SOTC Update: Northwestern Wildcats

David Braun's group took a step back in 2024. The hope is that it is a one-year 'reset' and not an indication of things to come. This is the State of the Chart™ update for the Northwestern Wildcats.

Feb 24, 2025

State of the Chart™ Recap Edition

Live All-In Ranking: 81st
Offense: 112th
Defense: 46th
2024 Results: 4-8 (2-7 in Big Ten)

All of the information that follows is just the beginning and everything will be updated in our first edition of the State of the Chart™ digital magazine. Slated for a launch in July of 2025, learn more about this and shoot us your email to be kept up-to-speed on launch dates and receive sneak previews…

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|||||| STATE OF THE CHART™ SUMMARY

David Braun tried to extend the momentum from a really surprising and intriguing 2023 campaign into this season. He made some changes at the coordinator spots on his coaching staff and went out to get a new quarterback to lead this offense. Things did not go well. Mike Wright, the Vanderbilt transfer, faltered in the role and put new offensive coordinator Zach Lujan (in from South Dakota State) behind the 8-ball and there just were no answers on the roster. Those struggles made tough on the other side of the ball to keep it close, though Tim McGarigle’s defense did their best to do just that. They played an unrelenting slate and when you don’t have the talent level in the Big Ten, four wins happens. We checked the ‘deserved Wins’ metric to see if there is a silver lining, but there really wasn’t. This was a deserved four-win season. As the Wildcats attempt to put this one behind them, they did a nice job retaining some of the talent that was present and supplemented with others in the portal - though, the portal is not the primary source of replacement talent. They will need that player development that is so integral to success here to really show up in 2025.

|||||| HEAD COACH AND COACHING STAFF

David Braun had a surprising successful run as the interim head coach here and solidified those results with a great 2023. He then made some moves to get ‘his guys’ in at the key positions and 2024 did not live up to the standard set the year prior. Is this a one year outlier for the up-and-coming young head coach or is this the standard again in Evanston?

Coaching Staff Notes/Changes:

Offensive coordinator Zach Lujan was Braun’s pick to run the offense. He came here after a stint as OC at South Dakota State, where they had a lot of success. We knew there would be growing pains as Lujan would need to adjust the scheme to fit the personnel. They hand picked QB Mike Wright to come in to run the offense and that didn’t work as expected. Lujan will need to find the magic quickly to get this offense caught up to the defensive side of the ball.
Defensive coordinator Tim McGarigle was promoted from linebackers coach heading into this season and unlike his colleague on the offensive side, this defense performed admirably under some difficult circumstances.
The only real change to the the staff (thus far) for 2025 is bringing in Aristotle Thompson from Cal to become the new running backs coach. He replaces Chris Foster, who took the running backs coach job at Duke earlier this off-season.

Note: This is a “dynamic” article; meaning we will update any information that comes in this “off-season” and post a note when impactful moves are made or news breaks.

|||||| 2024 SCHEDULE / RESULTS ANALYSIS

In a season with just four wins, it’s tough to find many positive storylines. Other than being a generally tough slate of games, like any Big Ten schedule will present, the only somewhat impressive win was on the road at Maryland in week seven. They snuck by Miami (OH) in week one and it’s a good thing because this could have been more off the rails than it ended up had they dropped that one. Then, we look to see if they deserved to win any of the games they lost, a key component of our ‘deserved Wins’ (dWIN) metric. It sure doesn’t look like it. Even the 10-point loss to Illinois in the final week of the season had a post-game win expectancy of just 2%. We tried. It was just a down year in Evanston.

