SOTC Update: Arkansas Razorbacks
Sam Pittman's Razorbacks won seven games, including a bowl game, but is that enough to keep him off the hot seat? This is the 'State of the Chart' update for the Arkansas Razorbacks.
Arkansas Razorbacks
State of the Chart™ Recap Edition
Live All-In Ranking: 34th
Offense: 42nd
Defense: 29th
2024 Results: 7-6 (3-5 in SEC)
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|||||| STATE OF THE CHART™ SUMMARY
Sam Pittman’s seat will never be completely cooled off until he is able to take the Razorbacks to the next level and compete for an SEC Championship, but he has done a nice job here. Sure, the expectation is for improvement and he did that in 2024. They had a signature win against Tennessee, battled a really good Texas team and finished things off with a bowl win over Texas Tech with many players missing from both squads. Our “deserved wins” (dWIN) metric says this was closer to an 8-win team, than the seven they ended up with, and, frankly, eight wins is where they should be. The (re)hiring of offensive coordinator Bobby Petrino brought back some excitement to what become a stale offense. Boise State transfer quarterback Taylen Green arrived and produced — despite some costly mistakes. The offense put up big yards totals and scored plenty, but with an offensive line that had an identity crisis, things never went from “good” to “great”. The defense was a Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde with a run defense worthy of drawing praise and a pass defense that simply gave up too many big plays. This achilles heel was identified and taken full advantage of by opponents. The volume in the portal in the early going is heavy - both with incoming and outgoing players. There needs to a full rebuild in the secondary and potentially a scheme change to help avoid those chunk plays crushing any progress being made. Things don’t get any easier when looking ahead at the 2025 slate as they add a top group of five school (Memphis) and a National runner-up (Notre Dame). Pittman has his work cut out for him; but he always seems to come up with just enough to keep him around. Can he do it again in 2025?
|||||| HEAD COACH AND COACHING STAFF
Sam Pittman needed a winning 2024 season to make up for the four-win campaign of 2023. He accomplished that and keeps his job for another year. However, Hogs fans and administration aren't all that interested in a meddling .500 football team. So, that step forward must be duplicated. All of that said, Pittman is a very good coach and seems to find ways to get it done and stick around. We'll see if he can do so again in 2025. They key to that happening is a stiffening on the defensive side of the ball and quick rapport-building between a now veteran quarterback and his new weapons at receiver.
Coaching Staff Notes/Changes:
Pittman added Nick Perry, the former Alabama safety to join the staff as safeties coach. He comes to Fayetteville from Seattle, where he spent 2024 as a defensive assistant for the Seahawks. Prior to Seattle, Perry coached in Atlanta for the Falcons for three seasons, one of which as the assistant wide receivers coach. He replaces Deron Wilson, who is off to Georgia State as defensive coordinator.
Other than Perry, the rest of the coaching staff remains in tact (for now).
Note: This is a “dynamic” article; meaning we will update any information that comes in this “off-season” and post a note when impactful moves are made or news breaks.
|||||| 2024 SCHEDULE / RESULTS ANALYSIS
This slate ended up as the 46th most difficult according to our SOS+ metric. It turned out that the non-conference matchup with Oklahoma State in Stillwater didn’t hold much weight. They lost that mini-shootout, 39-31, but they really should have won the game according to post-game win expectancy (PGWE) metric from collegefootballdata.com. The other non-conference games were FCS Arkansas-Pine Bluff, UAB and Louisiana Tech were particularly weak, bringing the overall ranking down. Still, in the top third because of an inevitable, rough SEC slate.
Looking at our dWIN (deserved wins) metric; they deserved better than their seven wins. It has them at 8.1. Primarily due to some bad turnover luck (-8 margin) and games they should have won, like the aforementioned Oklahoma State game. They lost a toss up to A&M in week five as well.
||||||| POSITION GROUP CHECK-INS
OFFENSE: The big changes on offense heading into 2024 was the re-hiring of one Bobby Petrino as offensive coordinator and new quarterback, Boise State transfer Taylen Green. Both seemed to work out decently as Green blossomed into a really good leader under center. As he's prone to do, he made too many mistakes as evidenced by the nine interceptions. The revolving door of productive running backs provided a balanced attack that went fast, as Petrino likes to do. They finished 10th in FBS in yards per game and 11th in yards per play. However, that translated to 30.9 points per game (43rd) and had the offensive line not had to go through so many variations, things could have been even better.
