SOTC Update: Vanderbilt Commodores

Clark Lea promised to make Vanderbilt into a national power. Was 2024 just the first step? This is the State of the Chart update for the Commodores.

Feb 16, 2025

State of the Chart™ Recap Edition

Live All-In Ranking: 47th
Offense: 51st
Defense: 60th
2024 Results: 7-6 (3-5 in SEC)

All of the information that follows is just the beginning and everything will be updated in our first edition of the State of the Chart™ digital magazine. Slated for a launch in July of 2025, learn more about this and shoot us your email to be kept up-to-speed on launch dates and receive sneak previews…

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|||||| STATE OF THE CHART™ SUMMARY

Clark Lea’s program is headed in the right direction. Despite not doing anything spectacularly (as a team), they nabbed a signature win over Alabama in 2024. Deemed ‘just the start’ by Lea, there was also an inexplicable loss to Georgia State in that mixed bag of results. They should have closed out Mizzou in week four and been sitting at that Texas showdown in week nine undefeated. Instead they had two losses. The Las Cruces influence including special advisor Jerry Kill, offensive coordinator Tim Beck, quarterback Diego Pavia and tight end Eli Stowers made an immediate impact. Though none of the surface stats produced by either side of the ball jumped off the page, this was a legitimate 8+ win team despite posting a 7-6 final record. They faded down the stretch but finished with a flurry posting a bowl game win over Georgia Tech. The offensive line was suspect and resulted in some highlight improvisational plays from Pavia, who has developed a reputation as ‘gamer’ in its truest sense. He won a legal battle to earn another season of eligibility and will return for 2025. He adds in another former New Mexico State weapon in Trent Hudson, who comes in from Mississippi State where he didn’t see the field. Another step is needed to be taken on the staircase to the top of the college football world. They have quite a few steps to go, but at least they are going up.

|||||| HEAD COACH AND COACHING STAFF

Clark Lea needed a big step to show he truly is the right man for this tough job. He made a couple of notable moves that paid off. First, he took the defense back under his own direction. And, he brought in Jerry Kill to help with some organizational needs. Oh, and getting dynamic quarterback Diego Pavia to run the offense was another one. Seven wins. Can he continue to move it forward in 2025? Well, he really should if he is to keep his promise to make this program into one of the nation’s elite. He vowed that the signature win over Alabama was just the beginning.

Coaching Staff Notes/Changes:

The New Mexico State model came to Nashville in 2024 and Jerry Kill’s consultancy proved big early dividends. One of those structural changes is, well, having a lot of coaches. The Commodores have one of the largest “on-field” staffs in the country, including assistant position coaches at most positions. Most of that staff is returning for 2025 to keep this ship going in the right direction.
Tim Beck is the offensive coordinator and he came over with Kill from the Aggies. He has worked wonders with Diego Pavia and company in one season. With Pavia being granted the extra year of eligibility, we get to see if this offense can take another step forward under Beck’s leadership. As mentioned, the ‘Dores do not employ a ‘defensive coordinator’ as Lea handles the play calling and oversight of the defense.

Update (3/3/25): Lea announced that he will be handing play-calling duties over to defensive coordinator Steve Gregory after one season handling that responsibility and getting the defensive unit back on track.

Note: This is a “dynamic” article; meaning we will update any information that comes in this “off-season” and post a note when impactful moves are made or news breaks.

|||||| 2024 SCHEDULE / RESULTS ANALYSIS

Just about every SEC slate is going to end up in the top 35 of our Strength of Schedule measurement (SOS+). This is no exception. They had their three easy non-conference games (Alcorn State, Georgia State and Ball State). Wait a second. They lost one of those? In one of the most inexplicable results of the 2025 season, as good as it was for the Commodores, that week three loss in Atlanta to Georgia State looks worse and worse. Especially after you escape with a big power four win over Virginia Tech in week one. Immediately following that loss to the Panthers, they should have closed it out against Mizzou on the road, but let it slip away. They sat at the week five bye with a 2-2 record and it really should have been 4-0. They get the signature win in week six off the bye week against Alabama and then sneak out a win in Lexington before Ball State gave them some trouble in week eight. That was a ‘look ahead’ spot with Texas looming large the next week. Could/should be 7-0. Then, the 3-point heartbreaker to the Longhorns. They struggled down the stretch, losing their final three SEC games to solid opponents and they were really in all of those (less, South Carolina, who really beat the brakes off of them). They finish up with a solid bowl game victory over Georgia Tech and…well, it was a good season. Could have been better. Their ‘deserved Wins’ (dWIN) metric has them at 8.4, so they definitely deserved a little better.

