SOTC Update: Ole Miss Rebels
Lane Kiffin has no problem building a roster loaded with talent. He also has not been able to get the Rebels over the hump. This is the State of the Chart update for the Ole Miss Rebels.
Ole Miss Rebels
State of the Chart™ Recap Edition
Live All-In Ranking: 13th
Offense: 5th
Defense: 32nd
2024 Results: 10-3 (5-3 in SEC)
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|||||| STATE OF THE CHART™ SUMMARY
Lane Kiffin has developed a well-deserved reputation for having some fun, accumulating tons of talent, teasing this fan base and ultimately coming up short when it matters most. This was a top-five roster talent-wise in 2024 and of the three losses posted, only one was expected. They dealt with some accusations of “gamesmanship” (read: “faking injuries”) which became a storyline eventually swept under the rug for more sound bytes and X posts detailing how tough the SEC is and how this Rebels team, despite those three losses, are one of the top 12 teams and should be included in the CFP. According to our talent ratings and dWINs metric; we’d have to agree. But, you need to finish games on the field. The offense is unique and seemingly unstoppable, at least for entire games. They were slowed enough by Kentucky and Florida to earn upset victories. Jaxson Dart was the perfect quarterback for this offense and they put up the numbers. The defense was super-talented, pinned their ears back and were relentless in their attack of opposing quarterbacks. The specialists and special teams were good. It sure sounds like a super-successful season. If not for those three losses, it would have been. So, we’ll do it all again in 2025. A new re-loaded roster full of talent must now rally around Austin Simmons, who is taking over under/behind center. The Rebels just need to find a way to win those toss-ups and stay at 1-2 losses. That will get them in the playoff and then…you never know.
|||||| HEAD COACH AND COACHING STAFF
This write-up won't change much from the past. Lane Kiffin remains one of the best accumulators of talent in our game. The Ole Miss roster was over-loaded with talent and it (again) resulted in ten wins, but with no meaningful playoff participation. Kiffin continues to put out exciting products, winning a lot of games but always seems to lose the one or two that he just can't. In '24 it was Kentucky and Florida. Who will it be in '25?
Coaching Staff Notes/Changes:
Dane Stevens, one of the youngest offensive play callers in the game, is headed to the Grove to join up with Lane Kiffin and Charlie Weis Jr. He was most recently at FCS West Georgia as their offensive coordinator. He is just 28 years old and already held a job at USC already. Talk about building up a resume and learning from some of the best. He will serve as a “passing game specialist” in his return to Oxford.
The rest of this staff remains largely the same. Charlie Weis Jr. will remain the “co-offensive coordinator” and play caller on offense. Pete Golding is the “co-defensive coordinator” who will draw up the schemes and plays on the defensive side.
Note: This is a “dynamic” article; meaning we will update any information that comes in this “off-season” and post a note when impactful moves are made or news breaks.
|||||| 2024 SCHEDULE / RESULTS ANALYSIS
This slate ended up as our 35th most difficult in all in 2024. It got off to a really easy start with the Rebels rolling through to a 4-0 record by a combined score of 220-22. Perhaps that cake walk to begin the season had them under-prepared to take on the Wildcats of Kentucky, who rolled into the Grove and left with a stunning 20-17 win. They needed a big bounce back against South Carolina in Columbia and somehow held the Gamecocks to just three points. The loss to LSU the following week in Death Valley is understandable, but still very disappointing as the post-game win expectancy (PGWE) shows they really should have won that game (73%). They took the well-timed week eight bye to prep for a three-game stretch, culminating in a big game against Georgia. They won on three and now entered the week 12 bye with momentum. Just get by Florida and Mississippi State and a spot in the CFP is theirs. And, that’s when the thing happened. The Gators, who turned a big corner and were playing a lot better football — beat up on the Rebels and ended any hopes of a run in the post-season. Kiffin took to social media as is customary to argue that the quality wins and the general gauntlet of an SEC schedule should get them in. Spoiler: it didn’t. They finished with a blowout of Duke in a meaningless Bowl game and the story remains the same for 2024.
Our “deserved Wins” metric (dWIN) does tend to agree with Kiffin. This team was better than a 10-win team. Florida was the only game they really truly “should” have lost. The Kentucky game was a toss-up. Sure, it shouldn’t have been, but when the dust settled, the Rebels dominated at times, accumulating a +110 weighted spread mark (actual results against Vegas line). They were fortunate with a +10 turnover margin, but overall this is more of a 12-win team and had enough talent to hang with the best of the best in the CFP.
