SOTC Update: TCU Horned Frogs

Sonny Dykes got the Frogs back after a down 2023, which followed a National Title appearance. With a good amount of talent returning to Fort Worth, the Frogs should be in the Big XII mix once again.

Mar 09, 2025

State of the Chart™ Recap Edition

Live All-In Ranking: 25th
Offense: 26th
Defense: 34th
2024 Results: 9-4 (6-3 in Big XII)

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|||||| STATE OF THE CHART™ SUMMARY

After an improbable run to the National Championship game in 2022 — the Frogs took a substantial step back in 2023, winning just five games. The defense was the primary culprit, and head coach Sonny Dykes addressed that in the off-season with the hiring of Andy Avalos, the former Boise State head coach, as their defensive coordinator. That move paid big dividends in 2024, ultimately seeing them rise to the nine-win plateau and back into the conversation for a Big XII title. Those nine wins were earned, and had they had better turnover luck (-6), it could have turned some of those close losses into wins. All told, nine wins look to be what they deserved. The defense was highlighted by a pass defense that slowed some of the better passing offenses in the Big XII (please ignore that 66-point outburst by SMU in week four). On offense, Kendal Briles threw it a lot and trusted quarterback Josh Hoover to execute. The run game was a glaring weakness, and it forced them to become one-dimensional. That will need to change in 2025 if the Frogs are to take that step back up to the level of a CFP contender. One thing is for sure, Dykes and company know how to collect talent in Fort Worth and win football games. We should see them in the conversation towards the end of the season if they can get through an early gauntlet in the schedule.

|||||| HEAD COACH AND COACHING STAFF

Sonny Dykes quickly addressed the issues that plagued them in the follow-up to the National Title game appearance back in 2022. The 2024 version featured a revamped defense under new leadership and a host of new players from the portal to get them back to the nine-win plateau. One can reasonably expect this level and his staff in 2025 and beyond.

Coaching Staff Notes/Changes:

The change to former Boise State head coach Andy Avalos to run the defense was a winner. He got this unit back on track and they delivered a top-25 season by most measurements.
That defensive improvement jives with the offense, that never relented much under Dykes and offensive coordinator Kendal Briles. Keeping both coordinators around for 2025 is a big win for the Frogs.
The only new face in a lead role is Tre Watson joining from Cal, where he was defensive backs coach the past four seasons. He will coach the safeties and added defensive passing game coordinator responsibilities here at TCU.
The Frogs stuck it to their rivals Baylor by grabbing their former star wide receiver Corey Coleman, naming him assistant wide receivers coach.

Note: This is a “dynamic” article; meaning we will update any information that comes in this “off-season” and post a note when impactful moves are made or news breaks.

|||||| 2024 SCHEDULE / RESULTS ANALYSIS

This one came in as the 64th most difficult in FBS on our SOS+ scale. The one-point loss to UCF in week three did not age well as they got the Knights at the wrong time. They did, however, get Kansas at the right time as the Jayhawks were better by the end of the season. They lost a toss-up to their rivals (Baylor) on the road in Waco, then stole the toss-up in Cincinnati. They finished strong with four wins, including a route of Louisiana in the bowl game. All told, the nine wins were well deserved according to our deserved wins metric (dWIN) at 8.9 on the season.

||||||| POSITION GROUP CHECK-INS

OFFENSE: True to form, the Kendal Briles offense relied on the pass a lot more than most. They did it well, both in compiled full-game numbers — 312.9 yards/game (ranked 8th) and in efficiency at 8.3 yards per pass (20th). They also were explosive with 52 pass plays of over 30 yards. The run game held them back as it didn’t provide much of a reason for opponents to respect it and could dedicate resources to try to stop that passing attack, posting just 3.7 yards per attempt on the ground. The cumulative talent metrics of the offensive line tracks, as they were good in pass pro (47th) and struggled in run schemes (100th). They allowed just 16 sacks on the season. Ultimately, they finished at 33.5 points per game (23rd) had just a couple of clunkers through out the season — a 19-point performance against Houston and 13 against a good Utah defense. They did a nice job on red zone trips, converting 74% of them into touchdowns (10th) and also were 18-for-23 (78.3%) converting on fourth downs (3rd).

||| QB

Josh Hoover took the keys full-time to the Briles offense and worked it to near perfection, throwing for nearly 4,000 yards and 27 touchdowns. Other than some ill-advised throws, he put up some impressive numbers. Ken Seals returns as the backup, and Adam Schobel, a 4-star from Columbus, Texas, joins up in the class of ‘25. Big things are expected from Hoover and this offense in 2025.

||| RB

Cam Cook was the talk of the town in summer camp, and the sophomore was poised to take on this starting role and make a big impact. He did, at first, then slowed to the point that he was sharing carries as a part of a deep committee. Jeremy Payne, a true freshman, emerged as the season wore on, but it was a struggle for all of these backs. Cook transfers out to Jacksonville State, and Kevorian Barnes comes in from UTSA to participate in a likely committee approach again in ‘25.

||| WR

There was plenty of talent in this room, and they also saw plenty of volume coming their way. Jack Bech and Savion Williams were the first options, followed by JP Richardson (slot) and former Boise State Bronco Eric McAlister. With the top three leaving, McAlister can take on the lead role in ‘25. Jordyn Bailey was a redshirt freshman who worked as the backup slot receiver and may be asked to jump into that spot. They bring in two transfers with FCS transfer Jordan Dwyer, who caught 1,200 yards worth at Idaho last year, and Joseph Manjack V from Houston.

