SOTC Update: Penn State Nittany Lions

James Franklin had the Nittany Lions right there in 2024. What needs to happen to get over the hump in 2025? This is the State of the Chart™ update for Penn State.

Feb 21, 2025

State of the Chart™ Recap Edition

Live All-In Ranking: 6th
Offense: 6th
Defense: 9th
2024 Results: 13-3 (8-1 in Big Ten)

All of the information that follows is just the beginning and everything will be updated in our first edition of the State of the Chart™ digital magazine. Slated for a launch in July of 2025, learn more about this and shoot us your email to be kept up-to-speed on launch dates and receive sneak previews…

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|||||| STATE OF THE CHART™ SUMMARY

The Nittany Lions are without question amongst the elite again and making it to the CFP Semi-finals is a big step. They have been left out of any meaningful post-season games for many years prior and that was certainly getting old. Now, the mantra of ‘getting over the hump’ is going to take over. There was a lot to like about 2025. The growth on offense with new offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki is what pushed this from a very good team, to a great team. Tom Allen’s defense was all over the place and despite a few let downs, were dominant. They finished +11 in turnover margin which could be considered ‘lucky’ unless they earn that distinction. Abdul Carter continued his ascent to stardom and it allowed others on the defense to shine along with him. Allen bolted for Clemson after the season and while that could have been an impactful loss on the coaching staff, Franklin moved quickly to bring home one of the few that maybe even better at this than Allen. Jim Knowles is heading home and wants to help this Nittany Lions squad ‘get over the hump’ and take home a National Title. They will have to deal with some turnover on that side of the ball, but they are always equipped to re-load and be just fine. The offense seemingly made a pact to all return to run it back and ‘get over the hump’ (there it is again!). Quarterback Drew Allar and two-headed monster of running backs — Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen — shunned the NFL to return. They will have to replace their top two receivers, but they hit the portal to take care of that. 4/5 of the offensive line is returning as well. It’s all set up in 2025 for this team to…well, you know by now.

|||||| HEAD COACH AND COACHING STAFF

James Franklin enters his 12th season at the helm here and while his team has always been good, very good and even great at times, they just haven’t made it over the hump. He’s made the right coordinator hires with Andy Kotelnicki leading the offense and now bringing Jim Knowles home and away from Ohio State. They are keeping players around and supplementing as needed via the portal. They always recruit and develop. 2025 may just be the year.

Coaching Staff Notes/Changes:

Tom Allen spent one season running the defense and did a great job before Dabo Swinney lured him away to Clemson. Franklin is able to lure Jim Knowles away from the National Champions, back home to try to help get this Nittany Lions team over that proverbial hump that we keep referencing. Knowles is from Philly and brings a wealth of knowledge, success and hardware with him. Plus, he’ll be working with a dynamic group of athletes, probably second-only to his Ohio State horses in 2024. There should be no drop-off in production, havoc and dominance going forward.
Perhaps just as important as the Knowles hire is the retention of offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki. He was hired last off-season away from Kansas and he has done a fabulous job of turning this offense around completely. He is innovative and has a knack for setting up plays well in advance. He is a hot head coaching candidate, but he (so far) is sticking around with the Nittany Lions. It certainly doesn’t hurt to have his veteran quarterback, Drew Allar, also seeing this through.
The other move that was made is in response to running backs coach Ja’Juan Seider moving to South Bend to take the Notre Dame RB job. And, that’s bringing in respected and admired, former Temple head coach Stan Drayton as his replacement. Seider is certainly up-and-coming, but Drayton has been there and this may end up being a slight upgrade, all told.

Note: This is a “dynamic” article; meaning we will update any information that comes in this “off-season” and post a note when impactful moves are made or news breaks.

|||||| 2024 SCHEDULE / RESULTS ANALYSIS

The goal was to get to that Ohio State matchup in week ten at 7-0. They will have had their two bye weeks and they will be ready to go. That sets them up for success because everybody knew with this schedule, two losses gets them a CFP berth. They accomplished that, with only slight heart attacks early against Bowling Green (which was squashed in the second half) and a little jet lag leading to an overtime, come from behind victory at the Coliseum against USC. They avoided a ‘look ahead’ in Madison the week before hosting the Buckeyes, taking care of business against a down Wisconsin team. Then, they battled but ultimately fell to the Buckeyes, in a game that they really deserved to lose according to the post-game win expectancy (PGWE) numbers. They then rolled through other Big Ten foes, escaping Minnesota with a one-point win and then throttling Maryland the same day that Ohio State lost to Michigan. That gave this team the berth into the Big Ten Championship game with Oregon. That turned into a track meet that Oregon ultimately pulled out. They didn’t get the bye, but made the playoff — mission accomplished. They had the best patch to the semi-finals as they rolled through SMU and muddled through Boise State before meeting their match against Notre Dame, a game that really could have went either way. That’s the hump. That’s what they need to get over.

