SOTC Update: Florida Gators
Let's check in on the Gators as the '24 season ended strong and Billy Napier has a new vote of confidence to live up to. This is a big off-season as they look to re-enter the upper echelon of the SEC.
Florida Gators
State of the Chart™ Recap Edition
Live All-In Ranking: 19th
Offense: 20th
Defense: 18th
2024 Results: 8-5 (4-4 in SEC)
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|||||| STATE OF THE CHART™ SUMMARY
The big question heading into 2024 was whether or not head coach Billy Napier would survive the first part of the season with a ruthless slate of games following a five-win season in Gainsville. Throw in some really poor injury luck ahead of them, it’s nealry a wonder that he did make it through. Things did not get off to a rip-roaring start as the rival Hurricanes dismantled them in the Swamp in week one. Napier stayed true to his commitment that this team would come around and that is exactly what happened. The Gators ended up winning eight games, including four in a row at the end. That included two big wins over SEC opponents LSU and Ole Miss. They got to see the future with DJ Lagway replacing an injured Graham Mertz and running back Jadan Baugh bursting on the scene in a big way. The offensive line held their own in the trenches against the biggest of the bigs and the offense really performed admirable despite the injuries consistently throwing this off. Napier was given a vote of confidence and told that he would return mid-season. The really impressive recruiting class of 2025 had something to do with that. The Gators are getting ravaged in the portal thus far in the off-season, but Napier and company (read: Collective) are keeping the guys they really want. The future is now less clouded in Gainsville heading into 2025, but the expectations of improvement have not gone away.
|||||| HEAD COACH AND COACHING STAFF
The seat was hot heading into 2024 for Billy Napier and with a lot of turnover and a brutal schedule ahead, many were questioning if he could make it through the season. Had the Gators slipped up against Mississippi State in week four before a bye, that plug could have been pulled. Instead, the team responded and finished with a flurry, beating LSU, Ole Miss and Florida State before finishing up by wiping the floor with Tulane in the bowl game. Napier is safe for now; but another step must be taken and the upward trajectory continuing in 2025.
Coaching Staff Notes/Changes:
Most of the staff remains in tact and Napier added a veteran to the defensive staff as Vinnie Sunseri was named co-defensive coordinator and safeties coach. The former Alabama player and NFL coach, Sunseri will team up with defensive coordinator Ron Roberts to form a team with plenty of experience to lead this unit. Austin Armstrong took the defensive coordinator job at Houston this off-season, leaving an opening for Napier to make this addition.
Update (2/17): Miami stole Florida's secondary coach, Will Harris after just one season in Gainesville. In response to that, the Gators quickly moved to hire Deron Wilson, the former Arkansas secondary coach, who just last month took the Georgia State defensive coordinator job. He quickly bolts to Gainesville. This again shows that position jobs at the biggest schools remain more attractive than play-calling roles at smaller schools.
Note: This is a “dynamic” article; meaning we will update any information that comes in this “off-season” and post a note when impactful moves are made or news breaks.
|||||| 2024 SCHEDULE / RESULTS ANALYSIS
This was the pre-season most difficult schedule in all of the land. It added to the pressure Billy Napier was under already and it lived up to its difficulty meter - even if Florida State was way down in 2024. The only games that were non-competitive were the Samford (week two) and Mississippi State (week four) games. The Gators needed to show up in that first game hosting Miami. It was a chance to show the college football world that they need to be taken seriously. The Swamp was rocking and ready for it. The Hurricanes crushed them. They showed up better two weeks later, but it was still a home loss as A&M beat them pretty handily. After beating a really down Bulldogs in Starkville in week four, Napier and the boys went into the bye week knowing that this game against UCF may seal their fate. They came out and won it handily. They then battled Tennessee tough in Knoxville for most of the game before falling by six. They then returned home and beat up on Kentucky. The four-game gauntlet they endured following their week nine bye was the toughest stretch any team could have been through. They played Georgia (neutral site), Texas (in Austin), LSU and Ole Miss (at home). They went 2-2 in those games. That saved the season for all intents and purposes. They beat LSU and Ole Miss at home and things started to feel right again despite the early losses knocking them out of any real post-season consideration. They finished out by whooping Tulane in the bowl game on a four-game winning streak.
