SOTC Update: Oregon Ducks

A dream season came crashing to a haul in the Rose Bowl. What can Dan Lanning and company do in 2025 to finish the job? This is the State of the Chart™ update for the Oregon Ducks.

Feb 25, 2025

State of the Chart™ Recap Edition

Live All-In Ranking: 2nd
Offense: 1st
Defense: 10th
2024 Results: 13-1 (9-0 in Big Ten)

All of the information that follows is just the beginning and everything will be updated in our first edition of the State of the Chart™ digital magazine. Slated for a launch in July of 2025, learn more about this and shoot us your email to be kept up-to-speed on launch dates and receive sneak previews…

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|||||| STATE OF THE CHART™ SUMMARY

Dan Lanning went into this season with a loaded roster, a new quarterback and expectations to win a National Title. They survived and early scare from Boise State and Ashton Jeanty in week two in Eugene and it was a nice little wake-up call. That run defense would be a bit of an achilles heel when it came time to playing the big-time opposition. They stole a win over Ohio State at home in a game they really should have lost — on their way to an undefeated regular season. They handled Penn State in what turned out to be a shootout in the Big Ten Championship game and got the bye as the No. 1 overall seed in the first 12-game College Football Playoff. Their draw was unfortunate as they got the Buckeyes and were manhandled from start-to-finish in the Rose Bowl to end what appeared to be a dream season. Whatever the reason for the faltering in Southern California, they need to find a way to get over that hump and turn all of this talent that is coming in — into a National Champion. Once again, they will go through a lot of talent churn, but should still field one of the elite rosters in the land. They are putting a lot of trust in Dante Moore to take over at quarterback. If that hits and the defense makes some adjustments, we should see the Ducks right back in the mix in the Big Ten and playing for that ultimate prize — which has become the expectation here.

|||||| HEAD COACH AND COACHING STAFF

Dan Lanning was the perfect fit for the Ducks and now that he has the program clicking on all cylinders, they just need to get over that National Title hump. Lanning has a staff full of up-and-comers and is keeping them around. They will again lose a lot of talent; but they did last year and finished the regular season undefeated and ranked No. 1. Expect more of the same in 2025; the only difference is the hopes it ends with a win.

Coaching Staff Notes / Changes:

Offensive coordinator Will Stein is just 36-years old and has the keys to one of the best offenses in all of college football. He is considered one of the bright minds and is a sure-fire future head coach (if that’s what he wants), but for now is sticking it out in Eugene with Lanning. He’ll have some new toys to work with and more he can take the new puzzle pieces and build it back up, the reputation only grows.
Defensive coordinator Tosh Lupoi made the jump from the NFL a few years ago and has since commandeered this defensive unit that is right there with the offense as an elite unit. He is known as a terrific recruiter with a pipeline to Southern California. He will remain in his position as DC and linebackers coach for his third season in 2025.
The only on-field change right now is swapping one young, up-and-coming wide receivers coach with another young, up-and-coming wide receivers coach. Junior Adams left the program to take the wide receivers job for the NFL’s Dallas Cowboys. Lanning moved quickly to grab Syracuse wide receivers coach and pass game coordinator, Ross Douglas. Douglas will keep the role of pass game coordinator for the Ducks and continues to move his career path forward.

Note: This is a “dynamic” article; meaning we will update any information that comes in this “off-season” and post a note when impactful moves are made or news breaks.

|||||| 2024 SCHEDULE / RESULTS ANALYSIS

The Ducks went undefeated in the regular season and our SOS+ metric says they had the benefit of an easier slate comparatively to other Big Ten slates. They avoided Penn State in the regular season, but got them in the Big Ten Championship, where they handled them in a shootout to “earn” the bye in the CFP. As luck would have it, they get the hottest team, who rested the week of the Big Ten title game, had a warm-up game against Tennessee and revenge on their minds. Ohio State routed the Ducks at the Rose Bowl to end this undefeated season. Just like that. We probably should have seen it coming. The Buckeyes got a needed wake-up call from the Michigan loss in the regular season finale, putting their focus back where it needed to be. Sure, the Ducks beat the Buckeyes back in week seven in Eugene, by one point, but post-game win expectancy (PGWE) says they should not have won that game.