||||||| POSITION GROUP CHECK-INS

OFFENSE: Hidden behind the fun exterior of the Diego Pavia show is some real warts with this offensive unit. The offensive line, which employs the unique “side switch” method that moves the tackles and guards between both sides of the line, struggled for the most part. The underlying data suggests that they were just okay (at best). They ran one of the slowest (59.9 plays per game) and run heavy offenses (60.5% run play rate) in the country. Pavia did a lot of that running. When you do that, you need to see a better than 3.83 yards per carry rate (96th in FBS). Sure, they played some stiff defenses along the way, but that really needs to improve. The passing game was certainly more efficient, but they did so little of it that it didn’t impact the bottom line as much. Pavia’s ability to improvise really helped that. Tight end Eli Stowers was by far the focal point of the passing game, but they lacked a true outside or deep threat to compliment. They lacked explosive plays, managing just 36 plays over 30 yards (114th). They made up for some of that with a good red zone touchdown conversion rate of 71%. All told, this unit did just enough to get by to be a .500 team. If they can get better line play and success in the run game on early downs, it can open up a new world of possibilities.

||| QB

Diego Pavia is fun, electric and a ‘gamer’. He also took the legal approach to earn another year of eligibility and will be back to lead this offense in 2025. He does a lot himself and if he can find another threat to chip in, this could go to another level. Backup Nate Johnson is heading back to Utah where he came from in last years portal haul. Blaze Berlowitz will battle Drew Dickey and Brennan Storer for the backup role (as of now).

||| RB

True sophomore Sed Alexander led this group and did the best he could against some stacked boxes and top-level opposing front sevens. His 3.4 yards per carry leaves some to be desired, but he runs hard and also chips in nicely out of the backfield as a receiver. He’ll return as the top option here. AJ Newberry showed well in a backup role and will return as well. The lone loss is Moni Jones, who graduates, leaving Chase Gillespie as the third-stringer. No changes to the personnel, but the results must improve.

||| WR

Nobody from this group really showed out and you couldn’t really blame them due to the lack of volume coming their way. Quincy Skinner and Junior Sherrill were the leaders and improvised well along with Pavia, but neither topped 30 grabs. Skinner graduates. They need a threat on the outside and they think they have him in former New Mexico State (and Mississippi State) transfer-in, Trent Hudson. He didn’t see the field for the Bulldogs, but this coaching staff, including offensive coordinator Tim Beck is very familiar with his work from their time together at New Mexico State. Hudson caught 35 passes for 551 yards and ten scores from Pavia in Las Cruces in 2023. He should be the number one here with Sherrill and Richie Hoskins chipping in as second and third options.

||| TE

Eli Stowers was the focal point of this offense in 2024. His 50 grabs for 644 yards and five touchdowns led the team. He also does well when asked to block (which was not very often). He shunned the NFL for another shot at this. The former quarterback at Texas A&M could even take this to another level in 2025. Cole Spence was the blocking tight end on run plays and he did his job well there. He did also grab two touchdowns in the passing game. This entire room returns and it is an important position group to getting this offense into the next gear.

||| OL

When watching those Diego Pavia highlights of his improvisation is (often times) a result of the lack of effectiveness up front. This group shifts the tackles and guards to both sides, effectively splitting snaps between the two. It didn’t seem to work wonders for them and they’ll need to bring in some new faces to get this improved. They have done that through the portal, bringing in four transfers, led by Jordan White, a guard from Liberty. They lose three starters and that isn’t necessarily a bad thing. Expect this to be better in 2025.

Update (2/26): The ‘Dores added another solid option via the portal as tackle Bryce Henderson joins up from FCS South Dakota. He is very likely to fill the open left tackle spot vacated by Gunnar Hansen.

DEFENSE: Clark Lea’s defense was good enough but didn’t do a whole lot special. The final numbers all ended up towards the front of the ‘average’ category but didn’t get anything over the hump. The one area they seemed to struggle was getting off the field on third down. Opponents managed a 47.5% third down conversion rate against them. Had that improved, some of those surface stats could have inched their way into the top 25. While maybe boring, they did limit big, explosive plays and kept the play in front of them for the most part.