||||||| POSITION GROUP CHECK-INS

OFFENSE: When Andy Kotelnicki was hired to take this job, it was because of his overall offensive prowess. He was not going to be able to take the same approach he did with the success earned at Kansas. He needed to adapt to the personnel. Wisely, he stuck with a run-first approach with two horses in the backfield (Nick Singleton and Kaytron Allen) and relied upon his veteran quarterback to make some plays when the time was right. Kotelnicki deserves a lot of credit for scheming receivers open in those times and getting this offense from the doldrums to within shouting distance of the top 25 nationally from a points per game perspective. The big offensive line set the tone with the two backs getting chunk yardage on early downs and then Allar connected with tight end Tyler Warren time and time again to move the ball. They were not considered ‘explosive’ but that’s not their game. They did finish drives in the red zone and overall put together a big turn around to get this unit up to par (or at least close) to those guys on the other side of the ball. That breeds success. Speaking of success, they are getting back that quarterback Allar and both horses in the backfield, all committed to stick around for another year, shunning the NFL for a year.

||| QB

Drew Allar stepped up and is now fully living up to his billing. He handles this offense in a way that fits the mold. He created more plays and extended drives. He also limited mistakes. He decided to return for another year and will lead the offense once again. Starter-worthy backup Beau Pribula is headed to Mizzou, leaving Ethan Grunkemeyer as the likely backup and potential heir apparent for 2026 and beyond.

||| RB

The two-headed monster of Kaytron Allen and Nicholas Singleton were again, great. Both achieved 1,000+ yard seasons with Allen taking a few more carries only because of one missed game from Singleton. Both decided to shun the NFL and return (aided by a solid pay day from the Collective) and will “run” it back. They bring all of the backups back and Corey Smith, a 4-star true freshman in ‘24 appears to be next in line after Allen/Singleton do go play on Sundays.

||| WR

They needed more from this group and they got it from Harrison Wallace III and to a lesser extent, Omari Evans. Both are leaving via the portal after possibly feeling left out due to all of the attention (and targets) paid to TE Tyler Warren. Or, it could just be the run-first mentality limiting general opportunities. Those two are replaced with Devonte Ross (Troy) and Kyron Hudson (USC), who team up with Liam Clifford in the slot. This group will need to play more of a role with Warren moving on.

||| TE

Tyler Warren was as much a part of the success of this offense as any one player in the country. He put up huge receiving numbers and didn’t have to come out of the game when there was a blocking scheme needed to help keep defenses honest. Though, Khalil Dinkins handled that role primarily and they did play two tight ends at times. They have more highly touted players in the queue here but nobody can be expected to be Tyler Warren. He heads to the NFL and will be sorely missed.

||| OL

The big guys up front did their job both creating holes and schemes for Allen/Singleton and protecting Allar, who was sacked just 20 times in 2024. Four of the five starters are coming back. RG Sam Wormley is headed to the NFL and will need to be replaced. Alex Birchmeier and/or Cooper Cousins will battle for that spot if they fill it in-house. LT Drew Shelton is the only lower performing member of the group according to player-level data. The continuity is there and if health cooperates, they should be set up for even more success in 2025.

DEFENSE: Another smothering group as Tom Allen’s group did exactly what they needed to do…dominate on all three levels. The dominance was most obvious up front in the front seven. They completely shut down opposing running games, allowing just 101.9 yards per game (3.1 yards per attempt), ranked in the top ten nationally. That forced opponents to get into obvious passing situations and then the pressure was turned up and the secondary didn’t allow much space for quick throws. That is a recipe for success. Abdul Carter was a game wrecker all season, accumulating 13 sacks himself. He led a group of teammates who racked up 119 (!) tackles for loss (ranked 2nd in the land). Beyond the obvious and surface-level metrics, they did what any great defense does; limited big plays and tightened up when it matters most, in the red zone. They allowed just a 41% touchdown rate for opponents when they did make it in the red zone - tops in the nation. If you were looking for a wart, there were a couple of games that the didn’t dominate and actually seemed lost at times. That was the USC game (30 points) and Oregon (45 points) in the Big Ten Championship. Allen pulled all the right strings in his one season here. He heads to Clemson to take over as their defensive coordinator and Jim Knowles is coming in. We don’t expect any down turn despite some key losses. They will re-load and continue to cause many problems for opposing offenses.

||| DL

Abdul Carter continued his ascent to star status and was a game-wrecker from start to finish, even battling through injuries at the end. Zane Durant and Dani Dennis-Sutton, along with Dvon J-Thomas all were key contributors towards this smothering and dominating front line. They will lose Carter, J-Thomas and a few others to the NFL and graduation. It will be ‘next man up’ here and is sure to be another force and strength of the defensive unit with some new faces causing problems.