Our “deserved wins” (dWIN) metric says that this team deserved slightly better. When looking at the post-game win expectancy numbers (courtesy of collegefootballdata.com), they largely won the games they deserved to win and lost the games they deserved to drop. They beat the books by finishing +53 in our weighted spread margin stat.
||||||| POSITION GROUP CHECK-INS
OFFENSE: They ran one of the slowest paced offenses in the land getting off just 61.8 plays per game. Their per attempt numbers were much better than their overall numbers which finished up at 28.3 points (64th) and 386.9 yards (66th) per game. They had one of the best offensive lines in the game according to our talent ratings and that helped those per play averages look really good. They gave whoever was under/behind center (Graham Mertz or DJ Lagway) time to operate and opponents managed just 20 sacks — and that was against some of the best competition. They were certainly more explosive than they had been in the past as well, racking up 58 explosive (30+ yards) plays. Again, imagine if they ran with any pace? If they were better on third down, this could have looked different. They converted just 37.9% of their third down plays (rank: 92nd). Overall, the offense did their part and its pretty widely known that Billy Napier calls his own plays and that is not likely changing any time soon. The future appears bright with Lagway getting his feet wet and Jadan Baugh emerging as a star at running back as a true freshman.
||| QB
Graham Mertz came into the season as the starter for the second straight season after coming in after what seemed like a full career at Wisconsin. He was a “game manager” and he did that well. An injury then derailed his season and (conveniently) gave their highly-touted future DJ Lagway the chance to play. He fared well for the most part and did enough to justify his status as the starter going forward. They bring in a veteran backup from Louisville, Harrison Bailey, to battle Aidan Warner for the third string duties.
Update (2/6): Lagway is limited in spring practice as he works through off-season shoulder surgery. This is mainly precautionary, but something worth monitoring through the summer.
||| RB
This was supposed to be Montrell Johnson's year. Injuries struck and Jadan Baugh took the opportunity and literally ran with it. Despite facing top-notch competition, Baugh established himself as the lead back while Johnson was out and theoretically was better suited for the role when Johnson returned to health. Johnson will move on and Baugh returns as a top back to watch in 2025. Ja'Kobi Jackson is a plus backup and will return as well.
||| WR
The trio of Elijhah Badger, Eugene Wilson III and Chimere Dike was a really good one. The issue was getting all of them on the field together. Injuries struck this position as well and they needed some others to step up. Dike ended up the most targeted, playing in 13 games, with Wilson getting the most looks when healthy. Badger was dynamic (20.7 yards per catch) and provided a deep threat. Beyond that, it was hit-and-miss. It is likely we’ll see more of former 4-star Aidan Mizell in ‘25 after he took a couple of steps forward and with some looks opening up, he should be right there for them. J.Michael Sturdivant is heading east after playing his first three seasons at Cal and UCLA. He showed out as a true freshman in 2023 with the Bears. He jumped ship for Chip Kelly’s UCLA Bears and things went downhill. They have a pretty significant change in philosophy there as Deshaun Foster begins his second season and the hope is that Sturdivant returns to the form he displayed earlier in his career. They had a haul in the recruiting class as well with 5-star Dallas Wilson and 4-star Vernell Brown III signing on.
||| TE
Hayden Hansen led the way here with 601 snaps and while he wasn't the biggest part of the passing offense, he brought a solid blocking presence to this slow-paced offense. Tony Livingston appears to be aerial threat in the passing game as he rates out well, only getting 16 targets, grabbed 11 of them, scoring twice. As Arlis Boardingham heads to Bowling Green, we should see this Hansen/Livingston combo take another step foward in '25.
||| OL
This group comes in at 10th in overall talent level and 6th in run blocking. Both runners Johnson and Baugh were clearly helped along by this group led by center Jake Slaughter, who is one of the top interior linemen in the game. Brandon Crenshaw-Dickson was really solid at right tackle. They had to do some shifting around and we saw Kamryn Waites play snaps at both guard positions and right tackle. They also allowed just 1.5 sacks per game, ranked 45th, so the pass protection was also solid. It appears that 4/5 are on their way back and as long as they fill the void left by Crenshaw-Dickson at right tackle, this can be an even better line which is a sure-fire sign of good things to come for this offense as a whole.
