SOTC Update: USC Trojans

After an 11-win first season in LA, Lincoln Riley's Trojans have slipped into mediocrity. The move to the Big Ten was not timed properly. Now, can they get this turned around?

Mar 07, 2025

State of the Chart™ Recap Edition

Live All-In Ranking: 34th
Offense: 29th
Defense: 42nd
2024 Results: 7-6 (4-5 in Big Ten)

The following information is just the beginning and everything will be updated in our first edition of the State of the Chart™ digital magazine. Slated for a launch in July of 2025, learn more about this and shoot us your email to be kept up-to-speed on launch dates and receive sneak previews…

Our paid subscribers at Substack receive the full magazine at no cost.

|||||| STATE OF THE CHART™ SUMMARY

After a slip-up following an 11-win first season under Lincoln Riley, the most popular viewpoint around this program was that they needed the defense to be decent — not great — but solid, and this would return to elite territory. They brought in highly sought-after defensive coordinator D’Anton Lynn to do just that. And he did. So, how did they slip another game to win just seven in 2024? Well, the offense took a step back in the post-Caleb Williams era, and they didn’t win close games. Between the byes, in the thick of the Big Ten schedule, they lost five of seven games by a total of 19 points. This could have looked a lot different. It’s not like they were completely unlucky in those games; our deserved wins (dWIN) metric says that they got what they deserved, at least close to it, with a 7.2 mark. So, now the slide must stop, and the upward trajectory begins again. The focus in the off-season is on bulking up the personnel department, led by former Notre Dame GM Chad Bowden. He brought in some other up-and-coming scouting peers, and they will be off and running. Obviously, the talent will be there. It’s just a matter of putting it all together and having the offense and defensive units click at the same time. If that happens, we could see a special season — and, preferably, that would happen in the next couple of years.

|||||| HEAD COACH AND COACHING STAFF

Lincoln Riley took a leap three years ago making the move from Oklahoma to USC. He was brought here to win championships. Things started out great, taking a four-win team directly to 11 wins in 2022. Caleb Williams had a lot to do with that. Since then, they’ve been sliding. He even addressed the defensive side of the ball for 2024 and while that improved, the offense cratered. His new focus in on the player personnel staff, which is interesting because attracting talent hasn’t been the issue here. They need to put it all together here and when/if they do, it will be special.

Coaching Staff Notes/Changes:

The biggest news of the coaching carousel for the Trojans was luring General Manager Chad Bowden away from Notre Dame. He is considered one of the best in the space and the hope is that he continues to build this roster into a championship caliber and then it’s up to the on-field coaches to get the most out of them on Saturdays. That’s been the issue. It hasn’t all come together just yet.
Offensive coordinator and offensive line coach Josh Henson is moving from his post in LA and reunites with Barry Odom at Purdue. He’ll be the Boilermakers offensive play caller. Henson worked with Odom for six years at Missouri. He now will get a chance to call plays. Riley added the OC title to quarterbacks coach Luke Huard’s plate — though, we all know Riley is will remain the play caller.
Associate head coach and linebackers coach, Matt Entz, took the head coaching job at Fresno State. He is replaced by veteran Rob Ryan.
Chad Savage was hired away from his post at Colorado State as inside wide receivers and tight ends coach.
Trovon Reed joins the staff as cornerbacks coach after one season coaching the corners at UCF. Prior to that stint, he was in a player personnel role at Auburn.

Note: This is a “dynamic” article; meaning we will update any information that comes in this “off-season” and post a note when impactful moves are made or news breaks.

|||||| 2024 SCHEDULE / RESULTS ANALYSIS

If there is one thing you can’t question about the USC program, it is that they certainly don’t take it easy on themselves when it comes to their schedule. That was borne from their Pac-12 days and needing to make sure they played a slate worthy of National Championship consideration. Their rivalry with Notre Dame contributes to that and playing a usual SEC power, LSU, is another. Then, you move to the Big Ten and add in a nine-game slate that features some of the best teams in the country. Put that together and you have the fourth toughest schedule in the land, according to our SOS+ metric. They did avoid their former Pac-12 brothers in Eugene (Oregon) and did not play the eventual National Champion, Ohio State — or else, this would have topped the list. Beating LSU in the opener on a neutral field was supposed to set this up for a big season. Instead, they dropped four of their first five Big Ten games. Those four losses were by a total of 14 points. Post-game win expectancy (PGWE) says that the only one of those they really should have won is the one-point loss to Maryland in week eight. That travel to College Park, MD was their longest trip of the year and those air miles could have been worse. They finished strong with a nice win in the bowl game against a depleted Texas A&M team.

