(CFBDm): Week Zero Reactions & Play Callers
We'll take a look at our extensive results from week zero (kidding); and introduce another element of our model as we prepare for week one.
Welp, we are at 66% as an official model. I think we should stop.
Really, though, we can’t take away too much from a two-game slate of eligible games. We are happy that the Georgia Tech/FSU game script when exactly as many expected. Though, that offensive start gave us cause for concern.
Nobody saw the egg that SMU laid in that first game; but it could have been the weather + a truly motivated Nevada team that did them in. They won the game but didn’t come close to covering.
(CFBDm) YTD Results: 2-1 (+1 Unit) — full results at the bottom of this here post.
The one key takeaway from week zero is that we will not overreact to anything we saw. That’s one of the fatal flaws in this game we like to play. Anything can happen in a one game set. If we see it twice, we take notice. If we see it three times, it’s a trend.
So, we aren’t going say that Florida State all of the sudden doesn’t have the talent level to compete in the ACC or for a spot in the 12-team College Football Playoff. We aren’t going to bump Georgia Tech too much and we certainly aren’t going to say it will be a lost season for the Mustangs of SMU. Vegas doesn’t do that; and neither will we.
So, here we are getting ready for an absolutely loaded slate of week one games. Per our rules, we only will be focusing on where we have the data - FBS vs. FBS match-ups, so that really narrows our pool of games. There are a lot of FCS foes on the docket this week. My fearless prediction is that 2-3 of them will upset their FBS counterparts this week — watch out, Coach Prime!
PLAY CALLING IMPACTS |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
One of the other aspects of our model that we failed to mention in the first edition, is the impact that play callers have on the outcome of a game. Talent is talent. We have talent ratings/rankings to show (based on our player ratings model) who has the most to work with. It’s up to the coaching staff to get the most out of that talent, scheme properly and set them up for success. Some coaches simply have a track record of doing that better than others. We have a rating for all offensive and defensive play callers in our system. These are impacted by a few behind-the-scenes (for now) metrics and a whole lot of subjective influence.
EXAMPLES:
We know Steve Sarkisian is calling the offensive plays for the Longhorns. We know he is successful at this craft. He has a very high rating.
We don’t have a ton of data on Alabama’s Defensive Coordinator Kane Wommack as a defensive play caller. However, we know his track record as a head coach at South Alabama and we can go ahead and make an educated guess that he’s going to be pretty darn good. He has a high rating.
Whereas, Robert Livingston, the new Colorado Buffaloes defensive coordinator, we don’t have a lot of data on. He has spent time in the NFL with the Bengals in a variety of roles, but never as a play caller. So, he’ll need to show us something before we give him the benefit of the doubt. He gets a medium-low rating.
We are working on a few advanced metrics of our own to grade out these play callers here in the 2024 season. Until we have that data, we’ll go with our gut and the circumstantial evidence.
We will be adjusting these ratings throughout the season as we see things play out on the field. One of the metrics we’ll track is the talent vs. performance ratio that we can easily calculate due to our ratings system. If a defense has a ranking in the upper 100’s for talent, but is performing at a 50-75ish level — we’ll need to take a look at the play caller / coaching in general as a reasoning.
Take a look at who we have as the play callers for all 134 FBS squads (feel free to correct us if we have anything wrong):
HOW IT WORKS IN THE MODEL |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
This is a small portion of what we are looking at when developing our final projections for each game. The offensive play caller vs. the defensive play caller on each side. That will come into play. How much does it matter? It’s a very small portion, but one that could turn the tides on a suggestion if the difference is stark enough.
Just wanted to get that in front of you before we get into the week one slate of games. We’ll continue to pepper you with elements of this model so you can see what goes into it. Then, we’ll tweak away as we see the results coming in. There will be no more data-driven model than this one…
Next up:
Week One - Thursday & Friday Plays (posting Thursday AM)
Week One - Saturday Plays (posting Saturday AM)
Then, we’ll take another look and see what we did well and where we can mess with things. If we are still at 66%, well, maybe we let it ride?
Thanks for following along.
WEEK ZERO Full Results
Florida State 27, Georgia Tech 20
Georgia Tech (+11.5) - 2 units (WIN) /// UNDER 55.5 - 2 units (WIN)
SMU (-27) - 3 units (LOSS)
Overall = 2-1; +1 unit