||||||| POSITION GROUP CHECK-INS

OFFENSE: New offensive coordinator Zach Lujan had a lot of success running the South Dakota State offense. Everybody knew that this hire may take some time to show dividends. However, this was really, really bad. They missed on their hand-picked quarterback from the portal, Mike Wright, who was benched after giving away the game against Duke in week three. They turned to Jack Lausch to try to save things, but he struggled most of the time. When you don’t have your signal caller, it makes it tough to have much success, especially given the schedule they play here. This unit managed just 17.8 points per game (128th in FBS) and just 284.4 yards per game (132nd). They ran a very slow pace at 27.5 seconds per play (102nd) and both their rushing and passing efficiencies were in the triple-digits in terms of rankings amongst all FBS schools. Based on our metrics, the offensive line underperformed their talent level, which is not a good look for offensive line coach Bill O’Boyle. They came in at 51st in our pure talent rankings; but managed just 3.33 yards per carry (120th in FBS) and 79th in tackles for loss allowed. They need to improve their third down success rate (just 32.9%; ranked 129th) and red zone touchdown rate (39%; 132nd). Not to pile on, but they (unsurprisingly) didn’t create many explosive plays with just 24 plays of over 30 yards all season. They need a reset here and the hope is that incoming transfer and former SMU starting quarterback Preston Stone can come in and rekindle the magic he displayed for the Mustangs back in 2023. He struggled in ‘24 and lost his job to Kevin Jennings, who led SMU to the CFP. If they hit on Stone or Lausch ends up taking a big step forward, this can be saved.

||| QB

The Mike Wright experiment didn’t work out and Jack Lausch was inconsistent at best. In this offense, the quarterback is the key and without them hitting on all cylinders, struggles will ensue. That describes 2024. They will move forward with Lausch and bring in SMU transfer Preston Stone who rates highly from his ‘23 successes for the Mustangs. He lost his job last year and now looks to get one more shot at the helm of an offense.

||| RB

This group struggled to a 3.3 yards per carry average and found it tough sledding against some really top-notch opposition. They do get Cam Porter to stick around for another season and he is the leader of the group. Joseph Himon II (4.9 yards per carry average) and Caleb Komolafe will return as the primary backups. In fact, this entire room will return for 2025 and hope to see better success running the football.

||| WR

They had two good ones at the top of this room in ‘24 with A.J. Henning (former Michigan) operating out of the slot and leading the team with 59 grabs. Bryce Kirtz was limited to ten games due to lingering injuries. Neither was very efficient with their opportunities, but they provided the best chance. They both graduate out, as does Calvin Johnson II. Lujan brings in a former player of his, Griffin Wilde from South Dakota State, where he put up big numbers. Now, can he translate that to the Big Ten? As of now he appears to be the best bet to be the No. 1. Others will need to step into larger roles, including Frank Covey IV and Hayden Eligon II.

||| TE

Lujan’s past offenses have featured the tight end quite a bit. They just didn’t have the personnel here to make that an option with Thomas Gordon leading the way with 27 catches. They lose their top four players (all to graduation) and bring in just one in the portal (so far) and it’s Alex Lines from New Mexico State, somebody who doesn’t have much of a track record. Either there are plans to beef this up in the spring portal window or they feel Lawson Albright and Chris Petrucci is ready to take a step up.

||| OL

This was a rather talented group, but they did not perform at a high level together. Caleb Tiernan is an NFL caliber left tackle. Right guard Josh Thompson also rates highly. Tiernan is returning for ‘25 but Thompson is transferring out to LSU. This is one area that Braun has hit the portal as they bring in Liberty tackle Xavior Gray to take over for the graduating Ben Wrather. That is an upgrade. According to the player level data, they could use another upgrade over Jackson Carsello at center. This group needs to perform to their capabilities if this offense is to turn things around.

Update (3/6): They added T/G Martes Lewis from Minnesota in the portal. He has position flexibility and does have good experience. He is going to be in the mix to start at right guard or right tackle. He grades out at an 11.6 — so serviceable, but not likely a game-changer here.

DEFENSE: While these surface level numbers from 2024 certainly don’t jump off the page, it was an unspectacular group that did good things given the circumstances. Those circumstances included an offense that did not sustain drives and a schedule that included quite a few top offense. Tim McGarigle’s first shot as play caller here chose to sit back and keep things in front of them. They did limit big plays (allowing just 32 plays of over 30 yards) and they also kept opponents out of the red zone, which included just 4.2 trips/game. They limited opponents to 129.9 yards per game on the ground, which is impressive considering the Wildcats found themselves down quite a bit and facing the ‘wear down’ running focuses late in games. They will look to continue this approach and if the offense can help them out a bit more in ‘25, this could look even better.