DEFENSE: The defensive line was the best of the three position groups here. Tyreak Sapp developed into one of the best defensive linemen in the game. They were deep and productive in the trenches. The second- and third-levels left some to be desited. They just didn't have the super-star quality they needed to live up to the talent level. They played a rough slate of some pretty solid offenses and finished allowing just 23.1 points per game (ranked 42nd). 39 sacks ranked 11th in FBS and they also managed 6.6 tackles for loss per game (31st). They just gave up a little too much in the passing game despite tightening up in the red zone nicely to limit touchdowns (50% opponent rate). Ron Roberts' group will get Sapp back and that is a huge boon. The youngsters need to step up elsewhere to get this from 'good' to 'great'.
||| DL
There is a lot of talent on this defensive line, led by Tyreak Sapp, who racked up 8 sacks and 29 stops. His decision to stick around for another year is massive for this defense as a whole. The collective must have stepped up. Caleb Banks and Cam Jackson also played primary roles; but this group is deep and rotates a lot. 12 players had over 100 snaps. That breeds experience and keeps players happy (for the most part).
||| LB
This second level left some to be desired. Shemar James played the most snaps and had his moments, but was not a star. Jaden Robinson, similarly was good, but not great. T.J. Searcy may have been their best all around linebacker, based on the metrics from PFF. James is heading to the NFL and Searcy to Texas A&M. With no big-time transfers coming in, its time for youngsters Myles Graham and Grayson Howard to step in and step up.
||| DB
Another solid group lacking a true "star" -- not the position, but the quality level. That said, Jason Marshall Jr. was very good. Devin Moore suffered an injury and limited to seven games. He could be that breakout cover corner they need in 2025. They were more flush with safeties than corners; and they didn't have Asa Turner all season due to injury. A lack of early portal moves shows they like what they have here and health would be their best bet to get this to a higher level.
SPECIAL TEAMS: Jeremy Crawshaw was one of the best punters in the game; racking up 27 inside the opponents 20 yard line. Trey Smack was also a very good kicker, hitting 18/21, including 3/4 from 50+. Chimere Dike chipped in nicely as the primary punt returner to get this specialists group up to the fifth best unit in all of college football. Crawshaw is off to the NFL, but they get Tommy Doman in from Michigan to replace him.
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Reader feedback is requested and encouraged! Who knows these teams better than their passionate fan bases? We don’t pretend to know it all and would love your feedback. We will update/edit based (and credit) for anything that is brought to our attention. Let’s do this together…
|||||| TRANSFER PORTAL TRACKER
Napier isn’t a big portal guy. He doesn’t have to be very active in bringing in recruits if they are holding on to their own players. Well, there are quite a few leaving in this cycle - mainly on the defensive line where they are losing four above average at the position for a -64.1 weighted talent rating loss. They addressed a need by bringing in Tommy Doman from Michigan to handle the loss of Jeremy Crawshaw heading to the NFL. QB Harrison Bailey is brought in to be a backup, so that impact isn’t as great. WR J.Michael Sturdivant comes in from UCLA where his stock took a hit over the past two seasons. That’s following a big true freshman campaign at Cal when he caught 65 passes for 755 yards and seven scores. The hope is that Napier’s scheme and Lagway’s ability will unlock that full potential and it would be a bigger impact than it appears in the data currently. Overall, their portal-specific talent churn comes in as one of the worst in all of the game.
Below is a screen shot of the full, live Transfer Portal Tracker over at CFBDepth.com. Click the image or the button below to view it in its entirety…
|||||| 2025 RECRUITING CLASS
Napier has always been a good recruiter and/or his staff has done a nice job bringing in talent. This year appears to be no exception. They have what appears to be a nice balance of offense and defense coming in, headlined by WR Dallas Wilson, an in-state five-star recruit. And we’ve seen recently that wide receivers can make an immediate impacts on the depth chart. They are also loading up at running back with two 4-stars and a 3-star recruit coming in the 2025 class. Overall, it ranks ninth in all of FBS as it stands at time of writing.
Here is a snapshot of the 2025 Recruiting Class+ with a link to the live page with updates throughout the cycle:
|||||| 2025 SCHEDULE LOOK AHEAD
Things don’t get a whole lot easier for the Gators as far as the schedule difficulty goes for 2025. Their non-conference matchups with Miami (this year, on the road) and Florida State (in the Swamp) remain. The other two non-con’s are against FCS Long Island and South Florida. The Bulls are not going to be a cake walk and it will be their Super Bowl. They will have to avoid an early season look ahead spot with trips to Death Valley (LSU) and Miami the next two weeks. They have a similar late season gauntlet with Georgia, at Kentucky, at Ole Miss and home to Tennessee before finishing up with the Seminoles. We don’t yet have all of the SOS+ numbers in yet, but this one should remain in the top ten toughest schedules in college football this coming season.
There is a lot of movement and decisions to be made throughout the off-season, including more portal moves, winter workouts and spring ball. Get all caught up with the full-on State of the Chart Magazine coming in July. If you missed the ad before, get more information and give us your e-mail to stay in the loop on everything SOTC!
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2/7: Florida Gators