||||||| POSITION GROUP CHECK-INS

OFFENSE: Will Stein’s offensive unit was the most talented group by our ratings system, derived of player ratings and rotational playing time. The interesting thing about this offense is that they almost seemed to hold back a bit. They were slightly one-dimensional and the surface stats left some to be desired. Their 34.9 points per game was 17th in FBS. Their 6.39 yards per play was 20th. It’s not like their numbers were off the charts like other Ducks offenses we’ve seen in the recent past. They made the adjustment at quarterback from Bo Nix to Dillon Gabriel. It worked just fine. The offensive line was good, but not elite. The run game was actually somewhat middling, putting up 157.9 rush yards per game (72nd) and 4.43 yards per tote (63rd). Passing was where it was at — they put up 8.5 yards per attempt, which ranked 14th in FBS. Again, none of these numbers entered the top ten. They were explosive in the pass game — 46 plays of over 30 yards — but were not in the run game with just six such chunk plays. They made their hay with effciency in the red zone, scoring touchdowns 73% of the time (13th) and were great on third down (48.6% conversion rate). You get that with a veteran quarterback.

||| QB

Dillon Gabriel came in from Oklahoma and replaced Bo Nix with little disruption. They were thinking ahead here and landed UCLA transfer and former 5-star with a little experience in Dante Moore in last year’s transfer class. It appears he will take the role in 2025. He was able to learn for a year under Gabriel. He’ll need to prove it, but the stage is set. Austin Novosad is the backup.

||| RB

It’s difficult to imagine that this talented group had any struggles, but it wasn’t always that easy. Jordan James pulled away from Noah Whittington as the leader and showed out with over 1,200 yards and 15 touchdowns. He is heading to play on Sundays and Whittington is joined by big-time transfer back Makhi Hughes, coming in from Tulane. Expect Hughes to play the James role with Whittington remaining the backup and change-of-pace. There shouldn’t be any drop off here.

||| WR

This group was talented and deep. Evan Stewart came in from A&M and was a nice compliment to the leader Tez Johnson. Traeshon Holden (former Alabama) also played a big role here. With Johnson and Holden heading to the NFL — Stewart will be asked to take on that No. 1 option role going forward. They bring in Malik Benson from Florida State to play a role and expect Justius Lowe to become a highly targeted slot option for this turned over passing game. They get 5-star Dakorien Moore coming in and could see the field right away.

||| TE

Terrance Ferguson was a big part of this offense with Patrick Herbert chipping in and playing a secondary role — more as a blocker. Both move on and they replace Ferguson by bringing in one of our highest rated players in the portal in Jamari Johnson from Louisville. Meanwhile, Kenyon Sadiq was a true sophomore last year and chipped in with 25 catches (on 27 targets!) for over 300 yards and a couple of touchdowns. These two should create a dynamic 1-2 combination and be very involved in this offense.

||| OL

This was a really good group and highly rated, however, they didn’t perform at all times like an elite unit. They will go through a complete re-build with four of the five primary starters moving on. Only center Iapani Laloulu returns. They hit the portal early and bring in two stars to help fill spots with Alex Harkey (Texas State) and Emmanuel Pregnon (USC) joining up. Isaiah World (Nevada) is another solid addition, who may earn a starting spot as well. They have the pieces they need — now it will be about creating the cohesion needed to perform at a high level.

DEFENSE: Similar to the offense, this was a super talented group of players, yet the final numbers won’t knock your socks off. They allowed just 19.4 points per game (16th in FBS) and held opponents to 315.9 yards per game (15th), but the yards/play was at 5.14 (36th) — as the offense sustained drives and this group got off the field on third downs (65.3% stop rate). They gave a little more room on the ground than they did through the air but they got in the backfield and that fueled this success. They recorded 40 sacks (16th) and 84 tackles for loss. They could have cut back on the explosive plays as they ended to give up too many of them, especially on the ground (18 run plays of over 30 yards). The criticism is that when they faced the tougher offenses, they were more exposed. Boise State scored 34 on them in that scare in week two. Ohio State put up 31 and 41 in their two meetings and Penn State put up 37 in the Big Ten Championship. They were good; not great.