||| TE

Drake Dabney came over from Baylor and was supposed to be the primary target in this group. And, he was, but he didn’t really take hold and own it. He returns but he underlying numbers also say there are better options in the blocking game. DJ Rogers was better as a blocker in the run game and caught two touchdowns. Chase Curtis chipped in and also showed better limited snaps. Everybody returns Ka’Morreun Pimpton comes in from LSU and will factor in the mix.

||| OL

This was a solid group with only one spot that struggled and that was right tackle where Ben Taylor-Whitfield had his moments. Michael Nichols showed better in limited snaps there but graduates. One tackle comes in via the portal from FCS Incarnate Word but he does not have the pedigree of a starter in the Big 12. LT Bless Harris (eligibility) and C James Brockermeyer (transfer to Miami) must also be replaced and we don’t see those players on the roster right now. It appears they’ll need to bulk up here to keep pace.

DEFENSE: The move at defensive coordinator paid off right away, with former Boise State head coach Andy Avalos taking over the unit. They did bring in a lot of talent to help out, but it was crafted nicely into a unit that allowed just 24.6 points per game and accomplished that feat led by a stifling secondary that allowed just 185.2 yards/game (23rd) and just 6.0 yards per attempt (8th). Opponents found more success on the ground, but it’s not like this was a Swiss cheese unit, as 4.21 yards per tote ranks 68th nationally. They could have been better on third down, allowing a 56.7% success rate, but we’re just looking for warts now. That said, the most obvious wart was that 66-point outburst by SMU in week four that everybody would like to forget. Overall, this was an impressive unit in 2024 and while they lose a few key components, as usual, they have enough returning to repeat this success.

||| DL

Devean Deal led the defensive line group, accumulating six sacks on the season. They trade off returners and graduates in this unit. Deal returns, but former Notre Dame DE Nana Osafo-Mensah runs out of eligibility. They get back Markis Deal and Zachary Chapman but lose Caleb Fox and Cooper McDonald (four sacks in just nine games). Ansel Din-Mbuh and his seven sacks from ‘24 come in from Washington State and will provide some pressure. This should look similarly solid as a year ago.

||| LB

All four who contributed to this rotation were of similar mold, that is to say, they were sound tacklers and all chipped into that pass coverage that was so good. Namdi Obiazor never really left the field, with Johnny Hodges as his primary running mate. Kaleb Elarms-Orr and Max Carroll chipped in as backups, but the drop-off was not seen or felt as they performed on par. They lose Hodges, but the other three return and this should remain a strength of the defense.

||| DB

The gold star goes to this secondary that featured Bud Clark, who graded out at PFF as one of the top safeties in the country. He was a full-time player and behind him was a primary rotation of eight more high-performers. Clark returns, along with S Jamel Johnson, but they’ll need to replace nickel Abe Camara and CB LaMareon James. Channing Canada should step into a full-time corner spot and they hit the portal to get a good one in Elijah Jackson from Washington. With Clark leading the way again, this should remain elite.

SPECIAL TEAMS: Kyle Lemmerman took hold of the place kicker job as a true freshman and did okay, hitting 15/22. He was not trusted much beyond 50 yards, missing his only attempt. Ethan Craw was a really good punter and both will return for 2025. Losing JP Richardson as the primary punt returner will hurt as he was one of the best.

Reader feedback is requested and encouraged! Who knows these teams better than their passionate fan bases? We don’t pretend to know it all and would love your feedback. We will update/edit based (and credit) for anything that is brought to our attention. Let’s do this together…

|||||| TRANSFER PORTAL TRACKER

They are losing more than they are bringing in this year and losing the Brockermeyer’s certainly isn’t ideal. Cam Cook’s departure is not a surprise after a disappointing season. They were strategic in their additions with Elijah Jackson taking on a key opening in the secondary and Jordan Dwyer a much needed weapon in the passing game. This won’t make or break 2025.

Below is a screen shot of the full, live Transfer Portal Tracker over at CFBDepth.com. Click the image or the button below to view it in its entirety…

Live TCU Portal Tracker >

|||||| 2025 RECRUITING CLASS

Dykes and his staff put together a large class (28 commits) and really knocked it out of the park on the defensive side with 17 of the commits spread throughout the defensive side of the ball. Four of their six 4-star commits are from Texas and EDGE Chad Woodfork has the potential to become a star in Fort Worth. Dykes remains at his roots a scout, recruit and develop guy and he’s bringing in plenty of talent to work with here.

Here is a snapshot of the 2025 Recruiting Class+ with a link to the live page with updates throughout the cycle:

2025 TCU Recruiting Class+ >

|||||| 2025 SCHEDULE LOOK AHEAD

At first glance, this is a bit tougher than it was a year ago as that showdown with North Carolina in Bill Belechick’s first game will take center stage in week one. They get a bye immediately following that game, should cruise past Abiline Christian and then start a brutal start to the Big XII slate with SMU, at Arizona State, Colorado and at Kansas State. There are no real ‘breaks’ in this one and they will need to bring it each week to get back to that nine-win plateau in 2024.

There is a lot of movement and decisions to be made throughout the off-season, including more portal moves, winter workouts and spring ball. Get all caught up with the full-on State of the Chart Magazine coming in July. If you missed the ad before, get more information and give us your e-mail to stay in the loop on everything SOTC!

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