||||||| POSITION GROUP CHECK-INS

OFFENSE: It’s not often that a Lincoln Riley-led offense is considered a reason why the team as a whole didn’t perform up to expectations. But, here we are. Losing a superstar at quarterback (Caleb Williams) is never fun to deal with, but it’s not like it snuck up on them. Miller Moss was given the keys to this offense and it never took off. He put up numbers, partially because of their game plan that includes plenty of throws. Eventually, the Trojans turned to UNLV transfer Jayden Maiava. He led them to more wins and brought a different style that seemed to click a bit more. Looking at this profile, they probably should have adjusted a bit more. They ran the football with good success, getting 5.16 yards per carry (23rd in FBS), but went that route just 41.3% of the time. Only four teams ran it less. We will admit that running success is helped by defenses preparing more for that aerial attack. The offensive line was really pretty solid, despite all of the passing plays, they allowed just 15 sacks. They were good in the red zone, turning those opportunities into touchdowns 71% of the time (23rd). They also converted third downs at a high rate (44.9%) to extend drives. What they were not: explosive. This is usually one of the highest-powered offenses that can score from anywhere on the field. In 2024, they managed just 45 explosive plays (30+ yards). Maiava returns for 2025 and Riley is not one to sit on his hands and let his offense fall into mediocrity.

||| QB

Miller Moss won the job and was performing decently through the first half of the season. But, they weren’t winning games. The move to Jayden Maiava was done for multiple reasons. They needed to see what they have going forward and he passed the test. He was not quite Caleb Williams dynamic — but he did lead them to more wins. Maiava returns and has two years of eligibility remaining. Moss moves on to Louisville and Sam Huard joins on from Utah to likely be the backup. Husan Longstreet is a five-star recruit and considered the future here.

||| RB

They brought in Woody Marks from Mississippi State, and he took to the role as the lead back. He was good as both a runner and receiver out of the backfield. He moves on after a great college career. Quinten Joyner got plenty of touches, and the route cleared to the top of the depth chart, but he left for Texas Tech. Bryan Jackson and A’Marion Peterson are the only two returning with any carries from ‘24. Eli Sanders comes in from New Mexico (via Iowa State) to hopefully pull a Woody Marks in ‘25.

||| WR

This was a young, talented group, and while nobody jumped out as a star, they combined to handle the volume coming their way in this offense. Zach Branch caught the most passes but was a possession receiver. He will take his talents to Athens, Georgia next year. Makai Lemon caught an alarming number of his targets (52 of 67) and will step into the No. 1 role for 2025. Ja’Kobi Lane caught 12 touchdowns. They were also deep and that depth will be tested with so many transfers. They lose Branch (Georgia), Kyron Hudson (Penn State), and Duce Robinson (Florida State) to the portal. Kyle Ford graduates. With Lemon and Lane returning, Prince Strachan from Boise State is the only portal addition. It wouldn’t surprise if they added another to this mix during the spring window.

||| TE

Lake McRee was solid but certainly not great. He was serviceable as a blocker and chipped in with 24 grabs for over 200 yards. He didn’t score a touchdown. The tight end position is not the lynchpin of this offense, but having a good one adds a dimension. McRee returns after an injury-impacted season. They added 4-star recruits in the last two classes — namely Walker Lyons and Joey Olsen — who will be asked to replace backup Kade Eldridge, who is transferring out to Washington.

||| OL

This was a solid unit, but also appeared to be unbalanced. Looking from center to the left side, it was good with Jonah Monheim at center, Emmanuel Pregnon at LG, and Elijah Paige at LT. The right side was more challenged, with Alani Noa and Mason Murphy facing more struggles. They will lose Monheim and Pregnon (Oregon), and Murphy (Auburn) transfer out. DJ Wingfield (Purdue) and J’Ontre Reed (Syracuse) are coming in to fill holes, but there is a lot of work to do here to get it back to the level of a year ago.

DEFENSE: The splash hire last off-season was getting D’Anton Lynn to take over this defense after an impressive showing at cross-town rival UCLA. He made the move and was given much more talent to work with, but the challenge was still there. It’s not just talent you need — you need ‘want to,’ and Lynn was brought in to provide that. They needed that motivation and cohesion into a fearsome unit. Skipping ahead, it was undoubtedly better. It was not great, but plenty of room for improvement remains. The most glaring weakness is that they didn’t create much havoc in the backfield. It’s worth noting they did face a consistent barrage of top offensive lines this season, but they need more than 53 tackles in the backfield (119th in FBS) and 21 sacks (100th). They were good at getting off the field on third down (65.5% of the time; ranked 21st) and limited explosive plays in the passing game. It allowed 24.1 points per game against several good offenses, down from 34.4 a year ago. That’s improvement and a good first step. Now, can they take the next one in 2025?

||| DL

Lynn likes to rotate a lot and get fresh bodies in there. This one went about 11 deep, with players making an impact beyond the occasional spell, and nobody played more than half the time. True freshman Kameryn Fountain emerged in the second half as a revelation and appears to be on track to become a star here. Braylan Shelby also played a big role. Those two return to the top of the depth chart, and while they will lose quite a few to graduation and a couple to transfer, they bring in similar talents, and you can expect similar output in 2025. Though, a step up would be preferred.