||||||| POSITION GROUP CHECK-INS
OFFENSE: It’s kind of amazing to think that an offense can continuously be a top ten, even top five total offense with the kind of offensive line they field. However, that is how this is designed. They run it 54% of the time. Most are designed, but the passing game is where the bread is buttered. Their scheme is quick passes, getting the ball into the playmakers’ hands. They scheme up deep passes as opponents start to creep up to take it away…then, BOOM. That’s the beauty of this thing and it always seems to work. Sure, having veteran Jaxson Dart running things makes it all the better. Then a bunch of talented backs and a room full of All-American pass catchers drives it home. It’s a sure-fire recipe for success. They finished with 38.6 points per game (3rd in FBS), 350.8 pass yards per game (2nd in FBS) and the most explosive unit in the game with 99 plays going for 30+ yards - with 82 of them coming in the passing game. No reason to think that is going to change, though they’ll need Austin Simmons to run things as Dart’s eligibility has expired. We have no reason to think he won’t be able to handle that duty.
||| QB
Jaxson Dart was a perfect fit for this offense. He executed it to perfection and utilized his athletic ability to maximize opportunities when/if things broke down. It will be difficult to find a full replacement. Though, Kiffin thinks Austin Simmons is that guy. If he is, you can expect similar, big numbers of the offense to remain in lock-step as Simmons earned some quality playing time as the heir apparent. Who are we to question Lane Kiffin’s quarterback evaluation skills? We’ll go with it and this thing is most likely to just keep on rollin’. Former top prospect Walker Howard, who came in from LSU is heading back out to Louisiana to get his opportunity. They bring in Pierce Clarkson from Louisville to be the backup to Simmons in 2025.
||| RB
There is never likely to be a true “bellcow” back in this offense. Even though they run it a lot, it often comes from the QB spot. This crowded room was eventually led by Henry Parrish Jr. in his final season of eligibility. Many others chipped in and the room is left a bit of a ghost town with graduations and transfers looking for bigger roles. A couple names that survived are Domonique Thomas and Logan Diggs. They will compete with transfers-in Jordon Simmons (Michigan State) and Kewan Lacy (Mizzou) for touches in 2025. There will never be a lack of talent, but who emerges as the lead is anybody’s guess at this point. If you are looking for an early prediction, we’d go with Diggs’ return from injury to get first crack as the veteran of the group. Lacy is an exciting young back who showed some stuff as a true at Mizzou in ‘24 but is likely going to take a smaller role this season and burst on the scene when Thomas, Diggs and Simmons exhaust their eligibility following ‘25.
||| WR
This is one of the most populated and talented rooms in the country. They stockpile dynamic receivers to fit their high-flying offense. Tre Harris battled injuries but still managed to eclipse the 1,000-yard mark. Jordan Watkins was a deep threat and scored nine times. Sophomore Cayden Lee operated in the slot and really came on as a reliable underneath safety valve for Dart. Antwane Wells Jr. came from South Carolina and showed out. Lee is the one from the group returning and so they must re-load. They have started that process by bringing in five receivers in the portal, including De’Zhaun Stribling from OK State and Harrison Wallace III from Penn State. There are others and this room will go 7-8 deep again. They will be just fine despite losing six of their top seven.
||| TE
Caden Preiskorn came in from Memphis and lived up to the hype. He’s heading to the NFL a year early and it opens the door for Dae’Quan Wright, who split time with Prieskorn and put up similar receiving numbers. Wright shows as a more capable pass blocker. They went out to get Luke Hasz from Arkansas to play the second pass-catcher role similar to Wright a year ago. This will look very similar — no lost ground.
||| OL
According to our talent ratings, this was not a great group. In fact, they rate out in the middle of the pack in all of FBS and if we had to point to a reason for the three losses, it would have to be here. The offense is designed for quick passes and first options to be schemed open. Dart’s ability to improvise and use his legs is a big bonus. This line allowed 29 sacks (81st in FBS) and ranked nearly 100th in tackles for loss. It doesn’t impact the offense as a whole because of the design. They are losing four of five starters and plenty of backups are also running out of time at the college level. LT Diego Pounds is the one starter expected back. Again, he grades out as a slightly above average player. They have a few good ones coming in via the portal and this is likely to be an improved group when we get to the pre-season.
DEFENSE: Yeah, the Rebels are known for offense, but they also just so happen to have one of the most talent-laden defensive units in the game. Pete Golding, former Alabama coordinator has the pleasure of calling plays for a bunch of freak athletes on the field. They are relentless coming after the passer and with most teams trying to keep up with the fast-paced Ole Miss offense, the mistakes seem to come in droves. They led the nation in both tackles for loss and sacks. They completely smothered opposing run games, holding them to 2.29 yards per rush, which was also tops in the nation. That forces them to get one-dimensional and that’s when drawing up the pressure seems like a given. With that kind of talent level, you’ll notice quite a few of them heading to the next level early. The Rebels will just re-load in the portal and pick up right where they left off.
||| DL
This is where it all starts, on the defensive line. The top four here were just monsters. They combined for 29 sacks themselves. Those four are leaving, including three to NFL leaving eligibility on the table. They have a whole second wave chomping at the bit to get out there and become the next in line. They supplement in the portal with LSU’s Da’Shawn Womack and they get in Princewill Umanmielen from Nebraksa to help ease the loss of his brother (Princely) who is heading to the NFL in 2025 after an 11-sack 2024 season. It may take a few weeks, but this group should get to a level close to on par with this group from a year ago. Scary.