||| QB
Taylen Green is living up to expectations and he will return for one final go in Fayetteville. He’ll need to build on the successes, limit mistakes and do so with a largely new supporting cast surrounding him. Malachi Singleton won’t stick around as he is transferring out to Purdue. KJ Jackson saw limited action and should hold down the backup role while three come in from the 2025 class, including two four-star signal callers.
||| RB
Ja’Quinden Jackson came in from Utah (via Texas) and lived up to his lofty expectations, scoring 15 times on the ground. He missed a couple of games due to injury. He is headed to the NFL in ‘25. Braylen Russell and Rashod Dubinion also were in-and-out of the lineup with ailments and both finished as the primary backups. Dubinion is heading to Appalachian State. Former FSU Seminole Rodney Hill was fourth in line when all were healthy. They bring in Mike Washington from New Mexico State (via Buffalo) in the portal for depth and a possible split with Russell.
||| WR
The top four in this room are all departing, either due to eligibility expiring or in the case of Isaiah Satenga, transfer (OU). They are returning just 17 catches from the 2024 squad and the biggest loss is certainly going to be Andrew Armstrong and his 78 grabs for 1,140 yards. Aware of this, they hit the portal hard to bring in a new set of weapons. That includes O’Mega Blake (Charlotte), Kam Shanks (UAB) and Raylen Sharpe (Fresno State). All of whom bring a different skills set/focus to the table. It’s going to take some concerted effort, but this group should gel together with Green and be solid.
||| TE
The curious case of Luke Hasz. He showed up in ‘23 as a true freshman and looked dominant before an injury ended his season early. Then, he returns for 2024 and never really had the same connection with Green as he did with Jefferson. He is heading out to Ole Miss. Andreas Paaske served as a primary blocker and Ty Washington chipped in when Hasz needed a breath. Add Var’Keyes Gumms as another interesting case as the former North Texas put up big receiving numbers in prior years but only saw 58 snaps across five games here. He will try his luck in Vegas next year, joining UNLV via the portal.
||| OL
This group had plenty of individual talent, but never really put it all together. They lacked cohesion due to injuries and other inconsistencies that forced a lot of movement between positions on the line. E’Marion Harris moved between left guard and right tackle as Patrick Kutas dealt with an injury. Speaking of Kutas, he rehabbed and vowed a comeback before bolting in the portal to Ole Miss. Fernando Carmona came of age as the starting, full-time left tackle and he will return. Keyshawn Blackstock is another that moved between left guard and right tackle. The former Michigan State Spartan will return for one more year. They hit the portal to get a couple of good ones in Caden Kitler (UCF) who likely takes over center as Addison Nichols bolts for SMU. They also get Corey Robinson II from Georgia Tech to likely take over one of the tackle spots, allowing Blackstock to move inside if/when needed. Pittman is a trenches kind of guy and will get this group playing at a high(er) level, as long as health cooperates this time around.
DEFENSE: While the surface stats look very pedestrian, allowing 25 points per game (66th in FBS) and 376+ yards per contest (73rd), if you take into account the strength of opponent, they held their own. There is a clear achilles heel that was targeted and exploited by opponents and that was the secondary. The pass defense allowed 246 yards per game (111th in FBS) and they gave up 52 explosive plays (30+ yards) through the air. That makes it really difficult to continuously get stops and get off the field. The run defense was stout but they only managed 4.7 tackles for loss per game (102nd). When you have clear deficiencies and play the kind of schedule they do; things can look bad. They had some really bad performances, like the Ole Miss debacle (63 points; 694 yards) followed up (after a bye) by holding Texas to 20 points in a near upset in Fayetteville. Travis Williams will need to get this pass defense scheme figured out quickly and it is sure to be a focus in 2025.
||| DL
This group did a fine job both in run stuffing and getting to the quarterback. Led by Landon Jackson and his seven sacks and 33 stops, they held their own against some big-time opponents in the trenches. Cameron Ball appears set to return, but he’s the only one in the perceived top five from this group with most exhausting eligibility and Nico Davillier heading west to join UCLA. Thus far, they have picked up three in the portal, led by former Florida DE Justus Boone. Expect internal candidates like Quincy Rhodes Jr. to get an uptick in snaps (just 19.4/game) and be more impactful. The losses are numerous and a step back should be expected (as of now).