||| LB

Easton Mascarenas-Arnold never left the field, and he was effective in most parts of his game but appeared to get lost when asked to drop into coverage. He and his running mate, Mason Cobb, were invited to step up without the injured Eric Gentry. Gentry took a medical redshirt and will return in 2025. They still need to replace more in the middle, and it may come from in-house, with Desman Stephens II getting some decent run as a true freshman, but needs to grow into a full-time role. It would not surprise if they bring in another body (or two) from the spring portal to supplement here.

||| DB

Look at this exodus. It was a talented group and a big reason for the turnaround on the defensive side. They will lose eight major contributors due to graduations and a well-known transfer of Zion Branch to Georgia. They get their star back in FS Kamari Ramsey, who came over from UCLA and was an outstanding player for them in 2024. This was the area most directly focused on in the portal, with two big impact players in DJ Harvey (San Jose State) and Bishop Fitzgerald (NC State). The rest will come from in-house progression, and it must come quickly.

SPECIAL TEAMS: Michael Lantz missed seven field goals and that prompted a quick move in the portal to bring in Caden Chittenden from UNLV. Those two will battle for the job in 2025. Eddie Czaplicki was a darn good punter and will be missed as he runs out of eligibility. If they fill that spot in-house, it would be Rey Sanchez. We don’t have a lot on him at this point. Zach Branch was the primary punt returner and while he was solid, he was not quite the dynamic presence they had hoped for. He moves on to Georgia and Makai Lemon is likely to step into that role in 2025.

Reader feedback is requested and encouraged! Who knows these teams better than their passionate fan bases? We don’t pretend to know it all and would love your feedback. We will update/edit based (and credit) for anything that is brought to our attention. Let’s do this together…

|||||| TRANSFER PORTAL TRACKER

This is not looking great at time of publish with much more talent heading out than that coming in. The two top departing by our ratings are QB Miller Moss and K Denis Lynch, neither of whom would impact the rotation or depth chart. The next level includes some players that would have been nice to keep around, like RB Quinten Joyner, WR Duce Robinson and OL Emmanuel Pregnon. They also had a couple of defensive linemen, who would have certainly impacted things in some way, move out as well. Another thing to keep in mind is that they are most certainly not done. The hiring of GM Chad Bowden came after most of these moves have been made and we would think that he’d like to make his impact felt as the Trojans look to be very active in the spring portal window.

Below is a screen shot of the full, live Transfer Portal Tracker over at CFBDepth.com. Click the image or the button below to view it in its entirety…

Live USC Portal Tracker >

|||||| 2025 RECRUITING CLASS

They sure can recruit. This class is no different. The stars of the group are QB Husan Longstreet (Corona, CA), who brings a dual-threat capability with arm strength to match. Like most his age, he needs to hone his passing skills, but has all the tools to be the next great SC quarterback. On the defensive side, they land Jahkeem Stewart out of Louisiana. He is a big body who can play on the interior and move to the outside if needed. He will get in the backfield and stop the run. He’s green but certainly has NFL potential. The rest of the class actually hails primarily out-of-state, with just three others residing in California. Overall, it looks like a top ten class as they focus on beefing up those lines of scrimmage.

Here is a snapshot of the 2025 Recruiting Class+ with a link to the live page with updates throughout the cycle:

2025 USC Recruiting Class >

|||||| 2025 SCHEDULE LOOK AHEAD

They will welcome Missouri State to Coliseum for their entrance in the FBS ranks to kick things off. After that should-be blowout, they get an upset-minded Georgia Southern squad to come to town. There could be 100+ passes thrown in that one. The rest of the schedule lines up pretty favorably, with Michigan having to come to LA and they again avoid Ohio State. They also trade-in Penn State. Their road trips again keep them off the east coast (ie: no Rutgers, Maryland). They do have to go to South Bend for that rivalry game and that will be a tough one. Overall, again, it could be a lot worse.

There is a lot of movement and decisions to be made throughout the off-season, including more portal moves, winter workouts and spring ball. Get all caught up with the full-on State of the Chart Magazine coming in July. If you missed the ad before, get more information and give us your e-mail to stay in the loop on everything SOTC!

State of the Chart Magazine >

We hope you enjoyed this content. Please subscribe, re-stack, share, and spread the word of this little endeavor. This fuels our work each and every day and keeps us going. Thank you.

Share CFBDepth’s Substack

Big Ten Conference
2/19: Ohio State Buckeyes
2/20: Michigan Wolverines
2/21: Penn State Nittany Lions
2/22: Indiana Hoosiers
2/23: Wisconsin Badgers
2/24: Northwestern Wildcats
2/25: Oregon Ducks
2/26: Nebraska Cornhuskers
2/27: Minnesota Golden Gophers
2/28: Iowa Hawkeyes
3/1: Michigan State Spartans
3/2: Maryland Terrapins
3/3: Purdue Boilermakers
3/4: Rutgers Scarlet Knights
3/5: Illinois Fighting Illini

CFBDepth’s Substack