Update (2/26): EDGE Smith Vilbert entered the portal as a grad transfer. He played a limited role, but did play in all 16 games in 2024.

||| LB

Kobe King was all over the field and one of the better linebackers in the nation. He’s heading to the NFL, leaving a year of eligibility on the table. They’ll need somebody to step up in the middle to keep this all together. There are plenty of candidates, but none as obvious as King. Tony Rojas and Dominic DeLuca return and will take another step forward. Expect to see more of Anthony Speca and DaKaari Nelson, who are blossoming stars and likely the ‘next up’ in the rotation.

||| DB

This is another talented group that took full advantage of the work that was done in front of them. In the games that got sideways though (USC/Oregon), they were a bit exposed. The injury to SS Kevin Winston Jr. certainly didn’t help things. With NB Jaylen Reed, CB Jalen Kimber and Winston Jr. all headed to the NFL and promising CB Cam Miller bolting for Rutgers, this group will look different in 2025. They bring in King Mack from Alabama, who has a high upside. Work to do here to keep it at a high level.

SPECIAL TEAMS: The special teams units as a whole were not all that impressive. Ryan Barker ended up getting the job done as the place kicker and Riley Thompson was no slouch as a punter. Zion Tracy and Kaden Saunders shared the punt return duties and did just fine; but nothing spectacular. Punt coverage (again) was good; not great. Everybody returns so this should continue to grow and they may be asked to be a bit more dynamic to chip in in 2025.

Reader feedback is requested and encouraged! Who knows these teams better than their passionate fan bases? We don’t pretend to know it all and would love your feedback. We will update/edit based (and credit) for anything that is brought to our attention. Let’s do this together…

|||||| TRANSFER PORTAL TRACKER

Franklin uses the portal strategically and really focuses in on need to get certain position groups where they need to be. This year, they are grabbing a couple more weapons for Allar and that passing game with Devonte Ross coming in from Troy and Kyron Hudson from USC, who caught the go ahead touchdown late in the game against the Lions in 2024, before the comeback and eventual OT win. The losses include backup, but fully capable starter, quarterback Beau Pribula, who is going to get his shot at Mizzou. Harrison Wallace III is a disappointing loss to Ole Miss and a couple of solid defensive depth pieces are moving addresses with CB Cam Miller (Rutgers) and LB Tyrece Mills (UConn) moving to find playing time. Overall, this is not a debilitating portal season.

Below is a screen shot of the full, live Transfer Portal Tracker over at CFBDepth.com. Click the image or the button below to view it in its entirety…

Live Penn State Portal Tracker >

|||||| 2025 RECRUITING CLASS

Once again, this will end up as a top ten class. As we know, with the proper development this can end up as the best in the business. The Nittany Lions certainly love their tight ends and if they can find the next Tyler Warren, they are certainly going to do everything they can to lock him up. They bring in four from this class, led by Andrew Olesh, an in-state recruit with big upside. He is the No. 3 ranked tight end on 247Sports and the best player in Pennsylvania. Another big in-state get is linebacker Cameron Smith, who originally committed to Duke before a big senior season raised his stock and now he’ll attempt to become the next great Nittany Lion linebacker. They did not clearly address the quarterback position and that could be a vote of confidence for Ethan Grunkemeyer, who came in as a 4-star recruit in the ‘24 class.

Here is a snapshot of the 2025 Recruiting Class+ with a link to the live page with updates throughout the cycle:

2025 Penn State Recruiting Class+ >

|||||| 2025 SCHEDULE LOOK AHEAD

They played a top ten schedule in 2024, so this should be a bit of a break, no? You can’t really get an “easy” slate in Big Ten. This year, they get three cake walk non-conference games to get off to a sure-fire 3-0 start before the week four bye to prepare for Oregon, who is coming to Happy Valley. They then travel cross-country to Los Angeles again, but this time they’ll take on UCLA. They have to play at Iowa and at Ohio State with a bye sandwiched in between. That’s a bit brutal. Indiana awaits after that gauntlet and that is clearly no longer a game to take lightly. They’ll finish up with middle-of-the-pack Big Ten opponents, one of which is sure to force the use of antacids as they hope to be in a position to return to the Big Ten Championship game, which is a return ticket to the CFP dance.

There is a lot of movement and decisions to be made throughout the off-season, including more portal moves, winter workouts and spring ball. Get all caught up with the full-on State of the Chart Magazine coming in July. If you missed the ad before, get more information and give us your e-mail to stay in the loop on everything SOTC!

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