a much tougher slate of games (38th in SOS+) than did Toledo (131st). Additionally, our dWINs metric says that Toledo deserved a whole two less wins this season, putting them at five and not even bowl eligible. It’s certainly been a rare down season for Jason Candle, but they still managed to put up a solid number. Does it come crashing down on them in the finale here? Pitt will try to take advantage and the word is that many of the players will play in this years’ version of the bowl game, something that was not the case a year ago. Even WR Konata Mumpfield, who has declared for the NFL Draft may play. No official word on his ‘opt out’ status. The Panthers did suffer through a five-game losing streak down the stretch of the ACC schedule.
RB Desmond Reid has been said to be good to go for this game, while Derrick Davis Jr. has a questionable tag. The big x-factor here is the status of QB Eli Holstein, who missed the last regular season game. With backup Nate Yarnell in the portal and not expected to play, they may turn to David Lynch under center. We just don’t have a lot of data on Lynch and that’s a bit concerning.
All of that said, the talent level across the board for the Panthers, should carry them through. Toledo’s stronger unit is their defense and while they should hold strong, the offense may not be able to generate much on the battle-tested Pitt defense.
MODEL SIMULATION: The model sees this one coming out with the Panthers on top by nine, 27-18 and that puts us at a lean for both Pitt (-7) and UNDER 50.
The 2024 Rate Bowl will take place in Phoenix, Arizona under the dome at Chase Field. The Kansas State Wildcats (8-4) will take on the Rutgers Scarlet Knights (7-5). Vegas opened this line at 8.5 point favorites for the Wildcats. That line has come down a couple of points and sits at 6.5 points the morning of the game.
Looking at the resumes for each squad heading into this final game of 2024, we see that both played similarly tough schedules in their respective conferences. We also see that dWINs metric points to a legitimate win total for each team. Rutgers went through a bit of a spell in the middle of the season, losing four straight, before rallying for three wins in their last four games, including a blowout of Michigan State in the finale on the road. K-State had some ups-and-downs themselves and finished losing three of four. The losses to Arizona State and Iowa State are nothing to be ashamed of. However, the 24-19 loss to Houston in week ten was unlike a Chris Kleiman coached team.
Looking at the injury/portal impacts in this one, there are a few and mostly impacting the Scarlet Knights. CB Eric Rogers remains questionable to play after missing the finale. Same goes for impact DE Aaron Lewis and WR Christian Dremel. Each of these players has had a little extra time to heal up and they may all play, but are listed questionable.
Kansas State will be without two players who have opted out in preparation for the NFL Draft. They include RB D.J. Giddens and CB Jacob Parrish.
Ultimately, most of the edges in the ‘Game Card’ go the Wildcats’ way, slightly. That leads to a model prediction in favor of K-State…
MODEL SIMULATION: The model spits out a rather high-scoring affair with the Wildcats coming out on top 33-25. That would put us at a slight lean for K-State -6.5 and a 1-UNIT play on the OVER 51.5.
The nightcap of the three-game slate tonight is the 68 Ventures Bowl from Mobile, Alabama. The weather appears to be cooperating and it should be a seasonably warm night and perfect for football. Vegas opened this line in favor of the Falcons at 7.5 points and it has not moved from that point.
Taking a closer look at what each squad has dealt with to this point in 2024, we see that Arkansas State has played a slightly tougher slate, ranked 88th in SOS+ compared to Bowling Green’s 110th. That said, our dWINs metric (deserved wins) says that the Red Wolves’ seven posted wins should be closer to 3.2 (!) and that is a bit alarming. They did win some close games this year, posting six of those victories by seven or less points.
Personnel-wise, the rumor is that the Falcons will play most everybody, even possibly those in the portal. All eyes will be on starting running back Terion Stewart. Though, Jaison Patterson is a more-than capable backup and if Stewart doesn’t play, the impact should be minimal. TE Harold Fannin Jr. is the other big name to keep an eye on, but reports are that he’ll play in this one and he is a massive part of this offense.
On the other side, the Red Wolves will be without their best player in the secondary as starting CB Dontay Joyner is in the portal and not on the roster heading into this one.
All signs point the Falcons way in this one, hence the over a touchdown spread.
MODEL SIMULATION: The model sees this one getting over that and into double-digits with the Falcons winning 33-23. So, a slight lean towards Bowling Green -7.5 and the OVER 52.5.
And, that’s our show for today. Enjoy the games and we’ll be back tomorrow.