||| LB
This second-level was a great compliment to the front lines, bringing a second wave of relentless attack. Chris Paul Jr. and Suntarine Perkins combined for 17 more sacks. Khari Coleman was third in line and chipped in nicely. Perkins returns and they will need somebody to step up to replace Paul who heads to the NFL. Expect a slight step back, but they are also not likely done working in the portal either.
||| DB
Another super talented group led by cover cornerback Trey Amos and supported over the top by safeties John Saunders Jr. and Trey Washington. They had the extra challenge of teams consistently playing from behind and/or trying to keep pace with the Rebels offense and it skewed the final numbers. They will have a complete re-load with 8/9 moving on. This unit likely takes a step back with the volume of losses they are enduring.
SPECIAL TEAMS: Kicker Caden Davis and punter Fraser Martin were both very good. They both also will not be back. Their replacements are not likely in-house currently, so we’ll see if they utilize the portal to steal some specialists.
On a team with so many freak athletes, picking a punt returner should be as easy as throwing a dart. Micah Davis handled most of the returns and was just okay. He will return and likely hold down the role in 2025.
Reader feedback is requested and encouraged! Who knows these teams better than their passionate fan bases? We don’t pretend to know it all and would love your feedback. We will update/edit based (and credit) for anything that is brought to our attention. Let’s do this together…
|||||| TRANSFER PORTAL TRACKER
Ah, a fun little check-in on our “Portal King” from the past. He’s doing it again, folks. Not many are in the “green” at this point but Kiffin and company are once again bringing in loads of talent to join this roster. What ends up being the “problem” is that there are only so many snaps in the rotation and it takes an accountant to figure out how to keep everybody happy. The wide receiver position is one that they have always been loaded. That will be no different as the headliner of this portal haul is De’Shaun Stribling, coming in from Oklahoma State. It should be fun to see Harrison Wallace III unshackled from the Penn State limited passing scheme and into this wide open attack. They didn’t just focus on the offense as you’ll see plenty of plus-plus defenders coming in as well, including Da’shawn Womack from LSU and DB Kapena Gushiken from Washington State. Those two have multiple years of eligibility left, if they so choose to use them.
Sure, the losses can’t be ignored, but again, when you are loading up every year, your depth of talent allows for some really good players to move on to schools in the hopes to actually find the field and meaningful playing time. RB Rashod Amos is a perfect example. He came to Oxford after starring at Miami (OH) in 2023. He didn’t get the run he’d hoped for (9 carries) and with no path to the top of the chart, he’ll move to Memphis as a likely starter. Because he was 4-5 on the Ole Miss depth chart, his loss won’t hurt nearly as bad as it did the RedHawks when he bolted following a 1,075-yard, 13 touchdown season.
All told, they rank in the top-ten again in total “portal churn” and they are certainly never done adding talent. We’ll get you a final “Portal King” crowned when this whole craziness comes to a conclusion in time for our State of the Chart™ magazine launch in July.
Below is a screen shot of the full, live Transfer Portal Tracker over at CFBDepth.com. Click the image or the button below to view it in its entirety…
|||||| 2025 RECRUITING CLASS
Who says you have to pick between the portal and high school recruiting? That’s non-sense. As you just ready above, Kiffin certainly priorizes the portal as a roster-building technique — but the staff is still bringing in a borderline top-25 2025 class as well. Led by five-star WR Caleb Cunningham, a super athlete out of Ackerman, MS. He projects as one of those “hybrids” who can move inside and outside, create mis-matches and take underneath throws to the house at any time. He may not do it right away with so much veteran talent ahead of him, but he will certainly be set up for success in the near future.
The secondary remains a focus area for the roster building crew here as they have landed four, 4-star defensive backs from all over the country (AR, TX, DC and VA) to show their coverage and evidence that this really is a national brand.
Here is a snapshot of the 2025 Recruiting Class+ with a link to the live page with updates throughout the cycle:
|||||| 2025 SCHEDULE LOOK AHEAD
Looking ahead to the ‘25 slate we see a little more balance to things, which may be a good thing. It seems they were lulled to sleep by that easy four-game start in ‘24 and awoken to a sudden defeat at the hands of Kentucky. You better believe this team will be prepared to go into Lexington in week two after a tune-up against Georgia State in week one. They add a very quality opponent from the non-conference with Tulane coming in. That will be a good test to keep them sharp for LSU, who they get in Oxford this year. If they can get to the week six bye at 5-0; this is set up for success. They’ll need to avoid the inexcusable losses to go with the likely one — winning in Athens will be really tough. Every other game is winnable and if they can get the sure-to-be toss-up game; they should have enough to warrant a spot in the second version of the 12-team playoff.
There is a lot of movement and decisions to be made throughout the off-season, including more portal moves, winter workouts and spring ball. Get all caught up with the full-on State of the Chart Magazine coming in July. If you missed the ad before, get more information and give us your e-mail to stay in the loop on everything SOTC!
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