SOTC Update: Auburn Tigers
Let's check in on Hugh Freeze and his warming seat as the head coach on the Plains. This is the State of the Chart update for the Auburn Tigers.
Auburn Tigers
State of the Chart™ Recap Edition
Live All-In Ranking: 21st
Offense: 34th
Defense: 16th
2024 Results: 5-7 (2-6 in SEC)
All of the information that follows is just the beginning and everything will be updated in our first edition of the State of the Chart™ digital magazine. Slated for a launch in July of 2025, learn more about this and shoot us your email to be kept up-to-speed on launch dates and receive sneak previews…
Our paid subscribers here at Substack will get the full magazine at no cost. Consider supporting our work for just $5.99/month or $59.99 for a full year.
|||||| STATE OF THE CHART™ SUMMARY
Things may not be as bad as they may seem. Sure, a five-win season is never really met with a lot of enthusiasm here, but according to our talent rankings this is a top 25 team. They ran into bad luck and couldn’t finish games they needed to (see: Mizzou in Columbia on October 19). Their deserved wins has them as a 7.1-win squad, rather than a 5-win program and with their SEC schedule, while easier than some of their conference mates, still presents a challenge. The offense was better than their final numbers as they struggled finishing drives. Similarly, the defense - especially the run defense - was really good in 2024 but had trouble keeping opponents from finishing drives with touchdowns. They had quite a few true freshman contributing right away and there is a big opportunity to take a step forward in 2025. Hugh Freeze needs to take this program back to a higher level; and he’ll need to do it with a new quarterback, but when looking deeper at the ‘24 season, it really wasn’t as bad as it seemed.
|||||| HEAD COACH AND COACHING STAFF
Hugh Freeze got the program back on the right track in 2023, winning six games. He made some staff moves to ensure that win total would continue to rise as is the expectation on the Plains. It did not. The 2024 version of the Tigers finished 5-7 and 2-6 in the SEC. This is not an acceptable outcome and it is fair to say that his seat is heating up. He will need to marked improvements in 2025 for his job to remain safe.
Coaching Staff Notes/Changes:
Freeze hired former Georgia Southern head coach Chad Lunsford as the Tigers’ special teams coordinator in January. He comes to Auburn from FAU, where he was the special teams and tight ends coach for the Owls the past three seasons. He also served as interim head coach after Tom Herman was fired.
The Tigers lost veteran defensive edge coach Josh Aldridge to East Carolina, where Blake Harrell is making him the Pirates’ defensive coordinator.
They added Roc Bellantoni as the outside linebackers coach after his stint with FAU came to an “interesting” end. He was fired as the Owls defensive coordinator by Tom Herman; who was later dismissed himself. Then, Chad Lunsford re-hired Bellantoni to finish out the season. Now both find themselves on The Plains for the 2025 season.
TJ Rushing was a special assistant to the head coach for the Tigers last season, after a stint at Texas A&M as their defensive backs coach from 2020-23. He has been promoted to an on-field coaching role as he takes on the safeties role for Hugh Freeze.
Update (2/10): The Tigers have extended defensive coordinator DJ Durkin and given him a raise to $2.5 Million, making him the second-highest paid at the position, behind only new Penn State DC Jim Knowles.
Note: This is a “dynamic” article; meaning we will update any information that comes in this “off-season” and post a note when impactful moves are made or news breaks.
|||||| 2024 SCHEDULE / RESULTS ANALYSIS
Considering what some of their SEC counterparts encountered this season, this was a relatively easy slate of games. The tone was set with a disappointing seven-point loss to California at home in week two. They followed that up with two more losses at Jordan-Hare to Arkansas and Oklahoma, before playing their first road game of the season. That happened to be in Athens, Georgia, and it didn’t go well. They had a bye to try to right the ship and with four winnable games next up on the schedule. They blew a sure win on the road in Columbia, MO and then beat Kentucky in Lexington before things really went south with a 17-7 loss to Vanderbilt at home. The 43-41 win over Texas A&M in week 13 is one that gave a glimmer of hope heading into 2025.