||| LB
The stout run defense can be largely attributed to the top three here from last year. Xavian Sorey Jr., Stephen Dix Jr. and Brad Spence were all over the field. Spence was a sophomore and showed out big time. He is leaving for Texas and that’s a massive portal loss. Sorey and Dix are both returning and they’ll need somebody internal, like Bradley Shaw who got limited snaps, but did get some solid experience, to step up in to rotational roles. Thus far, they have not added anybody in the portal to supplement. They likely feel they have what they need here.
||| DB
And now we’ve made it to the red-headed step child of the defensive units. The much maligned defensive backfield. There is not a lot of green here (well above average) and it’s little surprise that many are not returning. This will take a full rebuild. They have added two from the portal, but no big-time names thus far. It’s interesting that as rough as this group had it last year, two are leaving for Michigan, one is headed to Ole Miss and another (Marquise Robinson) entered the NFL Draft. Getting a player like former Georgia 5-star Jaheim Singletary to live up to the lofty expectations would be a good start at a turn around. That would be just one domino. They need many more.
SPECIAL TEAMS: Kicking has been an issue recently, until Matthew Shipley took over for Kyle Ramsey and righted the ship. He went 10/12 (2/2 from 50+). Both graduate and they bring in North Texas’ Blake Ford. We don’t have a lot of data on him, so they must see something beyond the data.
Devin Bale, the Northern Colorado transfer, took hold of the punting job and never looked back. He had a couple of boomers (66-yard long) and was well above average. He will return as the primary punter.
Rodney Hill (kickoffs) and Isaiah Satenga (punts) were solid return men. They didn’t do much spectacularly, but certainly were not a hindrance. Satenga moves on via the portal, so they’ll need to find another return man. Hill likely slides in there for 2025.
Reader feedback is requested and encouraged! Who knows these teams better than their passionate fan bases? We don’t pretend to know it all and would love your feedback. We will update/edit based (and credit) for anything that is brought to our attention. Let’s do this together…
|||||| TRANSFER PORTAL TRACKER
Not many programs are more involved in the portal than this Arkansas squad. That includes both incoming and outgoing. As you can see from the screenshot below of the current standing in the portal, there is a bit more outgoing than incoming as this point. It’s not rare as there are still over 1,000 players left to sign. The biggest hit taken is on the offensive line, which is losing five players totaling a weighted ‘talent score’ hit of -65.1. They have addressed it by adding 67.4. Arguably, the most impactful single loss of a player is EDGE Brad Spence, who is headed to SEC rival Texas following his breakout sophomore campaign. They are using the portal to offset the losses at wide receiver.
Below is a screen shot of the full, live Transfer Portal Tracker over at CFBDepth.com. Click the image or the button below to view it in its entirety…
|||||| 2025 RECRUITING CLASS
This is a typical recruiting class rank for the Hogs. They never really approach the top 25, but focus a bit more on potential and player development. If they can keep it here, in the mid-40’s nationally, they can be okay. They ended up with four 4-star caliver players via the 247Sports composite system. Two of them happen to be quarterbacks. This is why, when rating these classes, we use weights based on positional additions. In this case, at most only one of those two four-star quarterbacks is going to end up impacting this roster. The other will either flame out or transfer out.
They believe they have a future NFL-caliber player on the way in LB Tavion Wallace, the younger brother of former Kentucky linebacker and current Carolina Panther, Trevin Wallace. He is believed to have a similar “dawg” in him and projects out to play at a high level right away.
Here is a snapshot of the 2025 Recruiting Class+ with a link to the live page with updates throughout the cycle:
|||||| 2025 SCHEDULE LOOK AHEAD
This is going to be a tough one. Tougher than what they faced in 2024. The biggest difference is in the non-conference games that sees on of the best group of five schools, Memphis, and, Notre Dame. The SEC slate doesn’t let up any as they travel to some really tough places to play in Oxford (Ole Miss), Knoxville (Tennessee), Death Valley (LSU) and Austin (Texas). They do get that Notre Dame game in Fayetteville in week five. Their byes lead into the road games at Tennessee and LSU.
There is a lot of movement and decisions to be made throughout the off-season, including more portal moves, winter workouts and spring ball. Get all caught up with the full-on State of the Chart Magazine coming in July. If you missed the ad before, get more information and give us your e-mail to stay in the loop on everything SOTC!
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