||| DL

They ran a deeper rotation, not allowing too many snaps for anybody. Aidan Hubbard led this group as he racked up six sacks and was a constant presence on the line. They will lose two of their better players here with R.J. Pearson and Jaylen Pate graduating. Najee Story and Michael Kilbane are solid contributors who will return and they expect to see more from younger players like Anto Saka and Carmine Bastone to step up. No portal players here as of time of publish. This unit should maintain its level of play and has some improvement upside.

||| LB

Mac Uihlein is a rare 4-star prospect on this roster and he has developed into a mainstay on the field for the Wilcats. He will return for one more year in 2025. They will lose starting middle linebacker Xander Mueller, which is not ideal, however they do should be able to fill his role with somebody internally or Yanni Karlaftis, who comes in from Purdue. Kenny Soares Jr. showed well and should take another step forward on the outside. No big worries that this group will have much (any) downturn in performance.

||| DB

This was a solid group and also the most attacked by the portal. They will lose starting CB Theran Johnson to Oregon and starting FS Devin Turner to Baylor. That stings. They do bring back another solid CB in Josh Fussell, while SS Coco Azema has run out of eligibility. They address the loss of Johnson with Fred Davis coming in via the portal from Jacksonville State. They also have some highly-rated players lower in the rotation that should step into roles, including Braden Turner, Robert Fitzgerald and Damon Walters.

SPECIAL TEAMS: When you don’t have a great offense; you need really good special teams. This was not a really good special teams unit. The place kickers — Luke Akers and Jack Olsen — split time and were just okay, going a combined 17/24 and 0/2 from beyond 50 yards. Akers also punted, along with Hunter Renner, who were used a lot, but didn’t do a whole lot. Both Akers and Olsen return, while Renner hits the portal, leaving Akers as the primary punter heading into ‘25. They will lose a few of their return men, but have an exciting one in WR Drew Wagner coming up and ready to take on more. He had an average of 36 yards per return on five attempts (!) including a 72-yard return.

Reader feedback is requested and encouraged! Who knows these teams better than their passionate fan bases? We don’t pretend to know it all and would love your feedback. We will update/edit based (and credit) for anything that is brought to our attention. Let’s do this together…

|||||| TRANSFER PORTAL TRACKER

As many quality academic institutions have shown, they don’t really use the portal to refresh the roster — because they really can’t. The key is to keep players around and strategically fill in holes, targeting graduates. They have done a really nice job of that thus far. This may be a bit skewed by QB Preston Stone’s high rating that he’ll need to validate in his return to the field. The pick-up of Fred Davis eases the pain of the loss of Theran Johnson to Oregon. They are putting a lot of faith in WR Griffin Wilde coming in from South Dakota State to become a go-to weapon in the Big Ten.

Below is a screen shot of the full, live Transfer Portal Tracker over at CFBDepth.com. Click the image or the button below to view it in its entirety…

2025 Northwestern Portal Tracker >

|||||| 2025 RECRUITING CLASS

This seems about right, though that 27th ranked class specific to offense. This class does not feature any 4-star+ players, but they did get some high 3-stars and, well, they are pretty used to getting less desired players at this stage and developing them into quality contributors.

Here is a snapshot of the 2025 Recruiting Class+ with a link to the live page with updates throughout the cycle:

2025 Northwestern Recruiting Class+ >

|||||| 2025 SCHEDULE LOOK AHEAD

They open 2025 on the road in New Orleans against Tulane. That is a tough place to go when you’d like to get things turned around. They host Oregon in week three before the first bye week. They avoid a trip to Los Angeles for the UCLA game off the bye, but do have to travel there for week 11 against USC following the second bye week. They keep Purdue on the schedule, which is good, though, they are expected to be improved. They have to travel to Happy Valley for a game at Penn State as well. A similarly rough slate here. Can we find six wins? Probably only if they can sneak that Tulane opener.

There is a lot of movement and decisions to be made throughout the off-season, including more portal moves, winter workouts and spring ball. Get all caught up with the full-on State of the Chart Magazine coming in July. If you missed the ad before, get more information and give us your e-mail to stay in the loop on everything SOTC!

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