As bad as a five-win season looks on the surface, our deserved Wins (dWIN) metric shows that the Tigers deserved better. Again, they really should have won that Mizzou game and the post-game win expectancy for the Vanderbilt loss was also 68% in their favor. Both OU and Arkansas were toss-ups. A little luck would have gone a long way. They were minus-9 in turnover margin and that contributes to this as well. The dWIN for Auburn is 7.4 (+2.4).
||||||| POSITION GROUP CHECK-INS
||| OFFENSE: It is no secret that for Hugh Freeze's offense to work properly, he needs the quarterback to execute it. He thought he had that the past two seasons with Michigan State transfer Payton Thorne. He got a bad rap, but was actually pretty good. In fact, the passing game outshined the running game with an 8.6 yards per play rate (ranked 10th in FBS). The offense as a whole finished with 27.8 points per game (71st); despite being 28th in yards per game (429.4). What gives? Oh, there it is! Red zone deficiency. They only capped off drives with touchdowns 49% of the time and wasted a pretty explosive passing game. If they can improve upon that and find their next quarterback, they should be better in 2025.
||| QB
As mentioned above, Payton Thorne was really good in 2024. He has exhausted his eligibility and moves along. As do all of three of his backups via the portal. They bring in Oklahoma outcast (and former top prospect) Jackson Arnold to compete with Stanford transfer-in Ashton Daniels and don’t rule out ‘25 4-star recruit Deuce Knight getting in the mix for playing time as a true freshman.
||| RB
Jarquez Hunter was the bellcow here for the Tigers in 2024. He gained over 1,200 yards and scored eight times. Damari Alston and Jeremiah Cobb each chipped in and showed well in their limited reps. Both should take on larger roles in 2025. They will be joined by UConn transfer-in Durell Robinson, who projects to be the lead back but needs to get in and become acclimated to the offense. They also add one 4-star recruit, Alvin Henderson, to join the fray.
Note: We are leaving Brian Battie on here through the off-season in tribute; though he will not play football again after a shooting left him unable to move for a long period of time. He was able to take his first steps with the aide of a cane in July and is on the road to recovery.
||| WR
This was KeAndre Lambert-Smith’s best version of himself in his final season. He provided an explosive playmaker to the mix. The 2024 class of wide receivers appears to be one for the books. The headliner is five-star Cam Coleman who reeled in 37 passes for 598 yards and eight scores. Malcolm Simmons operated in the slot and was reliable (82% catch rate). Perry Thompson was another five-star who didn’t do a whole lot, but saw the field and gained good experience. They add in a couple of solid transfers - Eric Singleton (Georgia Tech) and Horatio Fields (Wake Forest) - to join the soon-to-be sophomores in what could be the SEC’s best wide receiver room.
||| TE
Former FIU Panther Rivaldo Fairweather was serviceable as a receiver in the offense, though certainly wasn’t a game-breaker. Luke Deal was utilized primarily as a blocker and the PFF data suggests he was one of the better pass blockers on the squad. Both of them depart as their eligibility has expired. They hit the portal to bring in Preston Howard from Maryland, who was a reliable target — and that’s the extent of that the tight ends needs to be in this offense.
||| OL
This unit was not the best in 2024. They finished 51st in FBS according to our rotation talent ranks. They allowed a pretty mobile quarterback in Payton Thorne to be dropped 27 times. The good news is that they are relatively young and all five starters are expected back led by center Connor Lew. LT Dillon Wade has good experience after coming over from Tulsa and the other three are grading out as replacement-level. Thus, the move to bring in Virginia Tech transfer Xavier Chaplin to likely take over one of the tackle spots. That would be an upgrade over Izavion Miller. 4-star in the ‘24 class, DeAndre Carter may be asked to take on a larger role going forward and they brought in USC RT Mason Murphy for depth and/or to challenge for a starting job. This should be and certainly needs to be an improved group in 2025.
||| DEFENSE
This was a really solid unit. Led by their stout rush defense, allowing just 3.08 yards per attempt on the season and coming in at 16th in our rotational talent rankings. They allowed just three (!) run plays to go for over 30 yards the entire season. Like the offense, the struggled when it counts the most - in the red zone. They allowed opponents to score touchdowns 65% of the time entering the Tigers’ defensive 20-yard line and in. If that, and the third down defense improved slightly, this defense could have carried the Tigers to a couple of more wins. Defensive coordinator Ron Roberts did a fine job.