Update (3/3/25): Lea announced that he will be handing play-calling duties over to defensive coordinator Steve Gregory after one season handling that responsibility and getting the defensive unit back on track.

||| DL

Miles Capers, Khordae Sydnor and Yilanan Outtara were the primary players on this defensive line. They were solid but didn’t finish off the quarterback enough to really set the offenses back. They get a good amount returning, including Capers and Sydnor. They bring in Keanu Koht from Alabama, a former 4-star recruit, looking for the kind of playing time to make in impact. Aaron Bryant is coming in from Texas in a similar situation as a highly regarded recruit looking for an opportunity.

||| LB

This was another solid but unspectacular group of players. Nick Rinaldi managed six sacks to lead the team. Langston Patterson and Bryan Longwell showed well in run defense and together this group made a solid threesome. All of them return for 2025, as does primary backups Prince Kollie and Bryce Cowan. Another year under their belts and with some growth expected, these five should team up to form a good group going forward.

||| DB

This was one of the better units and CJ Taylor was their best overall defensive player from his strong safety position. Randon Fontenette played the STAR spot well as a true sophomore and he should continue to develop with experience. They will lose Taylor and another really good safety in De’Rickey Wright. They also lose some depth as role players are moving on. They do get back Fontenette and CB Martel Hight. They hit the portal to bring in two quality players in CB Jordan Matthews (Tennessee) and CJ Heard (FAU) to bolster things.

SPECIAL TEAMS: The offense was not great. The defense was good, but not great. So, how did they win games? Special teams and specialists certainly contributed. They have a combined specialist rating of 4th in the nation. Staring with kicker Brock Taylor, who was one of the best in the country despite a miss that could have locked up the Mizzou game (and the Virginia Tech game in regulation). He hit 5-of-6 from beyond 50 yards and was a weapon. Jesse Mirco was a good punter. Martel Hight developed into one of the best punt returners in the game. He took one to the house and averaged 14.7 yards per return attempt. Taylor is only a sophmore and Mirco returns despite an advanced age. Hight has two more years remaining. They are bringing in Washington State transfer Nick Haberer to compete with Mirco for the punting job.

Reader feedback is requested and encouraged! Who knows these teams better than their passionate fan bases? We don’t pretend to know it all and would love your feedback. We will update/edit based (and credit) for anything that is brought to our attention. Let’s do this together…

|||||| TRANSFER PORTAL TRACKER

Overall they are losing some talent at this stage, but they also are strategically adding where needed. Alan Wright has a high rating but never really contributed and his loss is skewing these numbers quite a bit. Jordan White is big pickup from Liberty to provide a much needed boost to the offensive line. Trent Hudson reunites with Diego Pavia after a stop at Mississippi State. Jordan Matthews (Tennessee) and CJ Heard (FAU) are quality players coming in to jolt the secondary, each with three years of eligibility remaining. their rating has them in the middle of the pack of the SEC in the portal game thus far.

Below is a screen shot of the full, live Transfer Portal Tracker over at CFBDepth.com. Click the image or the button below to view it in its entirety…

Live, Vanderbilt Portal Tracker >

|||||| 2025 RECRUITING CLASS

This is not an impressive haul. Though, the philosophy here is to scout and develop talent from within. They aren’t going simply on star ratings from the recruiting services. They have just one four-star coming in and that’s safety Carson Lawrence from Ohio. They nab a couple of highly thought of linebackers in Austin Howard and Josiah Broxton. Overall, this won’t rate as a talented class.

Here is a snapshot of the 2025 Recruiting Class+ with a link to the live page with updates throughout the cycle:

2025 Vanderbilt Recruiting Class+ >

|||||| 2025 SCHEDULE LOOK AHEAD

Their series with the Hokies moves to Blacksburg and that will be a tough matchup in week two to get started. They get to exact revenge on that Georgia State squad in Nashville this year and that result can be expected to be reversed. The other non-conference game is another winnable one against Utah State. They have some tough SEC road trips, including to Columbia (South Carolina), Tuscaloosa (Alabama), Austin (Texas) and Knoxville (Tennessee). Overall, it’s no picnic (again).

There is a lot of movement and decisions to be made throughout the off-season, including more portal moves, winter workouts and spring ball. Get all caught up with the full-on State of the Chart Magazine coming in July. If you missed the ad before, get more information and give us your e-mail to stay in the loop on everything SOTC!

State of the Chart Magazine >

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