||| DL

This was a really strong group, led by the fearsome foursome of Matayo Uiagalelei, Derrick Harmon, Jordan Burch and Jamaree Caldwell. Three of the four are heading to the NFL with Uiagalelei the only returner. They were hoping Caldwell could get another year and return via the Pavia rule, but that isn’t likely to materialize. They will need some young players to step up into roles and maybe this can be the place that can unlock the talent of one Bear Alexander, coming in from USC via the portal.

||| LB

Another super talented and deep group, led by Teitum Tuioti and Bryce Boettcher, with Jeffrey Bassa manning the middle. Bassa moves on to the NFL and three contributors are also not returning due to leaving via the portal and graduations. With Tuioti, Boettcher and Devon Jackson returning, they will have a solid front lines with other young players asked to step into roles. They should be able to match their output in 2025.

||| DB

This is a full rebuild from a really talented group of defensive backs. The only player returning with really any meaningful playing time is Daylen Austin, a redshirt freshman who was way down the rotation. That’s scary, but they hit the portal hard to bring in three starter-quality players, led by Northwestern transfer CB Theron Johnson. Looking down the depth chart, there are plenty players with high upsides ready to step up into roles as well. They will avoid disaster here and get this group playing at a high level.

SPECIAL TEAMS: This unit was not ‘special’ but got the job done. The punt return unit allowed a pretty high average on returns at 14.0 yards per return when punter Ross James allowed them. Kicker Atticus Sappington was pretty good, hitting 14/16 field goals — but missed as many PATs as field goals, two. Both will return for 2025. They have plenty of dynamic options to return kicks and Tez Johnson handled those duties primarily in ‘24. Gary Bryant Jr. chipped in there too. Johnson moves on so expect Bryant to become the primary in ‘25.

Reader feedback is requested and encouraged! Who knows these teams better than their passionate fan bases? We don’t pretend to know it all and would love your feedback. We will update/edit based (and credit) for anything that is brought to our attention. Let’s do this together…

|||||| TRANSFER PORTAL TRACKER

This looks like a success as they managed to get some big time transfers, led by RB Makhi Hughes, TE Jamari Johnson and OL Alex Harkey. They also hit the defensive backs hard as they need to rebuild that unit. They got three really good ones in Theron Johnson (Northwestern), Dillon Thieneman (Purdue) and Jadon Canady (Ole Miss). The impact losses were limited to DL Emar’rion Winston (Baylor) and DB Tyler Turner (BYU).

Below is a screen shot of the full, live Transfer Portal Tracker over at CFBDepth.com. Click the image or the button below to view it in its entirety…

Live Oregon Portal Tracker >

|||||| 2025 RECRUITING CLASS

This group is not quite up to the level Oregon is used to seeing with their recruiting classes. However, they do get two impact 5-stars who could play right away with WR Dakorien Moore out of Texas and CB Na’eem Offord from Maryland. They are a national brand who can recruit out of anywhere. They likely aren’t done as they tend to pull some flips before it is all said and done.

Here is a snapshot of the 2025 Recruiting Class+ with a link to the live page with updates throughout the cycle:

2025 Oregon Recruiting Class+ >

|||||| 2025 SCHEDULE LOOK AHEAD

They had enough of Ohio State in 2024, playing them twice, so they avoid the Buckeyes — at least in the regular season. They do have to travel cross-country to Happy Valley (Penn State) in week five, which should be their real first test of the season. They get the bye following that trip and then get Indiana traveling up to Eugene. Even if they lose that Penn State game, there are not two other losses on this schedule outside of a major collapse. They should handle this and get back into the CFP mix in 2025.

There is a lot of movement and decisions to be made throughout the off-season, including more portal moves, winter workouts and spring ball. Get all caught up with the full-on State of the Chart Magazine coming in July. If you missed the ad before, get more information and give us your e-mail to stay in the loop on everything SOTC!

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