||| DL
Keldric Faulk has developed into a star. He not just rushes the passer off the edge; he also chips in on run defense and is one of the best defensive linemen in the game today. He will return for his Junior season. He’ll need to get to know quite a few new teammates as this grouping will lose five to graduation and four more to the portal. They are bringing in Chris Murray from Sam Houston to team up with Faulk as a really exciting duo, wreaking havoc. Malik Blocton had a really good true freshman season and should remain a key cog in this line for 2025 as well.
||| LB
Jalen McLeod was a complete stud and will be very missed as he runs out of eligibility. They will lose their top four here and five of their top seven. This unit will need a complete rebuild. They haven’t exactly addressed it via the portal in great depth at this point, grabbing just one transfer-in and it is LSU’s Xavier Atkins, who played in just five game as a true for the Tigers. The expectation is that Demarcus Riddick will take a big step forward as a sophomore, following a good start to his career. Robert Woodyard Jr. should also see more playing time and be asked to level up his game. This unit will remain strong despite big losses.
||| DB
The amount of young talent emerging in this unit is exciting. Kayin Lee will be a Junior and will remain the starter at strong safety. True freshmen CB Kaleb Harris and FS Jay Crawford each saw plenty of playing time and are already making an impact on this defense. They should continue to grow into their roles. Throw in redshirt freshman Sylvester Smith, who chipped in as well. That led to a few of the more veteran players, who fell out of grace, to transfer out. With another year of seasoning, this unit may just catch up to the stellar run defense and put it all together as one of the best defenses in the country.
||| SPECIAL TEAMS
This kicking situation was a mess despite having multiple talented place kickers on the roster. Alex McPherson battled a condition that kept him out most of the season. Towns McGough took over and was highly thought of, but struggled mightily (making just 5/12). Ian Vachon ended up as the starter and finished 6/8 and 11/11 on PATs. The hope is for a return to full health for McPherson to stabilize this important role.
They will need to replace a solid Oscar Chapman as his eligibility ran out. They quickly addressed this by nabbing Oklahoma State transfer Hudson Kaak, who appears to even be an upgrade.
RB Jeremiah Cobb (kickoffs) and CB Keionte Scott (punts) were the primary returners and were both solid, not great. Scott will not return as he is transferring out to Houston. Cobb is returning.
Reader feedback is requested and encouraged! Who knows these teams better than their passionate fan bases? We don’t pretend to know it all and would love your feedback. We will update/edit based (and credit) for anything that is brought to our attention. Let’s do this together…
|||||| TRANSFER PORTAL TRACKER
A lot of movement both incoming and outgoing for the Tigers. The biggest losses were on the defensive side with the defensive line and defensive backs taking the biggest losses. Caleb Wooden and Amaris Williams top the list. Freeze went out to get some options to take over at quarterback as both Ashton Daniels (Stanford) and Jackson Arnold (Oklahoma) will compete for the right to take over for Payton Thorne. Overall, the +/- comes out as a net loss and ranked 60th in FBS at time of writing.
Below is a screen shot of the full, live Transfer Portal Tracker over at CFBDepth.com. Click the image or the button below to view it in its entirety…
|||||| 2025 RECRUITING CLASS
It’s not all about the Portal these days on The Plains with a particular focus on the defense. This class comes in at #8 offense, #1 on defense for an overall 3rd ranking overall. They have racked up 17 (!), 4-star prospects in this class with six of them expected to chip in on the front seven on defense. This group is getting it done in the recruiting game and after a 2024 class that had quite a few contributors playing right away, things are on the rise.
Here is a snapshot of the 2025 Recruiting Class+ with a link to the live page with updates throughout the cycle:
|||||| 2025 SCHEDULE LOOK AHEAD
The 2025 slate looks very similar to the 2024 one, with the SEC opponents swapping locales. They have one FCS opponent (week 13) in a tune-up week prior to the Iron Bowl, which they are hosting this year. They open with a real test against Baylor in Waco.
There is a lot of movement and decisions to be made throughout the off-season, including more portal moves, winter workouts and spring ball. Get all caught up with the full-on State of the Chart Magazine coming in July. If you missed the ad before, get more information and give us your e-mail to stay in the loop on everything SOTC!
We hope you enjoyed this content. Please subscribe, re-stack, share, and spread the word of this little endeavor. This fuels our work each and every day and keeps us going. Thank you.
State of the Chart™ Recap Edition Links & Schedule
2/1: Alabama Crimson Tide
2/3: Georgia Bulldogs
2/4: LSU Tigers
2/5: Auburn Tigers